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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2000 -    
  Below are my selections for today's race meetings over jumps. For each race, I have given you who, in my view, is the likeliest winner, as well as horses who could run well at eachway odds. Key;   (R*ecommended) __ These horses have in our view the best chances of success each day;  FTG HORSE TO FOLLOW - signifies a horse in our list of horses to follow

POSTING TIMES FOR SELECTIONS__ Selections for Monday - Friday should be available after 9:30pm the previous evening, however on Saturday and Sunday due to other commitments won't be posted until after 8:30am those respective mornings unless otherwise stated. Hopefully this helps


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD

by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole   

 

Set high on the Sussex Downs with dramatic views to the Solent, Goodwood is arguably the most beautiful racecourse in the world.
The course is a sharp essentially a right-handed track with a long run in. There is also a straight six-furlong course. Horses drawn high tend to have an advantage on the round course. The course rises and falls around the natural downland amphitheatre, the horses dashing along the ridge creates one of the greatest spectacles racing has to offer.

There are few moments in sport to match the thrill of a top class field making the final dash to the Goodwood finish - whether you viewing from the members' lawn alongside the rails or from the family enclosure. Every summer the faithful and the fashionable return to the Downs for five days of quality racing. 

Day Five of Glorious Goodwood by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole  
'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' 
Saturday 5th August 
2:15 Vodafone Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Class C £15000 added, 2yo only, 7f, penalty £11375.00, 13 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Probably the most competitive Nursery run this term. Dance On The Top, Achilles Spirit, Dennis El Menace, Logic Lane, Forever My Lord, Meriden Mist, Valdesco, Media Buyer, Night Fall, Shush, and Church Mice, should be given a chance. At the head of the market, the Group race entry Dance On The Top is likely to have a big following after his smooth success at Kempton last time out. It's hard to see him not getting involved in the shake up, and I'll make him the selection. Eachway punters may take a chance on the potentially well-weighted Night Fall 6lengths behind Hotelgenie Dotcomm at Sandown last time out
No*1 CHOICE ~ Dance To The Top [R*ecommended],
E/W Alt ~ Night Fall

2:45 Vodafone Thoroughbred Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £25000 added, 3yo only, 1m, penalty £17269.87, 5 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Trappy little heat in which you can make a case for Summoner, Adilabad, and Mana-Mou Bay. Summoner will be popular, particularly after his 2lengths defeat of Pythios last time out. I'd take a chance with Adilabad, who was last seen finishing 41/2 lengths behind Umisthim at Newmarket in April. Sure to have improved in the interim. He is possibly open to enough improvement to take this 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Adilabad
E/W Alt ~ 

3:20 Vodafone Nassau Stakes Class A (Group 1) £135000 added, 3yo plus fillies, 1m 1f 192yds, penalty £78300.00, 8 runners.
Claxon Trained by J L Dunlop 4 9-1 
Diamond White Trained by M J Ryan 5 9-1
Ela Athena Trained by M A Jarvis 4 9-1 
Crimplene Trained by C E Brittain 3 8-6 
High Walden Trained by H R A Cecil 3 8-6 
Lady Upstage Trained by B W Hills 3 8-6 
New Assembly Trained by Sir Michael Stoute 3 8-6 
Princess Ellen Trained by G A Butler 3 8-6 
The 4 Long Pole ~ An interesting race which centres around Crimplene. Will this triple Group 1 winning filly get the trip? She will be hard to beat if she does stay but, as a horse renowned for forcing the issue, there must be an element of doubt about that. No such doubts exist about Lady Upstage, Ela Athena, Claxon, and High Walden. The last named has yet to fulfill the promise which made her winter favourite for the 1000 Guineas, and yet that may be being harsh on a filly placed in Grade A company this year. If you believe Crimplene will stay you must do her. If you're not sure you could a lot worse than High Walden 
No*1 CHOICE ~ High Walden
E/W Alt ~ New Assembly, filly on the upgrade, no surprise if she nicked a place 

3:50 Vodafone Stewards' Cup Showcase Handicap Class B £85000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £55250.00, 30 runners.
Halmahera Trained by I A Balding 5 9-10 
Repertory Trained by M S Saunders 7 9-9 
Deep Space Trained by E A L Dunlop 5 9-9 
Trinculo Trained by N P Littmoden 3 9-8 
Ho Leng Trained by Miss L A Perratt 5 9-8 
Cubism Trained by J W Hills 4 9-7t 
Sartorial Trained by P J Makin 4 9-4 
Alfailak Trained by M R Channon 3 9-1 
Further Outlook Trained by D Nicholls 6 9-0 
Danielle´s Lad Trained by B Palling 4 9-0 
Rudik Trained by Sir Michael Stoute 3 8-13t 
Juwwi Trained by J M Bradley 6 8-12 
Tayseer (ex7) Trained by D Nicholls 6 8-11 
Cryhavoc (ex3) Trained by D Nicholls 6 8-9 
Alegria Trained by J M P Eustace 4 8-8b 
Al Muallim Trained by D Nicholls 6 8-7t 
Blue Mountain Trained by R F Johnson Houghton 3 8-6 
Royal Result Trained by D Nicholls 7 8-6 
Lone Piper Trained by C E Brittain 5 8-5tv 
Cadeaux Cher (ex5) Trained by B W Hills 6 8-3 
Bon Ami Trained by A Berry 4 8-2 
Brave Edge Trained by R Hannon 9 8-2 
Second Wind Trained by C A Dwyer 5 8-1t
Return Of Amin Trained by W R Muir 6 7-13b 
Coastal Bluff Trained by N P Littmoden 8 7-13 
Alastair Smellie Trained by D Nicholls 4 7-12 
Bold Effort Trained by K O Cunningham-Brown 8 7-12b 
Dancing Mystery Trained by E A Wheeler 6 7-12 
Get Stuck In Trained by Miss L A Perratt 4 7-10 
Champagne Rider Trained by K McAuliffe 4 7-10 

