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Analysis
& Selections by The Flat Man -
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs,
we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the
fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and
requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner
or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular
may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the
"ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is
the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
CHAMPION STAKES DAY -
The Flatman previews the meeting
NEWMARKET
Saturday 20th October
1:45 Jockey Club Cup (Group 3)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> With one of my favourite horses (Royal Rebel) looking to have lost his way after plenty of hard races - Mick Kinane looks to rekindle his enthusiasm here - this looks best left to Rainbow High who looks the most likely to run his race here and has the form in the book over many of these old rivals to get the vote here.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Rainbow High
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>
2:15 Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> Tough Speed is upped in class but takes the easier route after being supplemented for the Champion. Must o well although soft ground would be a concern. However, I 'd prefer to stick with horses who are proven at this level and Fath appeals on his Goodwood effort (but is quirky and pulls hard) so the safer option is probably Reel Buddy if you look back to his early season form in winning the European Free handicap. He has not been the most fortunate of horses in recent efforts and I feel he is worth a chance here in what is an open contest. Has a good turn of foot. Of the others, Nice One Clare and Father Thames could get into the argument.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Reel Buddy
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Fath
2:55 Tote Cesarewitch Showcase Handicap
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> While it always seems to me that horses apparently thrown in at the weights in handicaps following Group race performances never seem to win I'm finding it difficult to pass over the selection here. There was simply no fluke about that Doncaster Cup success (which followed plenty of handicap success) to cast any doubt on the validity of that form and with just 8:2 here it looks difficult for the more talented performers here which include the likes of Barba Papa, Ravenswood, Distant Prospect and Hirapour to concede weight. Of the others, Taffrail is an improving individual on a four timer but any cut in the ground may see his chances pass by. So, it is Ravenswood (we have long been a fan at Furlong to Go) who warrants the each way choice for those wanting to back at longer odds. He was very unfortunate last time and has long threatened to win a race of this nature - handles good to soft surfaces.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Alleluia
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Ravenswood
3:30 Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> While I was most impressed by the good looking Comfy at York which it is worth noting has been backed for next year's Guineas in recent days, it is hard to forget the manner of the G1 effort by Rock Of Gibraltar at Longchamp where he simply toyed with the opposition. With the trainer's record in this race outstanding he will be difficult to overcome here and I'm not prepared to oppose him. With the trainer' record in mind both Landseer (who holds a decision over the selection) and Tendulkar should also be considered (but surely inexperience will be this one's undoing).
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Rock of Gibraltar
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Landseer
4:10 Dubai Champion Stakes (Group 1)
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Runner(s) mentioned in our "Horses To Follow" Feature:<>: ~~> No Excuse Needed
THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> Has Kieran Fallon got it wrong? I think so - it seems safer to me to rely on the selection who is proven with ease in the ground than the talented fast ground winner No Excuse Needed who has the better form (also unproven at the trip). The selection has a real turn of foot which I expect to be deployed to devastating effect here - his last effort to dispose of the ultra-tough Albarahin by 3 lengths makes plenty of appeal to me for one so inexperienced. Plenty more to come I suspect. Frankie has also chosen Best of the Bests over the unbeaten Equerry and Derby 3rd Tobougg here which I also find odd in view of the formers fine record which links well into the recent Arc form. The favourite Nayef who is clearly thriving has winning form but it does not read well to me - he'll need to improve again to get into the shake up and looks worth taking on here.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Carnival Dancer
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Equerry
4:45 Owen Brown Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
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THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> A difficult contest to call in my view and I doubt there will be much in it. Echo River caught a tartar last time in Half Glance (conceded 3lbs) but impressed me in that defeat - I don't think there is anything of that quality here. I just suspect she might be ideally suited by 7F than the mile faced last time - she is certainly not short of pace. The O'Brien pair don't immediately appeal - Lahinch who has won twice over 5F impresses me most but they both obviously need plenty of respect. The other to fall into this category is Misterah (who has two fast ground wins which is the doubt) but who has looked likely to improve over this additional furlong. Cannot be ruled out.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Echo River
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Lahinch
