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Grand National Meeting __ Day Three
1.45 Cordon Bleu Handicap Hurdle 5 years old and upwards to be run over 2miles, and 110yds, 14 runners.
1 44/2-453 Grimes 7 11 10 C Roche
2 60-2110 The French Furze (IRE) 6 11 5 M Pipe
3 0-16310 Silence Reigns 6 11 3 P Nicholls
4 11020-4 Premier Generation (IRE) 7 10 13 N Henderson
5 211FFF Nordance Prince (IRE) 9 10 13 Miss Venetia Williams
6 00-6002 Danegold (IRE) 8 10 12 M Channon
7 1F4135 Out On A Promise (IRE) 8 10 11 C Mann
8 10-6400 Kinnescash (IRE) 7 10 10 P Bowen
9 626321 Sharpaten (IRE) 5 10 9 P Hughes
10 211300 Miss Fara (FR) 5 10 4 M Pipe
11 0-31150 Redemption 5 10 3 P Webber
12 112-002 Mersey Beat 6 10 2 G L Moore
13 306-121 Dee Pee Tee Cee (IRE) 6 10 0 M W Easterby
14 316342 China Tealeaf (IRE) 8 10 0 Thomas O'Neill
Early Morning Tissue; What you'll find in your newspapers: 6 Out On A Promise, 13-2 Dee Pee Tee Cee, 7 Mersey Beat, 8 The French Furze, Sharpaten, and China Tealeaf, 10 others.
POSSIBLES - Out on a Promise, and Danegeld come here on the back of good runs in the County Hurdle. Miss Fara, Sharpaten, Premier Generation, and The French Furze have also been running well in handicap hurdles, and warrant our respect. Grimes, and Nordance Prince have rather lost their way over fences, and are on retrieval missions. Silence Reigns, Dee Pee Tee Cee, and Redemption are good novices that command respect.
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTION
Although Dee Pee Tee Cee has been running well in novice company, this is a marked step up in grade, and I find that off-putting. Similarly both Out on a Promise, and Danegeld are unpredictable, and I frankly don't trust them enough. I like Nordance Prince and Grimes, who I think both will run well, but I'm going to lay my faith in Redemption (Eachway), who if you ignore his last run, would appear to have a good chance in an open race
AN ALTERNATIVE
Grimes (Likely to be backable at eachway odds too)
WHAT ABOUT A LONG SHOT ?
2.20 Martell Red Rum Chase (A Limited Handicap) 5year olds and upwards, to be run over 2miles, 9 runners.
1 641423 Flying Instructor 10 12 0 P Webber D Gallagher
2 10-2F13 Aghawadda Gold (IRE) 8 11 11 T Tate R Garritty
3 20-1111 Samakaan (IRE) 7 11 5 Miss Venetia Williams N Williamson
4 430222 Green Green Desert (FR) 9 11 1 P Nicholls J Tizzard
5 14221-4 Clifton Beat (USA) 9 10 7 P Hobbs R Johnson
6 121331 Jungli (IRE) 7 10 7 P Webber J A McCarthy
7 P-22245 Tom Brodie 10 10 7 J Howard Johnson M A Fitzgerald
8 P134-05 Lord Dorcet (IRE) 10 10 7 J Charlton B Storey
9 331P54 Puget Blue (IRE) 7 10 7 M Morris A Maguire
Early Morning Tissue; What you'll find in your newspapers: 6-4 Samakaan, 5 Aghawadda Gold, 11-2 Green Green Desert, 7 Flying Instructor, and Clifton Beat, 8 Jungli, 14 others.
POSSIBLES -Samakaan is on a role, and I thought he was particularly impressive at Cheltenham. Aghawhadda Gold ran well there too, and will be a hard opponent to pass around this tight track. Flying Instructor ran well yesterday, and will no doubt do so again here. Jungli, Green Green Desert, and Clifton Beat, have a squeak on their best form.
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTION - Stick with the form horse, Samakaan
EACH WAY ALTERNATIVE - Clifton Beat
WHAT ABOUT A LONG SHOT ? Puget Blues
2.55 Martell Aintree Hurdle (Class A) (Grade 1)
£100000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £60000.00, 11 runners.