The Flatman previewed this earlier in the week

"Steward's Cup ~ A Preview by The Flatman 

(Prices quoted may not be available; selections made on the basis of those entered at the five-day stage)

As is our usual practice, I have considered this weekend's big betting race with the dual purpose of trying to identify some early value and provide an early assessment of who we believe can play a leading role. At first glance the race looks as competitive as ever with a maximum field of 30 declared for the contest. At the risk of getting egg on my face (always possible in the racing game) I suggest that with closer inspection (including value consideration) that the race can be reduced to just a few contenders as many of the runners are simply infrequent winners, out of form, over the wrong trip or generally past their best. I will also suggest that the draw will have little bearing on the outcome - the evidence from sprints earlier in the week suggest no discernible advantage - and I think pace in the race is almost assured wherever you are drawn.

Firstly the shortlist of those horses to catch my eye, with best prices and bookmaker shown where they are available. Sartorial (20-1 Hills), Blue Mountain (12-1 Corals), Deep Space (12-1 general), Ho Leng (16-1 general), Daniell's Lad (33-1 general), Further Outlook (16-1 Coral), Royal Result (9-1 Tote), Tayseer (7-1 Tote), Rudik (16-1 Ladbrokes). 

This list can be whittled down further by taking account of other criteria. 

For example, you can be confident that Daniell's Lad will need a soft surface to run to his known best form and this is looking most unlikely. He is included on the above list in case of that eventuality when we think he would have a big shout. 

On value grounds, the admirable and well-handicapped Tayseer must be overlooked especially as he will almost certainly find this sharp 6F on the short side. Despite running well last weekend on good to firm ground (the likely conditions on Saturday) I also suspect his best form is definitely with some give in the ground. In respect of Ho Leng, he is clearly in good heart and was a most unfortunate last time being effectively a winner without a penalty. 

However, you would have to believe that the distance of the race will surely be too short and account for this one's chance. Deep Space who ran well in the top sprints last year to earn his current high mark and also did well in this year's Wokingham has the potential to run a big race but you have to suspect he has a few too many pounds on his back and that a potential improver further down the weights could mean this one has plenty to do. 

The same argument could be applied to the three-year-old Rudik (Stoute) who is the real dark horse of the race. This lightly raced individual was not given a hard time last time when his chance had gone and with his stable knowing the time of day in what is required to win these races his chance must be respected. I have doubts about his experience though in this tough heat and I feel he has enough weight (especially for a three year old) for what he has achieved. He may prefer some cut in the ground - his only success coming on soft. 

Dandy Nicholls who trains the favourite Tayseer also runs Further Outlook and Royal Result. Nothing this man sends out in sprint handicaps can easily be dismissed even if they have no recent form to their name! (and this is not the case here). Further Outlook who ran well last weekend, has appeared to been in the grip of the handicapper for some time (after his excellent season last year) and is on a long losing run. You would have to suspect he is near to winning again but may need to drop a few more pounds yet.

Royal Result, who has been well backed for this earlier this week (the 9-1 available at the time of writing represents fair value I feel) clearly has the form in the book to win this and his most recent effort puts him close to the three year old Blue Mountain in a trial for this race over course and distance. He has a big shout. Blue Mountain is an improving three year old with a turn of foot who may have won the Goodwood contest more easily with a clearer run. He does not seem over burdened with weight and appears to have the scope for further significant improvement. He is consistent and genuine and cannot be dismissed lightly. 

Another to fall into this category is Sartorial who has probably been laid out for this. He put up an ultra-smart effort to win a competitive handicap at Newmarket in May under the steadier of 10-0, which is some of the best sprinting form around. As he remains well handicapped here (just 5 pounds higher) provided the ground is not too quick he has a first rate chance in my book. Makin, his trainer is well versed in handling top sprinters (Imperial Beauty for example) and placing them astutely". 


THE FLATMAN ~ Despite the appalling record of three year olds in this race (1 win in the last ten years) and the significance I place on past trends, these must to be related to the circumstances of the race under consideration and used as a guide only. I therefore feel Blue Mountain has the potential to improve significantly and go very close to winning this contest. His stable are confident and in good form. 

I generally believe the standard of the race is not that competitive and that the older brigade (bar one - see below) is not that strong or are in the handicapper's grip. In selecting Blue Mountain (12-1) as my first value choice, I must say I also respect the chances of Royal Result in particular, and the ability of his trainer to get even more improvement from this one when it does not seem possible. However, this one does need to be held up and may encounter traffic problems which may make the difference. 

I am scared of Rudik who I suspect will be the big gamble on the day but I will stick with my reasons for opposing that one. But for me there can only be one bet on genuine good ground and that is Sartorial who represents an outstanding value bet at 20-1 in my opinion against this modest bunch. His form as it stands is well up to winning this and the handicapper has been kind. He is a consistent and genuine performer. Get on now. 