5:20 NGK Spark Plugs Handicap
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Runner(s) mentioned in our "Future Winners" Feature:<>: ~~>Nisr,
THE FLATMAN :<>:~~> Stratton has been winning with so much in hand of late that providing the ground does not get too soft (trainer states he will not run if it does) he looks well up to winning this contest despite the steadier of 10:0. Just beaten once in his past 5 starts there is neither much quality or unexposed opposition here to worry him. Lapwing is very consistent but in the handicapper's grip and might go well again while Kayo, Millennium Force, Cardinal Venture, How Do I Know, Swynford Welcome and Zhitomir are in some form and appeal most of the others. For the each way choice, I've gone for Cork Harbour in the hope he can reproduce his effort behind Swynford Welcome last time where he is also weighted to reverse that narrow defeat. This ties in closely with Stratton form lines. Finally, Amicable needs close consideration, he has lost his way of late (would be well up to winning this on earlier form) but I cannot suggest him here on recent efforts but any positive market moves may well indicate he has returned to his best.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Stratton
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Cork Harbour
ST. LEGER MEETING -
The Flatman previews the meeting
ST. LEGER MEETING
saturday 15th September
2.00 GNER Conditions Stakes 11runners 6f Penalty £8697 2yo only
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[THE FLATMAN] --> The Middle Park entered Telesto should come on considerably from York debut (didn't perform too badly) and the confidence of connections sway me in his favour. Mr Toad is the obvious alternative (form pick in fact) but I'll take well bred Far Lane (by Lear Fan) who should be suited by 6F and Barry Hill's has already won with a debutant this week. One for the future for sure.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Telesto
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Far Lane
2.30 Torne Valley Handicap 20runners 1m 4f Penalty £19012.50 3yo plus
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Not too many of these make much appeal. Princess Titania who is in great heart must have chances but will she stay beyond the 10F over which she has been successful? - her front running style will mean there will be no hiding place. With the useful Octavius Caesar (again badly drawn), Ahraar on a 4 timer (not beaten much to date), Inch Perfect (not the horse he was) and High Pitched (open to improvement but hardly jumps off the page at you on achievements to date) I think Maceo and more speculatively Dream With Me make most appeal. The latter looks to be a most consistent sort judged on French form who is effective at the trip / ground. A significant jockey booking could mean he has been readied at the first time of asking - any money would be significant. I think, however, that in a race sure to be run at a good pace Dream With Me may struggle to give so much weight on ground which may be nearer soft than good come race time which is the perfect conditions for Maceo who is on a three timer.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Maceo
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Dream With Me
3.00 Porcelanosa Rated Stakes (Class B Handicap) 12 runners 1m Penalty £15993.49 3yo plus
[±±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] --> A class B handicap in all but name with some disappointing types on show. For this reason, Mornings Minion two wins in class D handicaps look good enough to bridge the step up in class. Clearly in good heart I see the main danger to be the 3 year old Haasil (back after quite an absence).
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Mornings Minion
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Haasil
3.35 Rothmans Royals St Leger Stakes (Showcase Race) (Group 1) 11runners 1m 6f 132yds Penalty £222000 3yo only colts and fillies
[±±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] --> Despite the negatives (see comments below) the overriding memory of Alexius was the astounding display he put up in the Gordon Stakes. The turn of foot he displayed to come from last to first was class. He is clearly open to considerable improvement but must overcome relative inexperience to conquer here. Milan looks the obvious danger now that he is racing over a trip which looks sure to suit. However, he doesn't' possess a turn of foot like the Stoute contender. So much will depend on how true a test this will be and with Pugin, Mr Combustible and Alunissage in the field this looks assured. Pugin is a tough cookie and holds a decision over Mr Combustible in the Irish Derby on this surface which must be a major worry for the Hill's team. He was also beaten at Doncaster on this ground and yet he is 2-1/Pugin around 16-1. With Pugin liable to set this up for a finisher (providing they can stay - he certainly does) I expect the held up Alexius to pounce late and fast and leave Milan and Pugin to battle for the places.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Alexius
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> Alexius is not much value concerning he is inexperienced/untested on the ground/trip - the experts seem in no doubt he will stay - I have some doubts - and bearing in mind the strength of the opposition. The each way bet on Pugin (looks sure to be underestimated here) and makes plenty of appeal as the safest bet.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Pugin
4.15 Ladbrokes.co.uk Stakes (Handicap) 20runners 1m 2f 60yds Penalty £19987.50 3yo plus
[±±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] --> Another field of pretty modest performers. The few who make most appeal are Pinchincha, Jumaireyah, Robandela and Moon Goddess. The latter seems to have the potential for most improvement than most of these and she was a little unlucky if I recall correctly on her latest start at Goodwood where I noted her down as a sure fire future winner. She won't get many easier opportunities than this!