1 125534 Effectual 7 11 7 Miss Venetia Williams
2 631321 Geos (FR) 5 11 7 N Henderson
3 32341P His Song (IRE) 7 11 7 M Morris
4 11-3012 Hors La Loi III (FR) 5 11 7 F Doumen
5 11-2540 Katarino (FR) 5 11 7 N Henderson
6 100-553 Knife Edge (USA) 5 11 7 M O'Brien
7 61-2152 Le Sauvignon (FR) 6 11 7 J de Balanda
8 512113 Mantles Prince 6 11 7 P Hughes
9 430332 Master Beveled 10 11 7 P Evans
10 443-1F5 Mister Morose (IRE) 10 11 7 N Twiston-Davies
11 36B236 Shooting Light (IRE) 7 11 7 P Murphy
Early Morning Tissue; What you'll find in your newspapers: 4-5 Hors La Loi III, 11-2 Le Sauvignon, 8 Katarino, 14 Knife Edge, Mantles Prince, and Mister Morose, 16 others.
POSSIBLES
Hor La Loi III comes here on the back of his heroic 2nd in the Champion Hurdle, and must go well, he faces stiff opposition from his compatriot Le Sauvignon, one of the best French raiders (bar the Doumen camp) for a while. Effectual, Katarino, Knife Edge, Mister Morose, Master Beveled, and Shooting Light have run creditably in Graded races, and have chances, as do Geos, and Mantles Prince who represent the bests of the handicap form.
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTION
Not convinced about Hor La Loi III's credentials at this trip. He should get it, but he had a hard race in the Champion, and is an unattractive proposition, particularly as some of these look capable of bridging the gap at this longer trip. I have long been convinced that the handicap form this season is rock solid, and in Geos we have a horse definitely on the upgrade. The pace of the race, and the trip around this track will suit, and his rout in the Tote Gold Trophy was one of the best performances of the season. He has a better chance that on face value, and that is endorsed by Mick Fitzgerald preferring him to Katarino..... take the hint. (Obviously he is a large price so play percentages and do him eachway if you prefer)
AN ALTERNATIVE Le Sauvignon
WHAT ABOUT A LONG SHOT ? Effectual
The Grand National
4miles and 4furlongs, 40 runners
1 Young Kenny 9 12-0 P Beaumont
Not sure what to make of Young Kenney. He certainly has all the attributes I Like in a horse; he’s strong athletic, normally a sound jumper, and is an out and out stayer, you’d think I'd be more keen. Unfortunately his inconsistently bothers me, and well as the weight. His excellent defeat of Edmond at Uttoxeter, is surrounded by poor performances, and in truth if you back him, you have no guarantee of which version you’ll be getting today2 Suny Bay 11 11-12 S E H Sherwood
Comments made about Young Kenny can also be laid at Suny Bay’s door, he frankly has also hinted that he still retains his ability, and a back problem seems to has stunted any further improvement in him. A pity really since, he isn't that badly treated on his best, and he did run respectably at Doncaster last time out. Should complete, but like Young Kenny you don't know whether Aintree will rekindle his enthusiasm,... it didn't last year. 3 Escartefigue (FR) 8 11-9 P F Nicholls
Another enigma. He still retains a lot of his ability, but is also definitely not showing it. After a respectable run at Wincanton he did appear on the face of it to be very disappointing in the Midlands Grand National, though I would forgive him, since the ground can never have been the official ground quoted on the form book since so many horses were pulled out of that day’s racing. If he took to it, he has form in the book over the last two seasons to go close, but he is more of an eachway option 4 Djeddah (FR) 9 11-8 F Doumen
The Doumen camp are very sweet on this one's chances, and on his french form I could probably see why, however a fifth in the Racing Post Chase is the best he's offered on these shores recently, and only really comes into it in my view, if the ground rides on the fast side of good. Looks a safe conveyance, and he should get round, and should give his followers a good run for their money.
5 Bobbyjo 10 11-6 T Carberry
Its a demonstration of how open this race is that Bobbyjo runs off of a 5lbs higher mark in this yet has to carry this welter burden. Having watched most of his races this term, he does seem to have been laid out for this and has improved with each race, if he takes to t again I'll sure he can run well again.