1. Sartorial [R*ecommended],
2 Blue Mountain 
3. Royal Result 

The 4 LONG POLE ~ I have to agree with the summarisation of this by The Flatman, however I would reverse the first two placings. Of those two Blue Mountain looks the better of the two. I'm afraid I'm going to have go with Rudik, big punt or not. This is a very decent animal that has yet to live up to his 'hype', who posted an eye-catching run at Newmarket last time out. The classic symptoms of a horse ready for a mission if ever I saw one. Don't be surprised if Bon Ami and Juwwi run well at large odds, the former is particularly well handicapped and could be great eachway value
No*1 CHOICE ~ Rudik [R*ecommended],
E/W Alt ~ Blue Mountain
LONG*SHOT ~ Bon Ami

4:25 Turf Club Rated Stakes Class C (Handicap) £15000 added, 3yo only, 1m 6f, penalty £9512.00, 8 runners
The 4 Long Pole ~ Fanfare, High Topper, Fait Le Jojo, and Bid For Fame look the likeliest winners on the fifth on the card. Fanfare 4th to Cephalonia in a listed event last time takes a drop in class here, and looks the one to be on. Bid for fame is open to further improvement and can nick a place
No*1 CHOICE ~ Fanfare 
E/W Alt ~ Bid for Fame

5:00 European Breeders Fund Richard Baerlein Maiden Stakes Class D £10000 added, 2yo only colts and geldings, 7f, penalty £7020.00, 11 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Steinitz made a highly satisfactory start to his career when being touched of by No Excuses Needed at Sandown. The fact that this horse won a Group 3 here midweek, suggests that John Dunlop's colt will be very hard to beat. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Steinitz [R*ecommended],
E/W Alt ~ Archduke Ferdinand

5:35 European Breeders Fund Racegoers Club Classified Stakes Class B £15000 added, 3yo plus, 7f, penalty £8810.20, 9 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ The final race on the card is a trappy affair in which Swan Knight, Smart Ridge, Veil Of Avalon, Halland Park Girl, Muchea, Kashra, Adjutant, Kumait, and Easy Dollar have chances of sorts. In truth none of them really reach out and say 'I'm the one' and therefore a tentative suggestion is Swan Knight. Very few of these are what you call 'in great form'; at least he posted a respective time, and effort when 2nd to Duraid at York last time. He may be open to enough improvement to take a race of this nature
No*1 CHOICE ~ Swan Knight
E/W Alt ~ Adjuntant

 Day Four of Glorious Goodwood by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole  
'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' 
Friday 4th August 
2:15 Bonusprint Stakes (Handicap) Class C £45000 added, 3yo only, 7f, penalty £29250.00, 19 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Capricho, Camberley, Shadow Prince, Rendition, Atlantic Rhapsody, Kind Regards, Lagoon, Hilltop Warning, Blue Velvet, and Cd Flyer, head the market for the opener. Despite there being a large field I cant see the winner not coming from the first three in the betting Camberley, Capricho and Shadow Prince. The last named will have his supporters after finishing a good third to Rushmore at Sandown last time out, however Camberley and Capricho looks to have more solid credentials. Camberley a course and distance winner last time out should go close but I will stick with the progressive Capricho, unraced at two but going the right way if his easy success at Newmarket is anything to go by 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Capricho
E/W Alt ~ Camberley

The Flat Man ~ Shadow Prince who was a trifle unlucky last time may run well, as should Capricho who impressed me so much last time (seems to have plenty of scope to go on from that) however Camberley has been doing exactly that all season and finally got his head in front last time. He is a Group horse in a handicap specially laid out for this and must be respected. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Camberley
E/W Alt ~ 

2:45 Volvo Truck Globetrotter Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B £50000 added, 3yo only, 1m 1f 192yds, penalty £32500.00, 13 runners
The 4 Long Pole ~ This handicap is always fiercely contested and with the likes of Rich Vein, Water Jump, Foreign Secretary, Happy Diamond, Father Juninho, Highland Reel, Kookaburra, Pedro Pete, and Starlyte Girl in the field this year should be no exception. Rich Vein, Starlyte Girl and Happy Diamond have been in great heart recently and are likely to attract significant market support. I would pass them over in the hope that both Foreign Secretary and Water Jump appreciate the drop back to 1 1/4 miles. Both appeared to find an extra 2 furlongs beyond them last time and that makes them interesting in this type of race. Water Jump gets the call
No*1 CHOICE ~ Water Jump [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Happy Diamond
LONG*SHOT ~ Michele Marieschi a very interesting entry if he recaptured his best 2 year old form

The Flat Man ~ Water Jump, Kookaburra, Rich Vein and Starlyte Girl are the one's to concentrate on. While I am loathe to desert Water Jump after his Ascot run and I'm very wary of Rich Vein who is in the form of his life, I suspect that Richard Hannon has the answer to this contest with the very smart Starlyte Girl. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Starlyte Girl
E/W Alt ~ 

3:20 Theo Fennell Lennox Stakes Class A (Group 3) £50000 added, 3yo plus, 7f, penalty £30000.00, 9 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ It is impossible to look outside of Observatory and Swallow Flight on their recent efforts. The weights though appear to favour Swallow Flight, and as much as I like John Gosden's individual that negative have counted against him
No*1 CHOICE ~ Swallow Flight [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Tumbleweed Glen

The Flat Man ~ Observatory and Swallow Flight appear to have this between them. Hard to choose between the pair but perhaps Observatory has the most scope for improvement and gets the nod.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Observatory
E/W Alt ~ 

3:50 Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother's 100th Birthday Molecomb Stakes Class A (Group 3) £40000 added, 2yo only, 5f, penalty £24000.00, 10 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Bouncing Bowdler, Misty Eyed, Charlie Parkes, Elsie Plunkett, Red Millennium, Taras Emperor, and Shoeshine Boy, all have chances in an open sprint. Red Millenium is a very speedy individual and is favoured by the weights. He is likely to be hard to beat, howevr he has failed against similar opposition and could be just found wanting again. He is the 2nd choice to Elsie Plunkett, for whom every drop of rain is an added plus. She ran respectably after a long layoff last time out and Newbury and must have eachway claims at the very least
No*1 CHOICE ~ Elsie Plunkett E/W
Alt ~ Red Millenium 