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Moon Goddess
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Pinchincha
4.45 Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) 14runners 5f Penalty £30000 2yo only
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Hugely competitive event. Difficult to discount to many of these. Sure to be a blinding pace. Good Girl who may have bitten off more than she could chew last time is worth another chance to atone for her defeat last time based on her authoritative Newbury effort beforehand.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Good Girl
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
5.20 Battle Of Britain Nursery Handicap 22runners 7f Penalty £8060 2yo only
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Hard to call - these nursery handicaps are a real test. I think one key point will be a high draw and I'm particularly frustrated in that those which have impressed me recently (for example the likes of Sir Northerndancer) is drawn low. I'll take a chance that Flownaway with a pretty good draw can return to winning ways with his conqueror last time draw on the opposite site. Mitawa and Miss Opulence make each way appeal.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] -->Flownaway
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Miss Opulence
ST. LEGER MEETING
Friday 14th September
1:30 DBS St Leger Yearling Stakes
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[THE FLATMAN] --> T Easterby runs 4 and all seem to have chances of sorts. With Berry and Littmoden also keen to win this contest clearly the competition will be fierce here. Advance Party can spoil the party in my opinion judged on the authoritative display shown at Windsor - likely to come on a bundle for that experience. Worth a chance in an open contest.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Advance Party
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
2:05 Joy UK Conditions Stakes
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[THE FLATMAN] --> This is difficult in that most of these have become rather disappointing. Dalampour, Inglenook, Nooshman, Island Sound and Sydenham all fall into this category for me for different reasons. Of the others, Aldebaran stands out despite form figures of 2222. His efforts behind Dandoun and Mozart being particularly commendable and I have no doubts about his genuineness. I have every hope that this step up in trip is within his compass (breeding suggests he should) although that is the big doubt if you back this one - he is also untested on the ground. With the other progressive types Ennoblement, Torcello and Lagudin looking too have plenty on their plates despite their obvious ability I'll stick with the Cecil colt.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Aldebaran
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
2:35 Tote Exacta Mallard Stakes Showcase H'cap
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Ravenswood, Solo Flight, Hambledon, Big Moment, Harlestone Grey and Special appear to hold the aces here. Solo Flight is perhaps the most interesting here based on his Ebor run. Receiving a rather "curious" ride to say the least this one also found plenty of trouble in running creditably in that York contest. Certainly left the impression with me and many other observers that he was one to keep a very close eye on in the future. He gets the nod over Special who looks to have crept in the handicap of a nice mark - winning form which does not particularly inspire.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Solo Flight
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Special
3:05 Rothmans Royals Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings)
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Looks another Godolphin/O'Brien battle. Dubai Destination to have far to much pace for Rock of Gibraltar is my conclusion with the 4lb penalty helping the cause. Sohaib put in place by the selection is talented and may give him most to do. Stable going well.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Dubai Destination
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Sohaib
3:40 Amco Corporation Troy Stakes (Listed Race)
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Yet another contest with many not living up to expectations. On that basis, one to buck that trend here is the ridiculously easy Yarmouth maiden winner Nash Me. 12 lengths he won by last week and clearly has a bright future. Despite this one's inexperience, Loder has stepped him up quickly - take that hint. Boreas has training problems but is decidedly useful when he gets on the track - represents the principle danger.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Nash Me
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
4:10 CPL Industries Challenge Trophy (Conditions Guaranteed Sweepstakes)
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Rumpold should really take this with the minimum of fuss if anywhere near his previous form levels. Menaggio did us a big priced favour last time and Sonatina has been competing well in respectable contests. The overriding feeling remains however that Godolphin can take this with their former 2'000 Guineas contender even if he is not as good as he once was which is debatable.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Rumpold
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
4:40 Coalite Smokeless Fuels H'cap Stakes
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[THE FLATMAN] --> Pipadash is in blinding form and can race of the same mark as his recent success. He looks worth sticking with in a wide open contest - sprinters in form often run up sequences. Flak Jacket was a little unlucky with the draw last time and ran with credit. He can put in another bold show. Lisianski is also running out of his skin but has generally been competing in quite modest contests.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Pipadash
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Flak Jacket
ST. LEGER MEETING
Thursday 13th September
1:30 Ralph Raper Memorial Prince of Wales Cup Showcase Nursery
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[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> Wide open. Bollin Eric will be a popular
choice (highly regarded) and is worthy of close inspection -gets the
very tentative vote from this quarter. Nicely treated. In truth though,
any number could win this and among others Only Penang, Salute and
Shifty could go well.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Bollin Eric
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Only Penang
2:05 GNER White Rose Park Stakes (Group 3)
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[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> I was most impressed by the selection's turn
of foot at Goodwood last time in disposing of Munir over Goodwood's 7F.
As it was only well inside the final furlong that he reached the front
I'm convinced this unknown trip will be of benefit. Distant Music (has
had plenty of chances) and is only respected because of the form
yesterday of the Hill's stable. Tamburlaine has not reached the heights
expected and is another "excuse horse". With the form of China
Visit too "dark" the obvious danger is the tough and
consistent Umistim who is an admirable character having a good time.
This one will expose any chinks and if your looking for a safer bet then
this is the one. Opposing Riberac is not easy either with this one
finding vast improvement recently.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Fath
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
2:35 Rothmans Royals May Hill Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
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[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> Lady High Havens with G2 and G3 form (the
effort behind Silent Honour stands out like a beacon) is the clear form
choice here. However, I'll go with the potential of Newmarket maiden
winner Half Glance judged on her impressive disposal of Snowfire
(endorsed the form on Monday). Liable to come on significantly her
potential is unknown. Henry Cecil has also farmed this race over the
years - a significant pointer that she is likely to be up to the task.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Half Glance
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Lady High Havens
3:10 GNER Doncaster Cup (Group 3)
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> In a race Mark Johnston has traditionally
done well in, I don't propose to look beyond the selection who looks
well up to the standard of his previous winners. His Goodwood Cup effort
behind Persian Punch gives him a good a chance as any (closely matched
with Jardine's Lookout on subsequent formlines) and he has had a nice
break since. Still going the right way he can find more improvement than
that opponent. Cover Up running so well in handicaps is another having a
good year - stepping up in grade he may make a place if he can improve
again. Marathon trip suits this one.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Double Honour
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Cover Up
3:40 betabet Sceptre Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> Plenty here in this looking to
"nick" some black type. Most simply don't look up to the task.