6 Listen Timmy (NZ) 11 11-5 A King
Would be worth considering on the strength of last seasons form, including his win in the John Hughes Chase, but he has disapointed this term, and has also not fenced with accuracy that you'd want. The National fences may bring out the best in him again, in which a case he could go well at long odds
7 The Last Fling 10 11-5 Mrs. S J Smith
Finally seems to be getting his act together over fences and you'd be encouraged that his victories this term include wins at Haydock, (the only course bar Aintree with drop fences). He would also appear to have a good chance at the weights, since he would have to carry 11lbs more in future handicaps. Logic says he'll go well, but I am concerned that the ground may be too quick for him, and that he may be best when he's able to dominate, his run in the Gold Cup, lends weight to this theory. No matter how well he’s in, these factors must detract from his chances. If everything went his way I'm sure he'll run well, but the likelihood of that is questionable.8 Stormy Passage 10 11-3 P J Hobbs
After a good run in the Murphy's Gold Cup, Stormy Passage could only put in two average efforts under large weights at Cheltenham. More is needed ,but he is capable of such improvement, and is probably best fresh anyway. I also wouldnt be put of that most of his wins are around 2½ miles. as he is ridden for speed, so is normally hunted run early on in his races. I’ll sure he’ll figure if he stays, I’m not certain he’s good enough to win at this weights (N.B. Does have a history of breaking blood vessels)9 Red Marauder 10 11-2 N B Mason
Difficult to train but able individual. Unbeaten over obstacles (when completing) until a respectable 6th behind Gloria Victis, in the Racing Post Chase. He is a sound Jumper who you’d think will get round, however the ground may be going against him and is not a certain starter. Would run creditably if he does appear. 10 Addington Boy 12 11-2 F Murphy
Resurrected from retirement, Addington Boy ran a promising 3rd at Kelso. Has his ground and ran well last year, but probably has too much weight to be considered seriously
11 Buck Rogers 11 11-0 Victor Bowens
Not a forlorn hope, and one of the better irish entries, who has mixed it with the best of their handicappers all season. May have a few pounds too many but is sure to run well
12 Niki Dee 10 10-13 P Beaumont
Another entrant who has two ways of running , who at his best would surely run well, but his inconsistency is off-putting. If you like him you have picked a horse with the potential to run a good race,... but equally is as likely to run a stinker
13 Papillon 9 10-12 T M Walsh
Has slightly lost his way after his good runs in the Irish Grand National a few seasons ago, and seems to be asked to run over all ranges of distances and obstacles. If you concentrated on his effort over staying trip you can give him a chance, but again do you know what horse you'll be getting over the day.
14 Senor El Betrutti 11 10-12 Mrs. Susan Nock
A good example of a decent horse asked to race in this, a few seasons too late, when they are on the decline.... sometimes it works the oracle, but more often than not it doesn't
15 Star Traveller 9 10-11 H D Daly
The current market leader on the strength of recent efforts at Cheltenham, I am not convinced about his credentials. There will be plenty of commentators who will pick holes in the ability of some of this field to get round, well I think the same should be said about him. I have a suspicion that in less competitive affairs, his jumping isn't out under any pressure, but if you go through this season's form, steps up in grade/more completive affairs, have resulted in a less convincing round of jumping. he represents poor value in my view.
16 Village King 7 10-11 P J Hobbs
Although he has never fallen in his career, his jumping appears to have deteriorated, and you don't really know what sort of round he is likely to put in today, which is a pity because if he managed to has a very good chance of at least finishing in the places
17 Call It A Day 10 10-11 A King
What a difference a year makes !!! last season's favourite has been completely out of sorts this term but would go close if he comes back, currently is a massive price for the brave.
18 Micko's Dream 8 10-10 W P Mullins
Has been performing well in Ireland, and does seem to be on the upgrade. He is a relentless galloper who if he gets into a rhythm could set this field a merry dance. Certainly one to consider.
19 Esprit De Cotte (FR) 8 10-8 N J Henderson
I think this horses has a better chance of winning than his form figures suggest. and he does seem to have lost his way since falling in the Becher Chase when he traveling ominously well. I think that is the form evidence that he is best judged on and should he 'come back' he would surely run a good race. If he wasn't with Nicky Henderson he'd be bigger than 50/1, and would be a long shot with a chance
20 Sparky Gayle 10 10-8 C Parker
An interesting challenger who seems to be on the way back, and does have ground conditions in his favour. He is normally a really good, jumper so if he manages to take to this, is likely to run well
21 Feels Like Gold 12 10-7 N G Richards
Has good form around the course, and could go well, but has two negatives which are off putting; (i.) I got the impression that he didn't get home last year, and this is more competitive, and (ii.) His stable is badly out of form.
22 Kendal Cavalier 10 10-6 G B Balding
Like Feels like Gold, he ran well in last year's race, and could go well, but has two negatives which are off putting; (i) The ground looks to be plenty quick enough for him, and (ii) His stable is badly out of form.