The Flat Man ~ Red Millenium has so much speed it is hard to think he will not put this to good use on this track. He'll win (Recommended) Misty Eyed and Piccled could represent some danger but I'm loathe to desert the Berry horse this time.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Red Millenium [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ 

4:25 Glorious Tioman Island Rated Stakes Class A (Handicap) (Listed Race) £50000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, penalty £29000.00, 7 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Strangely small field for such a big prize, but maybe a good opportunity for Ligne Gagnante to score for the first time this term. The key to him is the pace of the race. It is critical for him to have a race run at a true pace, and with Murghem in the field this is one of the few occasions recently hes had this requirement. If all goes to plan, he can make the most of the 14lbs weight concession 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Ligne Gagnante
E/W Alt ~ 

The Flat Man ~ Ligne Gagnante though running well usually finds one too good. Vicious Circle is smart and could be the one but I just prefer the in form and race fit Murghem.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Murghem
E/W Alt ~ 

The last couple of races on the card give punters a good opportunity to see what if any effect the recent rain is having on the draw, for Saturday's big betting heat, The Stewards Cup

5:00 Express Week of Racing Stakes (Handicap) Class C £12000 added, 3yo only, 5f, penalty £9262.50, 17 runners.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Plenty can be fancied, with Fly Like The Wind, Melanzana, Poppy's Song, Ansellad, Licence To Thrill, Travesty Of Law, Illusive, and Baby Barry capturing my attention the most. Preference is for Travesty of Law who showed that he was on the way back last time out at Sandown as will be suited to the track
No*1 CHOICE ~ Travesty of Law
E/W Alt ~ Illusive

The Flat Man ~ Licence to Thrill, Poppy's Song, Melanzana, Ansellad and Fly Like the Wind are the leading contenders. The tentative selection is Fly Like the Wind who finally got his head in front last time after some creditable efforts and he looks on a reasonable mark.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Fly Like the Wind
E/W Alt ~ 

5:35 Stewards' Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Class B 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Zuhair is worth opposing if the rain as it seemed yesterday gets into the ground, however the stable can still take it with Flak Jacket who is in top form at the moment that his form was franked by Pure Elegancia's good run on Wednesday
No*1 CHOICE ~ Flak Jacket
E/W Alt ~ Miss Hit, relatively unexposed horse with conditions turning her way

The Flat Man ~ Perhaps only trainer Dandy Nicholls knows who will win this contest with his multiple entry on show here. I believe Flak Jacket is in such great heart at the moment that he will take all the beating. I have respect for Compton Banker (who comes from behind and often finds trouble) and one who could surprise Smart Predator. But realistically it is Zuhair who could chase home the selection after his return to form (in some style) on Wednesday
No*1 CHOICE ~ Flak Jacket
E/W Alt ~ Smart Predator 

Day Three of Glorious Goodwood by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole  
'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' 
Thursday 3rd August 
2:15 Oak Tree Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £35000 added, 3yo plus fillies, 7f, penalty £22750.00, 11 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Strange mix of disappointing types, and horses moving up in grade. Danceabout, Out Of Reach, Moselle, Hypnotize, My Hansel, Verbose, and Coco are singled out from the entry. Danceabout arguably has the best form of these. Her 2legth defeat by Alshakr in the Child Stakes at Newmarket reads well, and she sets a fair stand for her rivals. She should oblige but is not a confident choice with improvers Out of Reach (easy winner at Newmarket latest start), and Verbose in opposition. Incredulous and Coco have run well carrying large weights in Handicap Company and can also make their presence felt 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Danceabout
E/W Alt ~ Coco

The Flat Man ~ I confidently feel Danceabout (Recommended) who I selected at both Ascot and the Newmarket July meeting can reward my faith in her here. She ran with credit in both those races and this contest is weaker. Her chance last time was not helped by the rain-softened ground and by her rivals who finished ahead of her racing on a faster strip nearer the rail. She will be suited by the fast pace here (I think guaranteed) the better ground, the drop back to 7F and is well drawn. She can lead home Out of Reach who is the each way alternative.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Danceabout [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Out of Reach

2:45 Richmond Stakes Class A (Group 2) £50000 added, 2yo only colts and geldings, 6f, penalty £29000.00, 8 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ The overall field for race two is weak and only Pyrus, Pan Jammer, Endless Summer, and Dominus, make any appeal. Pan Jammer comes into this in great heart after beating the well-regarded Pirate of Penzance at the Curragh last time out. He should go well again, but ion Pyrus and Endless Summer; he has come across two juveniles open to improve on easy wins on their debuts. Pyrus gets a marginal decision but it wouldnt surprise me if there is little to choice between them at the death 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Pyrus
E/W Alt ~ Dominus

The Flat Man ~ Dominus did us a favour last time and will enjoy this fast track. The form of his win has been franked by Red Magic since. Pyrus will have very different conditions to his debut win (in terms of ground and distance) and is readily opposed with Endless Summer who left a lasting impression first time (albeit in a minor event) but is almost certainly capable of significant improvement. Do not oppose this one lightly
No*1 CHOICE ~ Dominus
Alt ~ Endless Summer 

