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Analysis & Selections by
the
flat man
Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating
each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or
even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er WAHL), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(plaziert-wettend) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
ROYAL ASCOT
Saturday, June 22nd 2002
2:30 Henry Carnarvon Stakes Registered As The Albany Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>Very hard call. Little collateral form. Pearl Dance from atop yard is sure to prove popular and must have chances after winning debut. With no supreme confidence, I suggest Mail the Desert might follow up - the impression was he won quite comfortably at Windsor and surprised connections into the bargain. That often means you have a good horse on your hands - let's hope that it the case here.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Mail the Desert
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
3:05 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>Just 9 go to post (although Boreas is doubtful) but this is no easy call. For me the interesting horse here is Asian Heights (see entry in Horses to Follow section) and we were obviously pleased he made such an encouraging return from serious injury at Windsor albeit in a muddling race beating Potemkin. Frankly, we are surprised connections are considering running on such fast ground and there must be a risk that like Boreas that he will be pulled out on the day. We have enough doubts that even if he runs then we doubt he can perform up to his best and must be passed over. Zindabad is tough (and will make this race tough probably from the front) but under his penalty he along with Yavana's Pace (glad to see him back on these shores) have it all to do with such smart performers as Millenary and Storming Home in the field. While I suspect Storming Home (who does not have a great win record) might just not be as effective on really fast ground, Millenary (ultra consistent and tough performer) has put up some of his best efforts on that type of surface. He was a little unfortunate on his reappearance (holds Storming Home, Zindabad and High Pitched on that effort) where he came to win his race only to be passed in the shadow of the post by Marienbard. He can get his reward for such consistency at this level here. High Pitched (who is exactly that) stormed home last time in the style of an improving performer but in reality probably beat a weak field. Potemkin and The Mask do not look up to this level.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Millenary
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
3:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (formerly The Cork and Orrery Stakes)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>Johannesburg and Caller One make this of special interest. The O'Brien horse is likely to be very short here and for me has plenty to prove after his excellent second year at this trip not least that he has trained on (or recovered from his exertions). Worth taking on, while Caller One (all credit for connections for bringing him over) will surely find "playing away from home" and the transition from dirt to turf beyond him. Otherwise pretty much wide open with the likes of Continent (fresh from a smart performance earlier in the week), Danehurst (always liked this one but usually likes some give), the Dunlop pair Invincible Spirit and Vision of Night, Mugharreb (held in high regard) and Three Points (Godolphin bullish) looking the more obvious contenders. With Three Points having plenty of chances at this level and Continent often unlucky in running and presenting difficulties for his jockey in terms of delivery, I suggest a small interest in either of the Dunlop pair with Vision of Night who appeared to put in an improved performance at Sandown in the Temple Stakes (form lines which give him the nod over many of these including his stablemate) and more can be expected at this distance where he has always been better. He might go of at a value price and being so consistent could give us a good run for our money.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Vision of Night
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
4:20 Wokingham Stakes Showcase H' cap
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>The usual difficulties here - the complexities of the draw (the rail position on either rail might be an
advantage) and where the pace will be, together with a maximum field to unravel. You have to consider the in form handicappers to help solve the puzzle (Kathology, Marsad, Chookie Helton, Onlytime Will Tell and Border Subject fall into this category). Others like Watching (may find the ground to fast), Brevity (perhaps still not well handicapped and Capricho (seldom delivers but promises much) are not entirely out of it. I'll take a chance on one from each side - low (Border Subject) who has won impressively both starts and despite the welter burden has plenty of class and could defy it, while on the high side I think
Onlytime Will Tell can put in a bold show (has been unlucky with the draw on a couple of occasions this season) but has generally performed admirably and won nicely at Epsom on Derby Day.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Onlytime Will Tell
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Border Subject
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬> Vanderlin (Long Shot)
4:55 Sandringham Rated Stakes (H' cap) (Fillies) (Registered As Fern Hill Stakes) (Listed Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>A stiff challenge with many running on very different ground conditions to which they have most recently shown there best form. With many also not exactly looking well handicapped this presents a real puzzle. Perhaps, the Irish challenger (Vinthea) has least to fear on these counts (seems to act on good ground at least) and looks highly progressive - she gets the vote in an open contest. Tashawak is smart and I'll be keeping an eye on her for the future - she might just be good enough to steal a place at a price.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Vinthea
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Tashawak (E/W)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