Mauri Moon successful last time in listed class makes just about most
appeal although if the ground changes significantly this would increase
my doubts. Only needs to perform to the same level as at Goodwood to
prevail and this seems entirely possible with improvement often
forthcoming from similar Wragg inmates at this time of year. Aunty Rose
might go well after a break (has run well in this class previously) but
the one I'm keen on for the each way choice is Lil's Jessy. Back over a
more suitable trip and facing lesser opposition than the stiff tasks
faced recently her performance at Newmarket at the start of the season
would see her go close here at a price. Ease in the going would also
help this one.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Mauri Moon
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Lil's Jessy
4:10 Kyoto Scarbrough Stakes (Listed Race)
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> One of our horses to follow "Misty
Eyed" has a formidable turn of foot which can be deployed to effect
in this contest which is some way removed from the top sprinters she has
been taking on in recent starts. She can make hay. Another with a
similar profile is the admirable Tedburrow who often contests better
events than these - expect another bold show.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Misty Eyed
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Tedburrow
4:40 Doncaster Free Press Ladies Day H'cap
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN] --> While the in-form Forever Times must go
close again, the selection (who has some decent entries reflecting the
regard in which held) has had a nice break after disappointing last
time. Can be excused that effort under apprentice and Dettori should be
able to get a different tune out of this one this time. Has had a nice
break after the early successes in short timescale in July. Remainder
(many disappointing types) make this not a particularly strong contest
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Sauce Tartar
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Pays D'Amour
ST. LEGER MEETING
Wednesday 12th September
1:30 McKeever St. Lawrence Conditions Stakes
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Flat Spin
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
2:05 European Breeders Fund Carrie Red Fillies' Nursery Stakes (H'Cap)
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Red Opal
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Forest Prize
2:35 Tote Trifecta Portland Showcase H'Cap
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Salviati
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Night Flight
3:10 £200000 St Leger Yearling Stakes
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Broken Barricades
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Ho Choi
3:40 Rothmans Royals Park Hill Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares)
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Masilia
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
4:10 Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Maiden Stakes
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[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> In Disguise
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
4:40 Queen's Own Yorkshire Dragoons Classified Stakes
[±±±±±±±THE FURLONG POLE±±±±±±±]
[THE FLATMAN] -->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Celtic Island
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
GLORIOUS
GOODWOOD -
The Flatman previews the meeting
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
SATURDAY 4 AUGUST
2.15 Vodafone Nursery Stakes (Handicap) (2yolds) 7F £15,000
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]--> A high draw will be important here and of those with that advantage the selection who is usually prominent in his races can prove difficult to catch around here, He has quite a progressive profile and ran respectably at Newbury last time in a decent maiden. Of the others, Racing Bailey's may pose a threat but looks to have plenty of weight on what he has achieved. Treetops Hotel must have chances but has found trouble in the past - the same could happen here. So, the consistent Fairy Monarch who should be suited by the track based on his experiences at Epsom, may give the selection most to do. Hoax does not appeal through a combination of his draw and handicap mark.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Mananan McLir
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Fairy Monarch
2.45 Vodafone Thoroughbred Stakes (Listed) (3yold) 8F £25,000
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]--> A small field but a tricky heat nonetheless. Proceed With Care must have disappointed Mark Johnston based on his confident words before his run (finished 10th) in the Tote International Handicap at Ascot last weekend. The easier surface may see him able to put in a better effort here as at Newmarket in April. Even so, there appears to be little between him and Cauvery. Reef Diver could not have been expected to beat Dandoun at Kempton last time but turned in a splendid effort in finishing third - I am a little concerned about how this one's inexperience may affect his performance around here. No such problems for Wannabe Around who has won over the course and nearly overcame a difficult draw in chasing home Riberac on Thursday. Providing he is over those exertions, I expect him to prove very difficult to peg back again if he can put in such a high level of performance. Perhaps, Rosi's Boy who ran so well in Group company in France last time may give him most to do.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Wannabe Around
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Rosi's Boy
3.20 Vodafone Nassau Stakes (Group 1) (Class A) 10F £135,000
[Runner[s] from our Flatman's Horse to Follow feature] --> Time Away
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]--> An unoriginal selection but difficult to see any of the selection's opponents being able to match her turn of foot which has been displayed to such effect in recent races. She obviously holds her fellow three year olds on Irish Oaks form and perhaps Danceabout who is upped in trip (may be beneficial/bring about improvement) may get closest to her.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Lailani
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
3.50 Vodafone Stewards Cup (Showcase Handicap) 6F £85,000
[Runner[s] from our Future winners feature] --> Smart Predator
