"FOOTBALL"

Analysis & Selections by

I~SþY

 Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.   

REVIEW OF 2003/4
Friday, 06 August 2004

Last Season
A case of "close but not close enough "would be a fair reflection of the performance of the pre-season selections given by "The Spy" last season. While we hit the jackpot with the relegation of Leeds (7-1) - it was never really in any doubt during the season was it? - it was unfortunate (because the logic was right) that our selection of Leeds Peter Reid (11-1) to be the first manager to be sacked was in fact the second manager to depart after Hoddle went early at Tottenham (if Spurs had given Hoddle the full 10 games they promised before making a decision on his future it would have been very close). 

Still in the Premiership our route to riches was to back several teams (Bolton, Birmingham and Southampton at 15-1) on the handicap betting to overcome the poor value offered by the bookies on the leading sides. And how close we came! As we entered the final matches on the last day Bolton led the table and needed just a draw at home to Fulham to land the bet. They lost. Arsenal and Charlton victories relegated Bolton to third place on goal difference. How cruel! Birmingham also did well and led the table for part of the season being in close contention throughout. 

The Spy fared less well in the other divisions. The early promise of Reading (the Pardew debacle ended the hopes of the 14-1 chances) and Sheffield United (who at 10-1 could not produce their efforts of the previous season for no apparent reason) soon faded and by mid-season it was clear they would not be good enough. In Division 2, QPR (7-2) finished second and had chances of the Championship until their defeat by Plymouth who became champions by virtue of that win in the closing weeks. As the Spy had highlighted the chances of Plymouth (25-1 at the time) in week 10 of his weekly review on 17th October (which I hope more regular readers would have noticed) the disappointment was somewhat softened. In Division 3, the early promise of Yeovil (9-1) also faded away behind surprise winners Doncaster. Shrewsbury (who at 9-1 made it back to the league via the play-offs but unfortunately not as champions) and Morecombe (9-1 who simply never got going) completed the selections in the Conference. I would only say that Shrewsbury got involved in to many Cup competitions for their own good and found their resources stretched in playing catch-up with their fixture list.

The Premiership 
Our summary will be posted next week. 

Coca-Cola Championship
A variation on the national lottery catch phrase "You have got to be in it to win it" springs to mind here. I would suggest "You have got to be in it to stay in it" is a more suitable description of the somewhat negative ambitions of many of the teams contesting this "Championship". This is of course largely no fault of the clubs as the financial reality post Digital collapse remains in evidence. Brighton, Burnley, Crewe, Gillingham, QPR (the taxman is coming wielding his stick!) Rotherham and Watford will therefore bite your hand off just to stay in the division this season. Those "big" clubs with greater ambition (Leeds, Ipswich, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Derby) have to balance poor financial situations with added demands of expectant supporters for success on the pitch. However, resources often cannot support this desire and they will inevitably fall short of the promotion standard. For mainly this reason they have to be opposed as over a grueling campaign resources (strength in depth) will count at the end of the day. For example, I cannot overlook the weakness in the West Ham defence despite their promise elsewhere or the thinness of the quality Ipswich squad when injuries kick in. This has already happened to the Nottingham Forest defence as they start the season and it maybe that a slow start will undermine their campaign. Leeds (I cannot have at any price) after their wholesale clear-out - they need a season to regroup. Derby showed some promise towards the end of last season to escape the drop and can be expected to do better this time as their youthful squad grows in experience and their new buys provide further support. 

So what does this leave us as a betting opportunity? I think the three to concentrate on are Leicester, Wolves and Wigan. In discounting ambitious Cardiff this is on the grounds of a highly suspect rearguard while I'm unsure of the managerial skills of Peter Reid so cannot have Coventry. Millwall simply do not have enough strength in depth (the playing influence of 38 year old Wise may be coming to an end which will be a big loss) while Sunderland are relying more on youth and lack a regular goal-scorer. Sheffield United have a strong squad (but they did last year) and failed miserably - they could be overpriced and offer some value but I think overall they lack quality. The two Ps Preston (just average) and Plymouth (need a season to readjust) both look mid table sides to me without challenging for top honours. Reading and Stoke both have potential but I would suggest play-off spots is the best they can hope for - Reading will need a strong early part of the season as their run in is difficult. 