5:30 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>I have never liked Cover Up but reluctantly admit he has respectable chances here. Double Honour is smart (but appears to have lost his way a little - this is easier) while First Ballot is tough and can lead these a merry dance. I was going to select Yorkshire (in good nick over hurdles) but as this one likes things to go his own way he may not enjoy First Ballot's company in front. With many of these outclassed, you would have to think San Sebastian might still be able to mount a challenge (but is probably not as good as he was) while Archduke Ferdinand is a useful stayer on his day (but those days are few and far between). Reluctantly then this all looks set up for Cover Up who I often find looks moody but at his best last season could quite easily put this lot to bed. As, he looks to have been laid out for this (the distance looks ideal) I'll trust Stoute's judgement that he has him ready to deliver over a course where he has run well in the past.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Cover Up
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
ROYAL ASCOT
Friday, June 21st 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Wolferton Rated Stakes Showcase H' cap (Listed Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Not too many have everything in their favour here with many over a wrong trip or on the wrong ground. For example, you would have to think the ground has gone to quick for Holy Orders (ran so well earlier this week) and Vintage Premium who is on a
hat-trick. With the trip looking wrong for the likes (among others) of I Cried for You and Xtra then there really are a few who make much appeal. One who does seem to have most things in his favour is Johannian who won so well at York and put in another good effort in a three runner contest last time. Ground and distance will suit. Others worth considering are Transatlantic (who might just be better this year), Arabie (unlucky to come up the wrong side at Epsom), Torcello (on the strength of Wragg's Ascot record but he is an infrequent winner) and Ulundi who despite top weight is smart on this ground and at this trip (holds a decision of Thundering Surf which catches the eye after that one's performance earlier in the week. He could be the major threat and looks a great each ew bet here.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Johannian
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Ulundi (E/W)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 King Edward VII Stakes {gr. 2} (Colts & Geldings)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Looks a tight affair. Not much on York running between Bollin Eric and Balakheri and both likely to improve for the step up in trip. Difficult to choose between them. Bustan (unbeaten) has a listed success on fast ground to his name and can be expected to put in a bold show. With Sparkling Water (tends to be a bit one paced),
Kaieteur (having plenty to prove at this level), First Charter (has plenty to prove overall and was beaten a long way last time) it might be safest to stick with Diaghilev who ran respectably in the French Derby (and that may prove to be a "hot" contest in due course) and who had won his two three year old runs previously including at Group 3 level. But, as I have a slight doubt about the trip, I'll give the tentative vote to Bollin Eric (who is well regarded by connections) and the stable is going well.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Bollin Eric
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 Coronation Stakes {gr. 1} (Fillies)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> The big question here is how will Gossamer perform on the faster ground - her trainer is confident she can perform well on it. I have to say,
I'm not sure the form book backs this up. I'll have to oppose her and the Irish Guineas form overall although the Guineas form looks to be where we should concentrate our thoughts. Red Liason (German) looks sure to set a strong pace - may just take some catching on a course which may suit. However, you would have to expect Zenda (French) and Dolores (English) to have sufficient pace to stay handy and deliver a late and telling burst. I find it quite hard to choose between the two but just feel Zenda (who
didn't handle the ground in Ireland) has the more telling finishing kick which could be decisive. On that basis, you have to consider Sophisticat on the French form with Zenda but she does seem more likely to find trouble in running and may not have the race run to suit - she is often unlucky.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Zenda
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Dolores
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 Queen's Vase {gr. 3}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Plenty of progressive sorts here - many who will progress at this trip. I cannot get away from the Group 1 form that the selection brings to this contest (5th in the French Derby) and earlier Group 2 effort (placed) both over 12F. He is running like the trip could suit him down to the ground and his level of form cannot be matched by the other contenders. He might just have too much class at the end of the day.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Black Sam Bellamy
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Windsor Castle Stakes (Conditions Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> One of the weaker looking 2 year old events of the week on paper. I repeat here my comments earlier in the week concerning the O'Brien runners that you cannot take them on with any degree of confidence and an each way selection is therefore the safest option in my opinion. This should be possible here with Ontario looking a worthy favourite and likely winner (but serving to set up the market for an each way punt) after his form was boosted by Pakhoes fine effort on the opening day. Several worthy candidates for the each way option - but none more so than the twice raced Sir Albert whose form with The Bonus King reads well enough here to warrant that vote. One Last Time also has that form connection to The Bonus King but the step down in trip looks unlikely to suit based on his staying on effort last time. Silca Boo and Redding could also be considered for a place.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Sir Albert (E/W)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Buckingham Palace Stakes (H' cap)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Suggestive on our next time out winners feature looks sure to go close but the ground is a bit of a worry and he really must be overlooked on that basis. It would come as no surprise if Scotty's Future could return to his best following his Hunt Cup failure and Dandy Nicholls is quite astute at doing this kind of thing. But in what is clearly a wide open contest, I'll go with Gateman (one of our horses to follow) who is unexposed in this country but is ultra tough judged on his two efforts so far. Has been running over shorter but has form over much further than this so this trip might prove ideal.