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]--> In cutting the field down to manageable proportions I give leading chances to Brevity (unoriginally), Seven No Trumps, Undeterred and Smart Predator. There would appear to be simply little sense, no matter which way you look at it in opposing Brevity based on the continuing ease of his current victories and his relative handicap mark here. The only thing I can suggest for those inclined to do so is that he will not get the very fast ground he has been winning on today although good ground should be adequate for him to perform. The other factor to use against him is that the size of the field and the effect of the draw might mitigate against him. Undeterred also in good nick has a similar reservations against him but he also cannot be left out of calculations. Smart Predator who has done us a couple of favours this year is better at 5F but this is not the stiffest course and he will certainly stretch them - it would not be the biggest shock to see this rather in and out performer cause a surprise by probably making all. However, I selected Seven No Trumps for the Wokingham and will remain loyal here - he ran a fine race there and was travelling sweetly inside the final furlong - this easier 6F might help him. He was ridden differently last time and must be forgiven.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Seven No Trumps
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Smart Predator
4.25 Turf Club Rated Stakes (Handicap) (3yold) 14F £15,000
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]-->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Karpasiana
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
5.00 Richard Baerlein Stakes (Handicap) (Class C) (3 y old) 5F £10,000
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]-->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Bali Royal
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
5.35 European Breeders Fund Racegoers Club Classified Stakes Class B
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN!!]-->
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Granny's Pet
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Lagudin
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
Friday 3rd August
2:15 Daily Telegraph Discover Racing Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Quite a difficult contest with many who are fancied badly drawn. The exception is Raheibb who turns out under his penalty after a cosy win last time - looks to have further improvement in him and is real 7F specialist. I suspect that Polar Kingdom will give him most to do (should be suited by this trip) and looks the type to improve with further racing. He's the threat.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Raheibb
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Polar Kingdom
2:45 melcollier.com Stakes Showcase Handicap
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Masterful is clearly thriving and must have good prospects of following up his Ascot victory on Sunday under his penalty. Muthaaber (stable companion) is no back number an ran with credit in the Britannia and an all aged handicap at Newbury running as if the step up in trip will suit. This factor gives him the edge over the other main danger Askham who was unlucky and faced a difficult task (if not impossible) behind Alphaeus last time.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Muthaaber
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
3:20 Theo Fennell Lennox Stakes (Group 3)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> The form of Tamburlaine, I suggest, is the key to this contest as a reproduction of his 2,000 Guineas performance behind Golan would surely be good enough here. But, he has been below that form twice since (blamed on the sticky ground and a virus) and it remains to be seen what form he will now be capable of here. On balance, with the ground again likely to be on the soft side of good, if his trainer's comments are to be believed he will be worth opposing on such a surface especially after an absence. As Munir is one of the few guaranteed to enjoy the softening of the ground, he gets the vote on the basis of his smart Greenham form on this ground and his respectable efforts in the English Guineas and the Jersey stakes despite his Group penalty. Mull of Kintyre who ran the smart King Charlemagne so close last time is gradually coming back to his best after two injuries and is the danger - unknown quantity on the ground though.
[N?.1 CHOICE] -->Munir
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> The Craven form represented by King's Ironbridge looks pretty modest in view of subsequent events.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
3:50 Lady O Memorial Glorious Rated Stakes Handicap (Listed Race)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> An odd sort of handicap with so many runners dropping down to this level after competing in Listed/Group (including G1) events with no particular merit. Paul Cole seems keen to win it with three entries and Maniatis looks sure to give a good account. The trouble with this free running sort is that he and Bogus Dreams are likely to battle it out throughout up front with may not be beneficial to either. Delius looks interesting based on his close up performance of level weights behind Sakhee but I'' not entirely convinced that didn't flatter him. Flossy is a pretty smart handicapper on her day in soft conditions and is the selection from Hannibal Lad (consistent and in good nick but generally in a much lower grade) as she has been competing well in good class events outside of handicaps and this looks a much easier task. She looks nicely weighted here.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Flossy
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> The selection likes a good gallop which should prevail here. A slight negative is that she may prefer a galloping track (but she has won around Chester) so I'm hopeful.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Hannibal Lad
4:25 Findon Nursery Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> This looks an easier task than Woodlark instead of taking on the likes of Approval and Naheef. Can make the most of the weight concession in his first handicap especially from the likes of the useful Magic Trick who included the useful Redback among his victims on soft ground at the start of the season. A return to that level of performance will see that one go close.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Woodlark
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->Magic Trick
5:00 European Breeders Fund Trundle Maiden Stakes
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Sweet Band did enough for me at Newmarket behind Dubai Destination to take this in a race likely to be run under similar conditions.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Sweet Band
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Golden Spectrum
5:35 Stewards' Sprint Handicap
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> As with the sprint earlier this week, I'm going to stick with the main man in such affairs - Dandy Nicholls. Conditions seem to have gone against Zuhair so he is passed over in favour of Flak Jacket who was 4th to him in that contest on Wednesday but who is probably better over 6F and acts with ease in the ground.