3:20 J. P. Morgan 'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' Cup Class A (Group 2) £80000 added, 3yo plus, 2m, penalty £46400.00, 8 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ This looks like being an open renewal of the Goodwood Cup, I wouldnt leave any of these out of my calculations. Ascot Gold Cup form suggests that Far Cry is the one they all have to beat. However, I know I keep on the subject but again I cannot understand why any the trainers of these runners haven't ensure that this is a true test of stamina by putting a pacemaker in the field. This may not suit Far Cry. I will stick with him as class ultimately more often than not will out, but Barry Hill's pair Rainbow High, and Rainbow Way could well have significant 'bit parts' in this epic
No*1 CHOICE ~ Far Cry
E/W Alt ~ Rainbow High, a 4 length 5th to Bangalore in the Chester Cup giving that opponent 26lbs reads well 

The Flat Man ~ On Ascot Gold Cup form there should be little between Far Cry and San Sebastian. I'll stick with Far Cry to keep his head in front of that one again and another who could go well Persian Punch.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Far Cry
E/W Alt ~ 

3:50 William Hill Mile Showcase Handicap Class B £100000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £65000.00, 22 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Caribbean Monarch, El Gran Papa, John Ferneley, Persiano, Calcutta, Pythios, Red N' Socks, Peartree House, Triple Dash, Omaha City, River Times, Sharp Play, Parisien Star, Pulau Tioman, and Volontiers are likely to head a ridiculously open mile handicap. This race loses some of its mystique, as a significantly large proportion of these have been in action during the last 4 days, evidently attracted to the large purse on offer. Caribbean Monarch and El Gran Papa will likely vie for favouritism, after good recent performances, however they do like exaggerated waiting tactics and maybe aren't appealing options at current odds, they will certainly need a hell of a lot of luck in running to succeed. I like horses prepared specifically for big races, like John Fernley, and Red N Socks, and Pulau Tioman. I think one of them will win, and I'll go with John Fernley, and excellent 2nd to Caribbean Monarch in the Hunt Cup, and weighted to get a lot closer today 
No*1 CHOICE ~ John Fernley
E/W Alt ~ Red N Socks
LONG* SHOT ~ Pulau Tioman 

The Flat Man ~ Those who backed Caribbean Monarch at the weekend on my advice and saw him find more trouble than 'Vinny Jones' behind Tillerman will know just how unlucky we were not to collect on that occasion. The trouble is, while he remains well handicapped and did not have a hard race at the weekend is not inconceivable that a repeat performance is on the cards. As I do not wish to take that chance this time around on this tighter circuit I suggest we stick with an equally unlucky horse last time - Pythios. He had to be switched in the Hunt Cup behind Caribbean Monarch just inside the final furlong and would surely have won with a clear passage. In confirming he is back to his three year old best I think he has a first rate chance here. Others to consider are Sharp Play (our winner on Tuesday) but he is probably better over further, Calcutta who seems to be returning to his best form and Pulau Tioman who would be the selection if there were significant rain overnight. The final horse to consider is El Gran Papa who ran splendidly on Saturday but is passed over on the basis of a low draw and by the fact he may not have recovered from his exploits at the weekend.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Pythios 
E/W Alt ~ Caribbean Monarch

4:25 European Breeders Fund New Ham Maiden Fillies' Stakes Class D £15000 added, 2yo only fillies, 7f, penalty £10920.00, 10 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Trappy heat with only Aker Wood having any worthwhile form. A newcomer is likely to oblige. English Harbour, a half sister to the top class Environment Friend; Tara Gold a full sister to Gold Academy; Iffah, a daughter of a winning miler and Ameraat look the ones to concentrate on. Iffah gets a marginal vote 
NO*1 CHOICE ~ Iffah
E/W Alt ~ Ameraat

The Flat Man ~ If the ground comes up good to soft then Aker Wood would be the selection. However, as this is unlikely, I will select Iffah. The eachway selection is Sayedah. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Iffah
E/W Alt ~ Sayedah.

5:00 Loraine Kidd Memorial Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Class C £10000 added, 2yo only, 5f, penalty £7670.00, 8 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Hamatara, Eurolink Sundance, and Lai See make most appeal in a trappy Nursery, Lai See, unlucky to come up against the well treated Sibla last time out at Kempton gets the vote over the improver Hamatara
No*1 CHOICE ~ Lai See [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Jack Sprat

The Flat Man ~ Eurolink Sundance and Antonia's Dilemma should be looked at closely. Celotti is not without a chance on his latest effort and could surprise and he gets the nod.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Celotti
E/W Alt ~ 

5:35 Drawing Room Stakes (Handicap) Class D £12000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 1f, penalty £9789.00, 22 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ A punters nightmare a 22 runner handicap in which Bound For Pleasure, Roman King, Katiypour, Tarawan, Eastern Spice, Hibernate, Junikay, Lycian, The Green Grey, Inchinnan, China Red, Bay View, Box Car, Colonel North, Forza Figlio, Natalie Jay, and Thatchmaster, can arguably be given chances. With plenty of pace on this will require a lot of luck in running. Bound for Pleasure, The Green Grey, and Lycian are selected, as they will like the rigours of the race. A horse that runs well on his debut for new connections is worth noting next time. When that stable is a big yard (John Gosden) you take double notice. I suspect there will be a punt on him, but good luck to those of you who have a go......... I think you've made the right decision
No*1 CHOICE ~ Bound for Pleasure [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ The Green Grey
LONG*SHOT ~ Lycian

The Flat Man ~ Not a good race for this standard of meeting and most difficult to see many of these winning on the form they have displayed recently. Eastern Spice, Bound for Pleasure, Roman King, Inchinnan and Katiypour are the only one's that I can see coming into the picture. I think the three year olds have plenty of weight to stop them (I just favour Inchinnan to come out best of those) but the selection is Bound for Pleasure who returned with a good deal of promise first time up with a level of form good enough to take this. A reproduction should suffice. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Bound for Pleasure
E/W Alt ~ 