While there is a danger the handicapper may have not been that kind, I'll take a risk with the stable hitting form yesterday.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Gateman
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Scotty's Future
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
ROYAL ASCOT
Thursday, June 20th 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Ribblesdale Stakes {gr. 2} (Fillies)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Succinct (E/W)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 Norfolk Stakes {gr. 3}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>The Lord (E/W)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 Gold Cup {gr. 1}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Invermark
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Bosham Mill
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 King George V Stakes (H' cap)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Leadership
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Systematic
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Hampton Court Stakes (Registered As The New Stakes) (Listed Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Common World
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Kayseri
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Britannia H' cap (Colts & Geldings)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Moten Swing
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Darks Charm
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
ROYAL ASCOT
Wednesday, June 19th 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Jersey Stakes {gr. 3}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Stick to the Group 1 form for this contest. Redback,
Twilight Blues, Meshaheer and Compton Dragon represent English Guineas form. That form is increasingly looking rock solid. Redback who came out best on Guineas day has done precious little wrong in his career and is an extremely difficult horse to get past. I don't expect his opponents to succeed today but I suspect the improved
Twilight Blues could be the one to give him most to worry about. The others, though decent, don't greatly appeal as having significant chances of proving up to Group 1 level form so Compton Dragon and Meshaheer must also come into the argument and have place chances. Compton Dragon on the wrong side in the Guineas ran well at Kempton and is clearly smart and may come out best again of those two.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Redback
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 Queen Mary Stakes {gr. 3} (Fillies)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> I think we are really at the stage where we should stand behind Aiden O'Brien's judgment especially with regard to the Ascot 2 year old contests (such is his recent domination) and not oppose his horses with win selections. His entry here is Proud Beauty who is a rare commodity as she comes here as a runner up in a 6F maiden with no wins to her name which is very untypical of the usual profile. She really looks worth taking on in such a wide open contest where any number have claims but this has proved a costly in the past. Richard Hannon who has such a good record in the race makes life no easier but running three unbeaten horses while Channon who also does well in this contest runs Queen's Victory. Presto Vento and Rag Top have done little wrong (three wins to their name already) all on stiff tracks at this distance or beyond and perhaps racing experience could be the deciding factor in their favour over many of her lightly raced rivals here. Presto Vento gets the marginal each way vote because of the O'Brien factor.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Presto Vento (E/W)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 Prince of Wales's Stakes {gr. 1}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> As much as I appreciate the quality amongst this field, the memory of Banks Hill's wins at R. Ascot and in America last season prevail. The 3lbs she receives from all but Golden Silca (outclassed) could be crucial alongside a turn of foot which could be delivered late here. The key is whether she is back to that sort of form now - you'd certainly have to expect she would be sharper for her prep at Longchamp in May and can overturn placings with Paolini. Of the others Bach is a tough cookie (as shown in a great effort last time) and will be a tough opponent, Nayef may be done for a turn of foot, while Desert Deer has plenty to prove in my book (though has the potential to do it). Grandera is very consistent and could have a very good year now with the Godolphin team. He represents the main threat.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Banks Hill
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Grandera
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 Royal Hunt Cup Showcase H' cap