[N?.1 CHOICE] --> Flak Jacket
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> In the softer ground the selection may not have the best of the draw.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> American Cousin
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
Thursday 2nd August
2:15 Oak Tree Stakes (Listed Race)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Palace Affair, Independence, Sheppard's Watch and Al Ihsas catch my eye in an interesting opener. I'm not convinced Sheppard's Watch, as smart as she is will be as effective over this easy 7F judged on her winning efforts over a mile. No such problems for Palace Affair who has won at 6F but the fast ground might just catch this one out. Independence is very much going the right way and I remember her opening run this year when she showed tremendous pace although running to free. Now that she has learnt to settle, she is very capable of winning this with the smart change of pace she possesses - and is clearly progressing in leaps and bounds. Despite her chances, I'll give another chance to Al Ilhas to redeem her lofty home reputation after flopping at Royal Ascot in the Jersey Stakes (no reason forthcoming) where I selected her. This is relatively much easier and I hope to see the horse who won so impressively here and at Leicester before Ascot on show today.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Al Ihsas
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
2:45 cantorsport.co.uk Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> I was most impressed by Irony's pure speed at Ascot and as he was one of the few to win on the far side his performance may be worth a few pounds extra. There have been winners from those who finished behind him since at Ascot. Certainly, this race looks ready made for him and the fast track should hold no fears - perhaps the only danger might be that he is taken on from the start this time with the other jockeys trying to get him beat this way by unsettling him. This is possible with plenty of the others having shown early pace in their races - not least Whitbarrow who must be forgiven his flop last time (draw and got stirred up) - but I expect him to come through the test. Pieter Brueghel won a Newbury maiden very easily last time (5 lengths) and could be open to considerable improvement. Any weakness in Irony's performance could be exploited by him as he is likely to follow the pace and pounce late.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Irony
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Pieter Brueghel
3:20 JPMorgan Private Bank GLORIOUS GOODWOOD Cup (Group 2)
[??"THE FURLONG POLE!!"??]
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] -->Let's hope for another epic staying race like the thrilling Ascot Gold Cup. Unfortunately, with Persian Punch unlikely to go so well on this track he may not be part of any battle that entails. Despite his Group 1 penalty, Royal Rebel will not go down without one hell of a fight and it is only the fact that Solo Mio is quite so progressive (both I and the Rook gave him earlier this term when he won at 20-1 at Newmarket) that he is passed over. Allied to his courage and improvement this season he has a nice turn of foot for a stayer which may prove decisive under the prevailing quick conditions where staying qualities may be less of a consideration on the day. Double Honour is as brave as they come - this is his stiffest test to date but ridden with a little more restraint than in the Queen's Vase (in the box seat the whole way) he may run into a place. His trainer often runs his useful three year old stayers in this contest so he obviously expects him to go well.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Solo Mio
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Double Honour
3:50 William Hill Mile Showcase Handicap
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR Horses to Follow/Future winners FEATURE] --> Highland Reel (both) and Digital (Future winners)
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> After selecting Atavus at the weekend, I'm a little loathe to desert him here especially before he has been reassessed. However, he looked a little fortunate to win at the weekend in any case with among others Tillerman not getting a clear run. I also thought he had a tough race - there throughout and hard pressed from two out all the way to the line. He is worth passing over although I'm sure he will make a bold bid again. I like the look of Britannia winner Analyser who has done little wrong this season and won only just touched off by Zucchero at Newbury last time in an all aged handicap. A reproduction of that effort should see him in with a big shout. Nicely drawn and not overburdened with weight. Of the others, Big Future troubles me (first class effort in the Hunt Cup at Ascot) but is 7F his best trip? Wannabe Around is useful but his low draw puts me off a little and may spoil his chance of winning, Parisien Star ran well here earlier in the week but that was a low grade affair for the track, while the admirable Thihn usually finds one or two that much better in a finish. Riberac is a horse I've been waiting for but over a stiffer mile than he will encounter today and is passed over. Persiano always goes well here but may have a shade too many pounds to carry to prevent Analyser from delivering the goods. Little Amin is having a good season and looks good for place claims. Highland Reel has been most disappointing since his opening effort in the Lincoln.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Analyser
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> Just a minor doubt that the selection might not appreciate the twists and turns of Goodwood - has hung previously.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Little Amin
4:25 European Breeders Fund New Ham Maiden Fillies' Stakes
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Little form to go on and 6 newcomers to evaluate. Paper Chase will be all the rage here and has to be considered on his narrow defeat at Newmarket. Red Opal has most experience which will help this one and was not disgraced behind Entrap at Kempton - is bred to be suited to this further step up in trip. However, the Dunlop charge gets the vote - a little unlucky on his debut at Kempton - he was not beaten far and can be expected to come on a good deal for that effort much as Tashawak did yesterday.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Kootenay
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Red Opal
5:00 Lavant Nursery Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Difficult contest to evaluate. Zeitlos turns out under a 6lb penalty for his narrow win over Lady Pekan. His first real form. That one advertised the form splendidly at Newbury and if Zeitlos can run anywhere near as well again he much have a major chance here. Plenty of others in with a shout but let's hope the selection can now show some further improvement and pop in at a decent price.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Zeitlos
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Northern Tara
5:35 Drawing Room Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Moderate contest to complete the day. Hard to find any real form to excite. Shirazi seems to be going the right way but won a pretty moderate affair last time. Has a difficult draw to overcome. Flying Trapeze really does stand out (3 wins already this season - Haydock, Bath and Redcar - including over this trip) and may have found the step up in trip against him last time. Worth another chance to atone from a respectable midfield draw.