Day Two of Glorious Goodwood by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole  
'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' 
Wednesday 2nd August 
2:15 Marriott Hotels 'GLORIOUS GOODWOOD' Stakes (Handicap) Class C £25000 added, 3yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £17225.00, 8 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Silent Warning, Bustling Rio, Seliana, Virgin Soldier, Laffah, and Christainstad, line up for this stamina test. I have very little doubt that Silent Warning is the best of these however whether I'd be prepared to take the 9/4 on a horse that ran 5 days ago after a long absence is another matter. I would have though that Renaissance Lady, Laffah, and Christainstad should all get this after their jumping exploits during the winter, however I'll take a chance with Seliana; a complete outsider when finishing 1 1/2 Lengths 2nd of 24 to Barba Papa at Royal Ascot over this trip 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Seliana
E/W Alt ~ Laffah, not sure whether Richard Hughes is the right jockey for him, but he should be galloping at the death when some of these cry enough

The Flat Man ~ None of these horses have won over this extreme test. Bets to a minimum on that basis. Virgin Soldier is the tentative selection to win this from the likely favourite Silent Warning. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Virgin Soldier 
E/W Alt ~ 

2:45 Champagne Lanson Vintage Stakes Class A (Group 3) £50000 added, 2yo only, 7f, penalty £30000.00, 10 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Baaridd, Chianti, Bonnard, Atmospheric, Ecology, Shaard, Tortuguero, and No Excuse Needed, are the likeliest winners on this ultra competitive juvenile event. I am loath to overlook Baaridd having selected him in defeat behind Celtic Silence, howevr the facts remain that he did do far too much early on and did refuse to settle. This is arguably better quality on depth and it conceivable that he may not get away with it here. He is the logical choice, so I'll make him the alternative choice, howevr the fast pace likely to be set by Atmospheric may help my selection No Excuse Needed [E/W]. I liked the manner, in which No Excuse Needed went about his task at Sandown on his debut, and whilst I accept he has a lot to find on the book, he does look capable of doing so, and as I intimated the race should be run to suit 
No*1 CHOICE ~ No Excuse Needed E/W
Alt ~ Baaridd

The Flat Man ~ Bets to a minimum in this ultra-competitive heat too me thinks. Baaridd (the form choice) did little wrong at Ascot behind Celtic Silence (who may be exceptional) and gets the vote from the highly regarded Chianti who still has plenty to prove on the racecourse despite his two wins. Dangers abound and any number of the lightly raced brigade could show significant improvement and take this.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Baaridd
E/W Alt ~ 

3:20 Champagne Lanson Sussex Stakes Class A (Group 1) £275000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £159500.00, 10 runners. 

Aljabr Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor 4 9-7
Almushtarak Trained by K Mahdi 7 9-7 
Arkadian Hero Trained by L M Cumani 5 9-7 
Dansili Trained by A Fabre 4 9-7 
Josr Algarhoud Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor 4 9-7 
Golden Silca Trained by M R Channon 4 9-4 
Giant´s Causeway Trained by A P O´Brien 3 9-0 
Manhattan Trained by A P O´Brien 3 9-0 
Medicean Trained by Sir Michael Stoute 3 9-0 
Valentino Trained by J H M Gosden 3 9-0 

The 4 Long Pole ~ Dansili, Aljabr, Giant's Causeway, Valentino, Arkadian Hero, and Medicean, look set to serve up a treat in the first Group race of the meeting. The Flatman accurately below illustrates how tightly knitted the formlines are. There are only inches between Giants Causeway, and Valentino, on St Jams Palace Form, Aljabr; 4th of 11, 4l behind Kalanisi at Ascot and Dansili 3 1/2l in front of him in that race. This comes down to tactics. I can't believe Giants Causeway won't go along with the free running Aljabr. He has pole position, and will certainly kick first. That should be enough; If Dansili gives him too much rope he will find it very hard to get past this lion. Giants Causeway is the logical selection to add to his Eclipse success
No*1 CHOICE ~ Giants Causeway
E/W Alt ~ Arkadian Hero

The Flat Man ~ Aljabr won this last year but has not shown enough for me to land the double. Would appear to be little between Giants Causeway and Dansili through Kalanisi and I expect these two to fight out the finish in what should be a cracker. Giants Causeway gets the nod. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Giants Causeway
E/W Alt ~ 

3:50 Tote Gold Trophy Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B £70000 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f, penalty £45500.00, 10 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Romantic Affair, Alva Glen, Zafonic's Song, Unaware, Cracow, Blue Gold, Il Capitano, Royal Eagle, and Torrid Kentavr, hopefully will serve up a smashing desert after a splendid main course! Judging by The Flatman's comments Romantic Affair's opponents have a sizeable task trying to defeat that horse. He is hard to evaluate though. A 2 1/2length defeat of After The Blue isn't the greatest performance in the world (That horse has been beaten twice since), and I'd go with the improving Zafonic's Song, who has finished behind Bien Entendu, and Sakhee (USA) before dotting up in a weak Yarmouth maiden. This is his level and he m ay be well treated 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Zafonic's Song
E/W Alt ~ Cracow