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> A typically wide open Hunt Cup. I can make cases for many: Sea Star (very progressive this year), Scotty's Future (hugely impressive Victoria Cup winner), Zucchero (Lincoln winner who may be an improved performer and laid out for this), Island Light (well regarded, smart form and nicely weighted), Faithful Warrior (no form this year but smart last term) and
Beauchamp Pilot (progressive and perhaps better than a handicapper). There are others but these are the
principals in my view. Whichever way I look at this, it is hard to get away from Beauchamp Pilot who returned in such pleasing style at Haydock beating York winner Champion Lodge comfortably in the process. He seems ideally weighted compared to many in the list above and if he finds improvement from that reappearance effort he looks sure to be involved in the finish. He is the selection. Whether he represents value however (this has clearly gone) is a mute point and certainly I will be interested in any double figure prices where perhaps I can obtains some each way value with regards to Island Light and Scotty's Future in particular. Best long shot Faithful Warrior - not run up to form so far but if Hill's has worked the oracle he could go well at a decent price.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Beauchamp Pilot
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Scotty's Future (e/w) or Island Light
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬> Faithful Warrior (Long shot)
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Ascot Stakes (H' cap)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> Frankly, very little appeals here among the 29 runners. As always Martin Pipe runners will come in for support in view of his past record in the race and Riyadh did run well enough in the Chester Cup. He may go well without winning. High and Mighty (a previous winner) makes plenty of appeal - has been running well all season - and was a little unfortunate in that Chester Cup. He can go well but one further down the weights I'm prepared to take a chance with is the progressive Hugs Dancer. In very capable hands, he won three contest last year and reappeared at York in May running a creditable second. Sure to come on for that, this trip holds no fears for him having won over further at Goodwood and I suspect he can make weight advantage tell. He could improve again this term. Distant Prospect is an old favourite (and useful) but even good ground could be just to quick for this one.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Hugs Dancer
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> High and Mighty
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬> See my comments on the Queen Mary summary. In this case, Tomahawk's win at the Curragh (5F soft) already makes him the form pick and he will start at a short price. He already has a reputation among the O'Brien youngsters which really is saying something. Despite being penalised, on different ground and over 2F further you really
wouldn't want to oppose him despite the relatively unknown qualities of his opponents. Trying to judge the level of form of his opponents in low level contests at the likes of Bath, Redcar, Nottingham and Windsor is extremely difficult. The
filly Celtic Sapphire gets the each way vote for those wanting to oppose the favourite as she looked a sure fire winner (ran green but got the hang of things late on at Redcar) of a similar contest at that level and can find plenty of improvement on that effort especially with this step up in trip likely to suit.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Tomahawk
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Celtic Sapphire (E/W)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
ROYAL ASCOT
Tuesday, June 18th 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Queen Anne Stakes {gr. 2}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Nayyir
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬> Swallow Flight, (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 King's Stand Stakes {gr. 2}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Kyllachy
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Smokin Beau, (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 St James's Palace Stakes {gr. 1} (Colts)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>King of Happiness
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 Coventry Stakes {gr. 3}
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Coconut Penang
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Tacitus, (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (H' cap)
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Takamaka Bay
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Night Sight, (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Balmoral H' cap
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¦ .t.h.e. .f.l.a.t. .m.a.n. ¦:¬>
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Mubaah, (e/w)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>
2000 GUINEAS - The TV races from Newmarket
2:05 Countrywide Steel & Tubes Rated Stakes (H' cap) £20000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 2f, penalty £12174.20, 12 runners.