23 Lucky Town 9 10-5 Enda Bolger
Honest Irish handicapper who should, with his hunting background have no trouble jumping round. Does look to have a lot to do at the weights
24 Earthmover 9 10-5 P F Nicholls
If you ignore his last run at Uttoxeter behind Young Kenny, he has very strong claims, as the conditions should suit, only has one doubt in my mind. He does miss the odd fence during the race. If he takes to this I'm certain he'll go close
25 Hollybank Buck 10 10-4 A J Martin
On last season's form he'd had strong claims in this, however he doesn't seem to be the same horse, and has a lot to do on this season's form. I wouldnt entirely rule him off, but he isn't as high on my list as he would have been last year
26 Royal Predica (FR) 6 10-4 M C Pipe
Honest handicapper who is well treated in this, but has two negatives which are off putting; (i) The ground looks to be plenty quick enough for him, and (ii) The trip may find him out, most of his wins are around 2½ miles.
27 Kingdom of Shades (USA) 10 10-4 Miss Venetia Williams
A dour stayer who is normally a safe conveyance, however I'm not convinced he'll have the speed to lay up with these on this ground, therefore his ace attribute looks to be nullified
28 Trinitro 9 10-3 Rune Haugen
This season's Norwegian Grand National winner is a complete unknown quantity, but does appear up against it..... he has though at least been fairly handicapped
29 Torduff Express 9 10-3 P F Nicholls
One the more interesting entries as he has been laid out for this by connection. He has run two respectable races, and will be suited by the trip. no forlorn hope, but others would appear to have better chances
30 The Gopher 11 10-3 D J Wintle
Does appear to be out of his depth, and is a bit of thinker. If he struggles early on he does look like 'Refusal Material', but if he takes to this will get around in his own time
31 Mely Moss (FR) 9 10-1 C R Egerton
Difficult to train individual, who comes into this with better credentials than many of these, as he has proven that he operates around these fences, and is likely to be suited by the trip. He has decent form in hunter chases, and its his lack of a previous run that is off putting. I think he can go close, and is certainly eachway material
32 Dark Stranger (FR) 9 10-1 M C Pipe
The subject of significant support this week, after his impressive win at Cheltenham does look to have a decent chance on that effort, however can he get home ? You don't know for certain he'll get the trip, most of his wins are around 2½ miles, and at the back of my mind is the fear that he'll be vulnerable to some of these who are blessed with proven stamina. As he's 12lbs better off than in future handicaps, then he might get away with it
33 Choisty 10 10-0 H E Haynes
Another dour stayer who you'd think will go well if he takes to the fences however he has had two attempts and failed.... third time lucky maybe ?
34 Flaked Oats 11 9-11 P F Nicholls
Although he does appear to have something to find on known form, he does stay this trip, and will be staying on when others cried enough. If he takes to the fences you could se him running a respectable race
35 Art Prince 10 9-10 M C Pipe
Has performed well this term, in his grade. This is a step up in class, and he has previously failed when asked. If the fences bring about some improvement he could go well, but it is a big ask
36 Merry People 12 9-9 J Queally
Traveled well when falling last year, remounting to finish a respectable 16th. could complete again but does seem to have a lot to do to win this
37 Druid's Brook 11 9-9 K C Bailey
This giant of a horse would be interesting with his featherweight if he took to these fences, but is a temperamental horse who could 'bottle it' if he doesn't like them.
38 Brave Highlander 12 9-9 J T Gifford
Has run well twice in this race and probably will again today, but doesn't look good enough
39 Camelot Knight 14 9-8 N A Twiston-Davies
Finished 3rd in this in 1997, and like Brave Highlander looks a good bet to get round, but a respectable placing is as much as can be hoped for
40 Celtic Giant 10 9-7 L Lungo
Suffered from an irregular heartbeat, and is raced sparingly. Could run really well, if he's back to his Kim Muir form of last year, but has been disappointing this term
POSSIBLES
One of the most open Nationals I can remember, The ground may be the most significant factor in your deliberations, Young Kenny and Red Marauder may well not be helped by it, also unproven stamina may be found wanting, logically if horses travel faster over this trip, as some stage, around the 3mile mark, those with stamina doubt could well see the petrol gauge emptying very quickly as their mounts 'hit their respective walls'. which horses appeals to me ?