The Flat Man ~ I mentioned Romantic Affair (Recommended) in my Ascot summary on Saturday (he was engaged in the last but was taken out) and said that pleasing noises from Arundel had reached me. This one really seems to be going the right way and is considered to be better than a handicapper. He may be thrown in here. On that basis you would expect him to beat all of those who have to concede weight here, while those below look distinctly beatable although Unaware may prove dangerous. Romantic Affair may end up a very short price indeed with Quinn aboard and anybody looking for an each way alternative could do worse than Zafonic's Song who was highly tried in the first part of the season (did not run too badly) and is at a more appropriate level here.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Romantic Affair [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ 

4:25 Weatherbys Bank Fillies' Stakes (Handicap) Class C £15000 added, 3yo plus fillies, 1m 1f, penalty £11180.00, 10 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Tango Two Thousand, Aegean Dream, Fair Impression, Fredora, Muschana, and Roshani, all look interesting in the 5th race. Tango Two Thousand's defeat of Berzoud by 4l at Windsor last isn't the greatest form however this filly has scope for significant improvement, the fact that John Gosden likes winning this with similar types is a bonus. At intimated below the progressive Fair Impression, and the multi winning Perfect Moment look her chief rivals. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Tango Two Thousand
E/W Alt ~ Muschana

The Flat Man ~ It may be that Tango Two Thousand and Fair Impression are ahead of the handicapper and can improve from now on. But I hope the in form Perfect Moment is up to taking this and capitalise on the weight concession.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Perfect Moment
E/W Alt ~ 

5:00 Lanson Lady of The Month Award Maiden Fillies' Stakes Class D £10000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £7052.50, 9 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ I do not have any doubt that Zietunzeen is the form horse, his 5th of 22, 5l behind Superstar Leo in the Grade B Super sprint makes god reading. This is his fifth effort though and he hasn't still posted a win. If he's eachway odds I'd suggest doing him without hesitation, howevr he may have come against another 'tartar' in Nasmatt; a half-sister by Danehill to the classy Bint Allayl. Her trainer gets them ready first time out, and I'll take her to score here
No*1 CHOICE ~ Nashaat
E/W Alt ~ Zietunzeen

The Flat Man ~ those which have run do not look out of the ordinary. Nasmatt from the highly successful trainer of two year olds (Channon) must have a leading chance. But as this is such a difficult track for two year olds without experience I will plump for Nearctic Lady to make experience pay.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Neartic Lady
E/W Alt ~ 

5:35 Charlton Stakes (Handicap) Class D £12000 added, 4yo plus, 5f, penalty £9555.00, 20 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Zuhair, Antonia's Double, Pure Elegancia, Sihafi, Eastern Trumpeter, Referendum, Tuscan Dream, Sailing Shoes, Kilcullen Lad, Forgotten Times, Gay Breeze, Northern Svengali, and Knockemback Nellie can all be given chances in this 20 runner sprint. Last year's winner Zuhair is likely to be all the rage here and since he's returned to form he's likely to be all the rage. I think though that stablemate Pure Elegancia is the one to be on. A 2 1/2l defeat by stablemate Flak Jacket at Catterick over 5f doesn't tell the whole story as she was badly drawn that day and probably did well to get so close. The draw may have been kinder today and she is my choice to go in here. Of the other Forgotten Times, and Eastern Trumpeter are both in great heart, and would be respectable eachway alternative
No*1 CHOICE ~ Pure Elegancia
E/W Alt ~ Eastern Trumpeter
LONG*SHOT ~ Forgotten Times

The Flat Man ~ Nightmare time!! The speedy Pure Elegancia from Nicholls in form yard won over the course and distance last year and is coming to hand. I expect him to give you a good run for you're money as any in the field. "Zuhair" takes the easier option here than the Stewards Cup and might make his stablemate pull out all the stops. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Zuhair
E/W Alt ~ Pure Elegancia

 


Day One of Glorious Goodwood by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole  
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
Tuesday 1st August 
2:15 Moneyguru Stakes (Handicap) Class B £50000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 6f, penalty £32500.00, 17 runners. 

The 4 Long Pole ~ Give Notice, Eminence Grise, Wait for the Will, Court Shareef, Temple Way, Mowbray, St Helensfield, Prairie Falcon, Quedex, and Ravenswood, look the likeliest winners of the opening event on the card. The likely favourite Give Notice was a cheeky winner at Kempton last time. Whilst it may simply be my imagination, I did get he impression that there might not have been much 'left in the locker', if shed been asked and as a result she may well be worth overlooking today. Of the others Eminence Grise won nicely at York and must go well and should recent winners St Helensfield, and Wait for the Will. I prefer Ravenswood who ran a great race to finished 4th behind Dalampour in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. The drop back in trip should suit, and he should safely hold Ribblesdown on that form. If there is to be a shock winner then 10 lengths winner Jardines Lookout looks the chief candidate for that honour 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Ravenswood [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Jardines Lookout

The Flat Man ~ St Helensfield and Wait for the Will both turn out again after their victories at the weekend under 3lb penalties. To add to the competitive nature of the race we have Ravenswood (ran so well in the Queen's Vase), in form Give Notice and Henry Cecil's Eminence Grise. All of these must be considered to have chances of sorts but I select Afterjacko on the basis that I think he will like the track and the way the race will be run. I believe he has plenty of improvement in him (at this trip) and that we have yet to see the best of him this year where he has run several times over too short trips.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Afterjacko
E/W Alt ~ 

2:45 King George Stakes Class A (Group 3) £50000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £30000.00, 14 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Cassandra Go, Rudi's Pet, Warrior Queen, May Contessa, Ellens Lad and Watching, look the likeliest winners of the second. Watching, a winner last time out at Sandown must go well if he can act on the track. Ellens Lad is also in good heart, and this dual winner in handicap company deserves a chance in this company. Cassandra Go continues to race in great heart howevr, seemingly keep on finding one to beat her in this grade, Hot Tin Roof was the latest to do so at York last time out. I would howevr forgive Rudi's Pet his poor effort in the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, and judge him on his previous efforts. These would just about make him the best of these 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Rudi's Pet [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Ellens Lad