Those of most interest include Wood Dalling, Broadway Score, Kuster, Pole Star and Eastern Breeze in a difficult heat. Broadway Score could be in for a good season based on his Haydock comeback (making up for last time after missing most of last season) and looks sure to try and make all. He might just succeed. You cannot help feeling overall though that the percentage call (likely to be reflected in market support) for Henry Cecil's Wood Dalling and he is the percentage call after his promising return in the Newbury Spring Cup. He finished close up in fourth in a race not entirely run to suit his strengths - the stronger pace here and step up in trip could bring about an enhanced performance. Henry Cecil, of course, does so well with this type of animal. Pole Star is a similar type (gelded over the winter) and generally not
over-raced by his astute trainer, could have a fine season. Could go close. Eastern Breeze may go well at a price - won his race at Leicester in a smart time (compared to a useful performer - Systematic - on the same day) and may be an improved performer this year. Overall then, while I have plenty of respect for Broadway Score's chances of making all, I feel the Cecil colt just may be in for a good time this year and is open to plenty of improvement under these conditions.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Wood Dalling
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬> Eastern Breeze
2:40 Victor Chandler Palace House Stakes {Gr.3} £40000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £23200, 12 runners.
Continent has done nothing wrong this term. I have no doubt that he can be as effective at 5F rather than the 6F which he has been running over (especially with a strong pace assured). Indeed this could be to his advantage as he tends to pull quite hard in his races over 6F. The trouble is he likes to come from behind and can find trouble - Fallon in the plate today is used to extricating horses from such positions however on a daily basis. Despite his obvious chances this looks quite competitive and horses such as Smokin Beau, Pomfret Lad, Indian Prince, Jessica's Dream, Kyllachy,
Mariinsky and last year's winner Rushcutter Bay make this a difficult call. Jessica's Call is actually unbeaten at the trip and cannot be dismissed likely - sure to have been laid out for this. Smokin Beau looks sure to run well and this step up in grade looks entirely possible at that one's rate of progression last season (well in with Continent on some lines of form). Kyllachy improving at a rate of knots cannot be dismissed. Pomfret Lad is also smart and Makin is very adept at getting one ready first time - that one might be the surprise package. While he will not represent value, Continent is the selection to deliver his smart turn of foot and maintain the improvement he has shown this
year. As to whether you want to put any cash on it is another matter - I'm sure he can win "if" the gaps appear - that's in Mr Fallon's hands.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬> Continent
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬> Pomfret Lad
3:15 ladbrokes.com H' cap £40000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £23200, 30 runners.
30 runners and a blanket likely to cover many of the field at the finish. The comments made above about Pomfret Lad apply equally to Marabar here and that one is worthy of close inspection. It goes without saying that a sprinter in form is worth following and several fall into this category not least Grey Cossack Type One and Carrie Porter. In no more than hopeful vein, I give my vote to Onlytime Will Tell who I backed at Ascot in the Victoria Cup in midweek and he was simply beaten by the draw (actually won the race on the far side). He led most of the way that day and I'm hopeful he can keep pace with these faster horses today. Let's hope the race does not come too soon - that's a chance I'm prepared to take - Nicholls regularly does this with his horses so it should not be a concern.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬> Onlytime Will Tell
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬> Marabar
3:55 2000 GUINEAS Stakes {Gr.1} £300000 added, 3yo only colts and fillies, 1m, penalty £174000, 22 runners.
An international field with leading challengers from all shores. It really seems you need mind bending drugs to work this one out. Hawk Wing at 6-4 appears to have well stated chances but with so many in opposition from the major stables that price does not appeal at all to me. His form in any case is not waterproof. What slightly concerns me as well is that O'Brien is willing to oppose him with so many runners from his own team - does that mean that there is less between them than might be anticipated. While the Rook has given a more detailed analysis of this event in his piece, I'll content myself with selecting an each way choice - Twilight Blues- which impressed me a good deal when winning the Free handicap. A nice type in the paddock that day he looks to have improved significantly over the winter and displayed a nice turn of foot that day. More obviously needed here, but he gets the tentative vote at likely odds. I think I'd rather try and get a horse place in this than try to pick a winner against the big team's runners where I only get confused trying to assess the merits between the stable companions. For example, I thought Tendulkar looked an ideal candidate for this last season but I find George Duffield on board (with the greatest respect to him I have to ask myself why?). So let's go with Plan B......to small stakes obviously and
savour a great race.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Twilight Blues (e/w)
¦ alternative² ¦:¬>
THE FLAT MAN
Saturday, May 04, 2002
THE GRAND NATIONAL
Some high quality performers (largely reflected by those at the head of the weights as you would expect) contest this year's race. Can that quality established around park courses be transferred to these unique obstacles? - that is the key question because if it can then the winner is surely among them.