Bobbyjo
Red Marauder (If he acts on the ground)
Esprit de Cotte
Listen Timmy
Flaked Oats
Escartesfigue
Buck Rogers
Mely Moss
Micko's Dream
Village King
Sparky Gayle
Earthmover, and
Dark Stranger
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTIONIn a hard race, I'm going to go with Earthmover, who has a lot going for him today, as long as he gets into his rhythm. If he does he looks capable of exploiting a useful weight
EACH WAY ALTERNATIVE
Earthmover just gets the nod over Mely Moss, who I can see going close
WHAT ABOUT SOME LONG SHOTS ?
Listen Timmy, Village King, Escartesfigue, Espirit de Cotte, and Flaked Oats all could give you a good run for your money.
4.35 Martell Reserve Novices' Hunters' Chase 5 year olds and upwards, to be run over 3miles and a furlong, 10 runners.
1 0P4//-10 It's Himself 8 12 7 A Martin
2 32-0UU2 Chatergold (IRE) 8 12 0 J White
3 2F4/-522 Danegeld (IRE) 9 12 0 David F Smith
4 331221 Father Andy (IRE) 7 12 0 M Hourigan
5 11 Finnow Thyne (IRE) 10 12 0 Nick Gifford
6 F0000/-4 Lakefield Rambler (IRE) 8 12 0 R Barber
7 12 Real Value (IRE) 9 12 0 Mrs. D Grissell
8 21 Satchmo (IRE) 8 12 0 Mrs. D Grissell
9 12 Very Very Noble (IRE) 6 12 0 J Lambe
10 1 Mister Softie (IRE) 5 11 5 A Martin
Early Morning Tissue; What you'll find in your newspapers: 9-4 Real Value, 7-2 It's Himself, 6 Finnow Thyne, 7 Lakefield Rambler, and Satchmo, 12 Father Andy, 14 others.
POSSIBLES
Arguably one of the best hunter chases of the season so far, . Real Value, Its Himself, and Lakefield Rambler try to uphold the Cheltenham Form against useful tools in Satchmo, Very Very Noble Father Andy, and Mister Softie.
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTION
So impressive was Satchmo last time at Sandown Park that I'd take him to lower his more experienced counterparts here. Though I expect Lakefield Rambler, and Mister Softie to make a race of it here
EACH WAY ALTERNATIVE
Lakefield Rambler
WHAT ABOUT A LONG SHOT ?
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5.15 Martell Champion Standard National Hunt Flat (Class A) (Grade 2), for 4, 5 and 6year olds only to be run over , 2milesm, and 110yds, 19 runners.
1 1521 Il Cavaliere 5 11 12 Mrs. M Reveley
2 1 Carmelite (IRE) 5 11 8 Mrs. J Harrington
3 12 Inca (IRE) 5 11 8 N Henderson
4 1 Quadco (IRE) 6 11 8 P Fahy
5 421 Rift Valley (IRE) 5 11 8 G McCourt
6 241 Right To Reply (IRE) 6 11 8 Noel T Chance
7 631 Tommy Trooper 5 11 8 K Comerford
8 11 Rose of Tracarta (IRE) 5 11 7 J Mullins
9 130-16 Soeur de Sentier 6 11 7 S Gollings
10 511 Solway Dawn 5 11 7 J O'Neill
11 402 Dark Shadows 5 11 4 W Storey
12 46 Equiname's Reward 5 11 4 D Eddy
13 1 Cruise The Fairway (IRE) 4 11 2 M Pitman
14 1 Europa 4 11 2 T Tate
15 1 Genuine Article (IRE) 4 11 2 M Pitman
16 1 Patriarch (IRE) 4 11 2 M Pitman
17 0-530 Fleur de Marechal 5 10 13 J Mullins
18 3 Rockanroll 4 10 12 Miss Jacqueline S Doyle
19 23 Run For Paddy 4 10 12 M Pitman
Early Morning Tissue; What you'll find in your newspapers: 7-4 Inca, 7-2 Patriarch, 8 Cruise The Fairway, 12 Il Cavaliere, and Europa, 14 Tommy Trooper, 16 others.
POSSIBLES
A competitive bumper to end the card, which seems to be between Inca, a good at Cheltenham, Mark Pitman's good string of Patriach, Genuine Article, and Cruise the Fairways, Right to Reply, Europa, Quadco, and Carmelite from Ireland
THE 4LONG POLE’S SELECTION
Inca's credentials look obvious, and i'm sure he'll go well, but he may be up against it giving 6lbs to Patriach, who did create a good impression of his debut, a run which he looks liked he'd improve on
EACH WAY ALTERNATIVE
Quadco
WHAT ABOUT A LONG SHOT ?
Soeur de Sentier
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