The Flat Man ~ We selected Rudi's Pet at Ascot and he disappointed (mineral imbalance) so that run can be forgiven. With his stable in cracking form he can lead Watching and Imperial Beauty home.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Rudi's Pet
E/W Alt ~ 

3:20 Bet Direct Summer Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B £50000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 1f 192yds, penalty £32500.00, 11 runners
The 4 Long Pole ~ Chief Cashier, Sir Effendi, Hudood, Pantar, Ulundi and Culzean, head the market for race three. Sir Effendi, an excellent 2nd to Aegean Dream after a long layoff could be interesting. Pantar and Polish Spirit (A lively outsider) are closely matched on their recent meeting at Kempton. Chief Cashier, 2nd to Polar Red on the same card, also seems likely to be strongly fancied. The race though appears to be tailor-made for Culzean who possesses a devastating turn of foot when allowed to use it, as he did at Newmarket two runs ago. He lost nothing in defeat to Kadir last time out, and is the selection in this
No*1 CHOICE ~ Culzean E/W
Alt ~ Sir Effendi, could be very interesting if the money is down on him 

The Flat Man ~ Sharp Play from the in form Mark Johnston yard can land the spoils from Sir Effendi. This horse will be well suited by this step up in trip and would appear to have more improvement in him than most of these. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Sharp Play [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ 

3:50 Peugeot Gordon Stakes Class A (Group 3) £50000 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f, penalty £29000.00, 11 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Hataab, Give The Slip, Explode, Sobriety, St Expedit, Going Global, Air Marshal and Talaash look the most interesting in the fourth. A strong pace is guaranteed with Air Marshal, and Explode both liking to force the issue. This should suit several of these, including former Derby Hope Hataab who lost nothing in defeat behind Island House at Kempton last time out; Give the Slip, stepping up in class after his brave success in handicap company at Royal Ascot; the Magnet Cup winner Sobriety who is interesting if he stays this trip, and St Expedit. The last named, completely unsuited by the cat and mouse games played at Haydock last time, is better judged on his efforts in the Predominate Stakes here. He didn't run too badly in the Derby and if he gets the early pace required may be able to 'poach' the spoils close home 
No*1 CHOICE ~ St Expedit
E/W Alt ~ Talaash

The Flat Man ~ Would seem foolhardy to lose faith in Hataab in this contest after giving him very close consideration as a potential winner of the Epsom Derby itself. I think it has been a bonus that he has not been rushed back and has been given time to recover from his ailments. He has often looked as if this trip will suit him, which could further help him to display the further improvement he has in him. I fully expect him to come home at the chief expense of the penalised Millenary (who was not disgraced in the French Derby).
No*1 CHOICE ~ Hataab [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ 

4:25 Capel Cure Sharp Nursery Stakes (Handicap) Class C £16000 added, 2yo only, 6f, penalty £11388.00, 8 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Piccolo Player, Wally McArthur, Smith And Western, and Strumpet, make most appeal in the next. Piccolo Player was an expensive failure for favourite backers here last time out. His conqueror Logic Lane was himself beaten by Wally Macarthur last time out at Doncaster. Both should figure here. Strumpet gets the call though. I liked the way she won her maiden at Salisbury, who as a result of two indifference performances early on in her career may well be nicely treated here. Smith and Western a good 2nd to Forwood last time out may be the one to fear most. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Strumpet
E/W Alt ~ Sibla

The Flat Man ~ I was quite taken by Baccura's effort last time and he is a tentative selection to beat Wally McArthur and the Hannon pair. 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Baccura
E/W Alt ~ 

5:00 Brook Street Stakes (Handicap) Class D £15000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £11700.00, 12 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Muyassir, Volontiers, Krispin, Naviasky, Elmhurst Boy and Stoppes Brow, head the market for the penultimate race. Muyassir was strongly fancied on his latest start, but had to give best to Aegean Dream at Newbury. He is likely to attract supporter again today. As much as I respect his claims Volontiers, and Naviasky look better candidates. Volontiers was pipped by Adobe at Doncaster last time, and will go close despite top weight of 10-0. I will take a chance and suggest Naviasky who normally runs well here, and may be finally striking form if a 2 length second to Pay d'Amour at Epsom is to be believed 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Naviasky
E/W Alt ~ Volontiers

The Flat Man ~ Trappy. Naviasky often runs well on the track and indeed at this meeting. Difficult ride though. Loch Laird has been disappointing this year. Social Contract may be the best of the three year olds. However, let's leave this to Volontiers and Muyassir (the top weights) to fight out the finish. Preference just is for the latter.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Mussayir
E/W Alt ~ 

5:35 Evening Standard Maiden Stakes Class D £10000 added, 2yo only colts and geldings, 6f, penalty £7182.50, 7 runners. 
The 4 Long Pole ~ Zilch, Mootafayill, Goggles, and Lilleman, are the likely winners of the last. Zilch, a close 2nd to Oh So Dusty at Newbury on his debut sets the standard, he may well though have to give best to the well-bred Mootafayill who I hope will make a winning introduction 
No*1 CHOICE ~ Mootafayill
E/W Alt ~ 

The Flat Man ~ Zilch is the clear form choice from those that have run and although the market will tell the story in respect of the unraced individuals (Kai One is just one to note in my opinion from Hannon yard) I expect him to prevail.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Zilch
E/W Alt ~

 

 

 

 

 

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