I have my doubts. I should explain. The best form on offer is the Cheltenham Gold Cup represented here by Marlborough, Alexander Banquet and What's Up Boys. The final two here both put in a fairly sloppy round' of jumping at Cheltenham which effectively ruined their chances. At this first look at the National fences, mistakes along those lines will see the end of their chances - I'm not prepared to take that risk. Marlborough, arguably most unlucky in the Gold Cup (made his only serious error just as the pace quickened and he
couldn't make up that ground) was once a very dodgy jumper himself but has been a revelation in recent times. But these fences could surely test his new found confidence to the full. Despite this suspicion, I also have a sneaking feeling that he is just the type of horse to really take to them and if that's the case he may be able to make his class tell despite 11:12. But there is also the sneaking suspicion based on Scottish National form of whether he can see the trip out (although he did injure himself that day). Ad Hoc is a similar horse in that jumping problems were his downfall more often than not before he to reformed last term. To my mind Ad Hoc still makes too many blunders to get my ticket and I am not at all convinced he'll survive the test. Of the others in the upper weight range, Kingsmark looks to have plenty on with 11:9 while Lyreen Wonder may find conditions on the fast side and makes the odd mistake.
Further down the list, many are easy to discount. Of those worthy of consideration, Smarty runner up last year would appear to have an obvious chance but I'm not convinced he will stay (even as far as last year where he
didn't get home) where a faster run race than last year's slog can be expected. Blowing Wind is in a similar position - I think he'll go well for a long way but not get home. Murt's Man jumping is too poor despite his recent good form, Samuel Wilderspin has possibilities but his best is on soft ground, Wicked Crack needs soft as does Streamstown, there must be doubts about how much ability the fragile National runner up Mely Moss retains and The Last Fling's jumping is always of concern especially here.
Of the remainder, I think Beau, Paris Pike, David's Lad, Majed and Spot Thedifference
are the only others worthy of consideration. Beau actually seemed to like these fences last year before an unfortunate exit and if enjoying himself again can go well. But he has not been in the greatest form and you are taking that chance. Paris Pike (a fine jumper of park fences) is similar in a sense in that he seems to have shown little recently but has that touch of quality to enable him to go close if he can recapture his Scottish National form. Majed is an extraordinary entrant (no chasing experience in the UK but plenty in France) he could be the longshot to be interested in but it is a really big ask. This really leaves the Irish challengers (widely different in class) but both seeming to be sound jumpers who look sure to go well on the good ground.
David's Lad has won the Irish Grand National (his best form) over 3.5F so you who be hopeful that staying is a real possibility. He ran
commendably at Cheltenham and has not been disgraced over much shorter trips which could be a useful asset around Aintree.
Spot Thedifference is generally progressive at a much lower level and with 9:13 looks nicely handicapped. Has an astute trainer and chance cannot be easily dismissed.