[NØ.1 CHOICE] --> Flying Trapeze
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Shirazi
GLORIOUS GOODWOOD
Wednesday 1st August
2:15 Marriott Hotels GLORIOUS GOODWOOD Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Gracilis, Alrisha and Pride of India are the three to catch my eye in a moderate but closely matched handicap to open proceedings - does not appear to be much between any of these at the weights. Alrisha (was an entry for the Gold Cup) is held in high regard by her trainer and this trip may see a marked improvement in her form. Price of India probably exerted himself too much in the Ascot Stakes and blew up turning in before staying on again at the death - may go close if ridden with more restraint this time. But it seems sensible to side with the improving Gracilis (on a five timer) who is clearly in the form of his life and who may have more to give based on the relative ease of his recent victories.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Gracilis
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> I just hope Kieran Fallon does not give the selection too much to do here as this is an extreme trip and it may not be easy to deliver a late challenge when exhaustion may be setting in.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Pride of India
2:45 Champagne Lanson Vintage Stakes (Group 3)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Just the one horse (Rafferty) here without a win to his name - so this looks a good quality renewal. Redback (tough and consistent) sets the standard and is sure to give a good run for your money. Some potentially very smart opponents here though take him on - all eyes will be on Leo's Luckyman - while Loweswater, Mr Sandancer, Naheef and Bragadino all have plenty of scope for improvement on their already smart form. Sometimes it pays to go with the gut reaction about a horse and Leo's Luckyman was an instant hit with me and many that saw him win at Ayr. While this will be a very different experience and severe test I suggest he will come through with flying colours if he is anywhere near the horse he is spoken of and looked like at Ayr. Bragadino did not beat much at Sandown but looked nonetheless capable of showing much more - perhaps he could land a surprise.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Leo's Luckyman
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Redback
3:20 Champagne Lanson Sussex Stakes (Group 1)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Ascot's St James's Palace stakes is the race to watch on the video here with most of the principals engaged in that contest won by Black Minnaloushe. Close inspection shows just how unlucky No Excuse Needed was and there must be a strong suspicion that he would have won with a clear passage. On the basis, that he is entitled to come on for the run more than any of the others in that race he looks to have a first rate chance here. Bach seemed to
excel last time and may be difficult to reel in but the other jockeys may just have underestimated him last time - that won't happen here.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> No Excuse Needed
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> One has to hope that the selection will receive a trouble free run here which his come from behind style requires.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] -->
3:50 Tote Gold Trophy Showcase Handicap
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> A hot contest here. Not easy to discount that many. I admired Tomasino's effort behind Beekeeper at Ascot and he is sure to go well again. He is most consistent. Regatta Point (fine recent efforts), Ovambo (on a roll), and Halcyon Daze (looks able to step up further) all hold respectable chances. The vote, however, goes to Elsaamri who despite only winning a maiden and a relative minor event looks an impressive individual who is going places. He is held in high regard by his connections and Goodwood is a venue where his stable traditionally does well.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Elsaamri
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Tomasino
4:25 Weatherbys Bank Fillies' Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "Future Winners" FEATURE] --> Early Morning Mist
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Quite a disappointing bunch overall (including Early Morning Mist on her most recent starts). My feeling is this rests between Encore Du Cristal, Denise Margaret and Moon Goddess. All seem to be open to further improvement, personally the Gosden filly impressed me the most last time and she and Denise Margaret who ran very respectably in the John Smith's Cup may have a protracted battle for the lead here. All this may set up the race for Moon Goddess who will appreciate this step up in distance and is clearly on the upgrade. Not much in it I suspect but Encore Du Cristal is taken to fend off all challengers.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Encore Du Cristal
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Moon Goddess
5:00 Lanson Lady of The Month Award Maiden Fillies' Stakes
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> As we explained yesterday, experience counts for a great deal over a difficult track like Goodwood. For that reason despite Princess Miletrian and Miss Crisette making some appeal on breeding alone, one has to concentrate on Island Mint and Tashawak as having the most obvious chances. Island Mint ran "ok" behind Kulachi (Listed event) but I cannot help feeling the Dunlop filly might benefit most from his debut experience and land this.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Tashawak
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Princess Miletrian
5:35 Charlton Stakes (Handicap)
[RUNNER [S] FROM OUR "#########" FEATURE] -->
[FOLLOW THE FLATMAN !!] --> Tricky - the Nicholls pair Zuhair and Flak Jacket make some appeal along with Absolute Fantasy who is running consistently well. I just suspect Zuhair may have the edge here as he appears to be approaching his peak after a long time out of touch (3 successive placed efforts support this notion) and he is sure to be ready for this. Flak Jacket may appreciate a stiffer test while Absolute Fantasy is not the easiest of rides and this track may not entirely suit (despite his victory earlier this season) - may find trouble.