The gap between the Premiership and this division (whatever it is called) is a large one. The " yo- yo" principle which Crystal Palace and Leicester have mastered illustrates the gap which clubs such as these have to overcome. If Leicester succeed this year this will be the fourth time that they have re-joined the Premiership which will be a record. You have to feel that under the excellent manager (Adams) and the strengthening of their squad which their financial position has allowed can take them close. Plenty of experience buys (e.g. Dion Dublin has never let anyone down has he?) means they have the strength in depth to carry them through a long season. Wolves are similar in that they largely have kept the squad which was relegated last season which in such a moderate section overall can see them mount a serious challenge - they have a particularly strong forward line to help them on their way. They are the bookies favourites. Wigan need to recover from the heartbreak of last season when they missed the play-offs by seconds. The are very progressive for a small club and have an excellent manager. They are ambitious. They have money to spend. They have a tight defence (which they have bolstered close season with Wright signing) and are full of goals (Ellington, Roberts and Graham look a forward line to die for). That makes 12-1 (generally available) worth taking assuming that the experience from last year will also have benefited them. Wigan represent the gut feeling but it must be said that historical lessons say Leicester may be the one's to succeed at the end of the day (they are around the 7-1 mark to deliver). What may also swing it Wigan' s way is the number of Midland derbies that Leicester will be involved in which could mean points are dropped.

For those interested in handicap betting, the suggestion would be Plymouth or Derby but these are not strong enough to warrant actual recommended bets.

Recommendation
Wigan @ 12-1 (generally available) 

League 1
Resources at this level are an even greater factor. Perhaps, this is why I would describe this lot as a "modest bunch". And frankly, very little makes much appeal. The Racing Post (great pre-season guide) have sided with Barnsley' s potential (16-1) on the strength of Peter Ridsdale's money, Paul Hart's qualities as a manager and on the signings he has made. But they all have to gel and that is by no means guaranteed. And Hart cannot perform miracles (as was shown at Forrest) if the players prove to not meet the standard. Tranmere are also fancied (based on their end of season finish) and also on the signings close season including that of Jason McAteer from Sunderland. I personally am not at all convinced about McAteer being an asset - he is far more likely to be carrying out vendetta's with opposing players than playing football. He will be easily provoked. The sides to make most appeal are Bristol City, Hull, Swindon, Doncaster and Sheffield Wednesday. Of these, Hull (10-1) are all potential and are clearly going places both on and off the field. I just feel that they may need a season before progressing again based on the players at their disposal which now include England's Nick Barmby. Doncaster who came up as Champions have done excellently over the past two seasons and could provide the each way value at 25-1 (not clear to me why they should be so big compared to Hull's price). They have kept the same squad and have a fine team ethic. They again, may just lack the total quality required at this level. Swindon finished better than Tranmere last time and must go well again with the same squad except striker Mooney. He will be missed however and that could count against them at the end of the day. Bristol City who have been going well pre-season must be leading contenders (6-1 is fair) but they have now got a reputation for throwing it all away when things get tough. That may be a little harsh and I didn't think they did too much wrong at the end of last season - anyone can lose a play-off final. They need more goals and the signing of Hefferman could be crucial - otherwise they remain largely the same side as last term. One significant difference is that Brian Tinnion now takes over the hot seat - his inexperience could be a negative. So, back to resources which is where we started. There can be no greater example than Sheffield Wednesday of all that I have said previously. They have had to cut their cloth according to their new surroundings but this big club now looks ready to make its comeback. Last season they were a foolish price to win the Championship (based solely on reputation) this time the squad looks promising based on some clever close season signings and open to improvement. But this is required on the showing last year. They are 12-1which looks too big. I can quite easily see the well supported Wednesday getting on a role which may prove hard to stop. 