Conclusion
As much as I like Marlborough, 11:12 just puts me off sufficiently as any jumping errors will hurt him more than most (and it would be entirely understandable if he was not totally fluent). I am quite keen on Beau because of the Aintree factor but his lack of form is a worry I cannot pass over. Paris Pike is the type to go well but he is in a similar boat to Beau and has not experienced the fences. David's Lad has plenty in his favour and is sure to be well ridden and I suspect may end up favourite on the day. I'll take a chance that
Spot Thedifference can make the weight difference pay and continue on his upward curve - he will also be well ridden by the talented Casey. A pound or two on Majed may also provide some excitement.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Spot Thedifference
¦ 2nd choice ¦:¬>David's Lad
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Paris Pike
¦ Long Shot ¦:¬>Majed (FR)
BREEDER'S CUP at BELMONT PARK
Saturday 27th October
6:20 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> The formbook appears to indicate that there is little between the selection, Exogenous, Fleet Renee, Spain and Critical Eye. Of the others the improving Miss Linda (fast time winner last time) looks the only other to consider. Flute's consistency wins her the vote (also reported unlucky last time) which should enable her to get the better of the argument this time especially with the likes of Fleet Renee and Spain having a difficult draw. As there may not be much in it however, Miss Linda could spring the surprise taking into account her style of running (go for home approach early in the straight) which may take some pegging back.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Flute
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Miss Linda
6:55 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> All eyes will be on "You" (likely favourite) but you (pardon the pun) must question that a horse with so much apparent blinding speed can produce this over an extended mile. UK racing logic anyway says "no" and on that basis I'll take a chance that the unbeaten Habibti (has won both starts easily enough judging by the formbook) and will appreciate the trip. Similar comments apply to Bella Bellucci but he doe not look quite as good. Sophisticat (O'Brien) chances have to be respected but I'd prefer to take on the European 2 year olds here rather than support them (it's difficult enough for those with experience).
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Habibti
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>
7:35 Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~>Noverre seems to have a very respectable chance in this in what looks overall a below par contest. Numerous Times and Val Royal also come into it but Forbidden Apple gets my vote in view of his Belmont record and that his trainer feels he is best at this time of year. This may not be the case for the Godolphin challenger after her long season.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Forbidden Apple
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>
8:10 Penske Auto Centers Breeders Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> One hell of a sprint. I was keen on Mozart's chances some months ago after his European exploits at the top level but this looks tough for him against the best America can offer on their terms. However, all hope is not lost if you believe the view that it takes a horse who can stay further to win this event. Kona Gold's abilities are well known, those of El Corredor, Caller One, Xtra Heat less so. In a wide open contest, I'll select the filly (unbeaten in 13 races at sprint distances catches my eye) who may represent some value while having plenty of respect for established US star Kona Gold.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Xtra Heat
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Mozart
8:45 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> The American challenge again looks suspect. On that basis, I see the Fabre challenge as dominating here, Lailani (so progressive and significantly acclimatised) can also go well although has a difficult draw which is a big negative. Volga and England's Legend must also come into it. Kalypso Katie does not appear to have found her good English form here yet and is passed over. But the selection is a confident one, likely to improve stepped up to this trip this French filly has form in the book up to the required standard here over 8F (may not have been suited to the ground most recent starts). There is more to come from Spring Oak and she gets the sporting each way vote here if she can step up.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Banks Hill
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Spring Oak
9:20 Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> Well if you have been reading the papers this week then you would have come across Officer - likely to be one of the shortest priced horses of this any past Breeder's Cup. Challengers from Came Home, Jump Start, Siphonic and Striking Song and the Irish challenger Johannesburg (doubt about stepping up in trip) mean that a short price is probably not worth taking about Officer. I suggest the each way option looks best with Officer making the market and Siphonic (unbeaten and impressive in two starts who should appreciate the trip) gets the nod.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~>
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Siphonic
9:55 Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> Fantastic Light represents in my view almost the complete professional racehorse and it seems folly to oppose him here despite a nagging doubt that 12F is his Achilles heel. My confidence is boosted by the apparent (relative) "weakness" of the opposition which is led by front runners With Anticipation and Mutamam. With Mutamam likely to upset the American contender by taking him on a case of "burn out" may occur setting up the race for Fantastic Light whose form with Galileo is out of the top drawer including at this distance at Ascot. He'll be good enough. Hap clearly is a useful performer but the trip is a doubt (this is his first attempt) so any faltering by the selection could let in a sure to stay Milan whose style of running may allow him to pounce late if this is fast.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Fantastic Light
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Milan
10:35 Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~>Well the big question is "Can Galileo do it on dirt?" - I personally see no reason why not but the evidence says Saddler's Wells horses do not perform up to standard on the surface. He is an exceptional horse though and I can see him going close but you have to respect history don't you? With Tiznow apparently becoming difficult to train the safest option with Sakhee also likely to struggle on the surface is to select either Aptitude or Include to land the big un for the US side. Aptitude seemingly the more progressive and appearing to have the greater turn of foot should put up a good show.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Aptitude
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>
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