Recommendation
Bristol City @ 6-1 (generally) 
Sheffield Wednesday @ 12-1 (Coral and other internet outlets)

League 2
This section is quite open, again because of the overall lack of quality throughout. As the relegated sides have tended to do reasonably well the chances of Notts. County, Grimsby (who went down with 50 points), Rushden and Wycombe need to be considered carefully in this company. But each of these have made sweeping changes which means it is quite difficult to know how they will perform. The same can be said of Oxford and Bristol Rovers who you might expect to mount serious challenges at this level (and indeed they might). But, you cannot be sure. I can also see promoted Conference winners Chester having a good time of it - they won the Conference (Hereford aside) with some ease - without I suspect being quite good enough while Cheltenham have some reasonable buys and John Ward is a very astute manager to have around. They may surprise. I believe however that Northampton (have been the subject of early support), Mansfield, Yeovil and Lincoln are the four to think most closely about. Lincoln who came so close last year are a team nobody likes to face "you always know you have been in a game with them" they only need to amend their tendency to draw to go close again. But, while they are awkward and difficult to play against, that is their strength. If, they start playing with more adventure then the wheels could come off. Northampton finished well last term and this is primarily the reason for their lofty position in the betting. They are fit, young and with no little talent and are sure to be well managed. But can youth carry them through the rigours presented by a whole season? I have my doubts. We sided with the Somerset outfit last year and they gave us a good run for our money. I cannot understand how they can be a bigger price this time around. They are talented (those who saw the Liverpool FA Cup tie on BBC now this for a fact) and play lively free flowing football. They are progressive and will have learnt plenty from their experiences last term. Like Wigan have a watertight defence and can score goals for fun. Most importantly, unlike so many in this section, they are already a team and not one under construction. They have good management and a good off the field set up. They must be the bet. 

Recommendation
Yeovil @12-1 Coral
Rushden @18-1 with Hills with 25 point handicap start 

Conference 
One argument here must be to back Hereford (8-1) to repeat last season's great effort to finish 17 points beyond the third place side. They only finished one point behind Chester. Much will depend on their motivation to repeat that effort but Graham Turner is unlikely to allow any drop in standards. They have performed reasonably pre-season including drawing with their Welsh neighbours Swansea. They have a similar side in place. And to be fair the competition looks no stronger this year. The other is to back one of the new arrivals that comprise Canvey Island, Carlisle and Crawley. Canvey (who steamrollered the Ryman league) are a smart and progressive outfit. I unfortunately saw them last season when they had their foot of the pedal but they still showed me enough to know that they will be a League side soon enough. They can finish high up without winning but are definitely going places. Crawley, also decent but again may need more time to re-adjust to their surroundings. Carlisle must be a big danger but at around 4-1 do not greatly appeal. The standard in Division 3 was not good last year and Carlisle's great effort to escape must be seen in that perspective. They will have tougher games among the better sides in the Conference. Those games will be against the likes of Barnet (play-off failures) but sure to be on the scene again with their good frontline, Morecombe (our selection for the past two years), Aldershot, Stevenage, Exeter and Accrington. I also have some regard for Scarborough who are 40-1 in a place (but the reality says they should not be good enough over a whole season) but very capable on their day nonetheless. But all these are not good enough overall to trouble a focused Hereford and that is what I am banking on in making them my choice. I am also not keen on the other relegated side (York) or Woking who I saw the other day in a friendly and their defence leaves something to be desired. The others look to be making up the numbers.

Recommendation
Hereford @8-1 


I~SÞY.

This page was last updated on Saturday August 07, 2004 at 08:57:08 AM.

FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

"I SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT - is the latest addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use.  

POSTING TIME
  Selections should be available after 16.00pm on Fridays. Hopefully this helps

contents

	Preview of the 2004/2005 Football Season
	Preview of the 2003/2004 Football Season
	Something for the Weekend 2003/4- Football Bets by The Spy
	Preview of the 2002/2003 Football Season
	Something for the Weekend 2002/3- Football Bets by The Spy - Section 2
	Something for the Weekend 2002/3- Football Bets by The Spy - Section 1
	Preview of the 2001/2002 Football Season
	2001/2002 Football Bets by The Spy
	Something for the Weekend 2001- Football Bets by The Spy
	Sports Betting