[NO.1 CHOICE] --> Zuhair
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] --> The handicapper looks to have most of these in his pocket and a blanket may cover most of this field - so not a race to invest heavily in.
[E/W ALTERNATIVE] --> Absolute Fantasy
GOODWOOD
Tuesday 31 July 2001
2.15 Bet Direct Summer Stakes (Showcase Handicap) Class B 10F £50,000
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> A fairly modest handicap for the money on offer to start proceedings. Nothing makes great appeal in a race complicated by many needing to be held up. Although difficult to win with, Parisien Star just about makes most appeal here (tough assignments last two starts but ran with credit) and this looks far easier. He is nicely drawn and has won on the track. Perhaps, Entity may give him most to do - this one is in great heart and is likely to be at the head of affairs which in this particular race might be a considerable advantage. But he is not one to put the mortgage on and he might just set the race up for a fast finisher. One who falls into that category is Pantar - again difficult to win with but running well this term.
[#1st Choice] --> Parisien Star
[Positives/Negatives?] --> Torrid Kentavr may well start favourite here but might well be caught out over this sharp 10F - his winning form is over further.
[e/w alternative]--> Pantar
2.45 Gerrard Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Class A) 2y olds 6F £75,000
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Prince Dayjur seems the obvious form pick judged on his third to Meshaheer in the July Stakes. But he may be vulnerable to a horse such as Esenin who made such a pleasing winning debut at Newmarket albeit in a minor contest. This colt did display a formidable turn of foot on that occasion and that could be the decisive factor here providing inexperience can be overcome. The Callaghan yard is in good nick. Trilogy must also come into the argument (very impressive maiden winner last time) and has a bit more experience than the selection - he is only just passed over.
[#1st Choice] --> Esenin
[Positives/Negatives?] -->
[e/w alternative]-->
3.20 Peugeot Gordon Stakes (Group 3) 3yo 12F £50,000
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Fascinating contest - not least because of the return of last year’s star Nayef. But I doubt he will be ready. This also features Wareed (one of the few Godolphin runners at the meeting), Alexius (who could be anything), the tough Snowstorm, the talented Sydenham and another horse who could improve bundles in Saddler’s Creek. Having said this, the form horse is Perfect Sunday judged on his splendid second in France (Group 1) and respectable effort in the Epsom Derby. A number of imponderables and really a race to watch but he gets the narrow vote despite his Group penalty as I suspect on this fast track he will prove difficult to reel in.
[#1st Choice] --> Perfect Sunday
[Positives/Negatives?] -->
[e/w alternative]--> Sydenham
3.50 Ladbrokes UK Prestige Stakes (Handicap) (Class B) 14F £50,000
[Runner[s] from our Horses to Follow feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Quite a competitive affair with many showing good form last time out (not least Mana Argent, Zibeline, Virgin Soldier and Moonjaz). But I think the Royal Ascot form of Gallery God and First Ballot is the lines to concentrate on here. For me, Gallery God ran a blinder at the Royal meeting behind Takamaka Bay from an appalling draw. He is effective at this trip and may just have too much pace for the admirably consistent First Ballot who usually finds one or two that bit stronger in a finish. As he is likely to be taken on again here (Mana D'Argent for example) the same could happen here.
[#1st Choice] --> Gallery God
[Positives/Negatives?] -->
[e/w alternative]--> First Ballot
4.25 King George Stakes (Group 3) (Class A) 5F £50,000
[Runner[s] from our Horses to Follow (Flatman) feature] --> Superstar Leo
[the flatman]--> Tough sprint to call - some old favourites on hand. Superstar Leo and Romantic Myth have been disappointing this year but are worth another chance to prove themselves for those inclined to do so. I am inclined to favour Bishops Court based on his Epsom win on Derby Day which showed he is no back number and that he has speed to burn. On a similar track, distance and surface, this race looks sure to be run to suit he come from behind style. Dietrich was a little unlucky at Ascot and is worth watching closely here with an eye on the future.
[#1st Choice] --> Bishops Court
[Positives/Negatives?] --> The selection is a bit of an in and out performer and you can never be sure he will produce the goods.
[e/w alternative]-->Rudi’s Pet
5.00 New Paddock Stakes (Handicap) (Class D) 8F £15,000
[Runner[s] from our Future Winners feature] --> Soft Breeze
[the flatman]--> A largely moderate bunch and the few to concentrate on are Soft Breeze (will appreciate the trip), Sauce Tartar (in great heart), Faithful Warrior (potential improver), Kelburne (running out of his skin) and Naviasky (often runs well here). I think the Hill’s horse has more potential than most of these and may only have to produce a similar performance to last time at Sandown to land the spoils (held up and finishing to good effect) in a race likely to be run in similar fashion thanks to Sauce Tartar going for home early in the straight.
[#1st Choice] --> Faithful Warrior
[Positives/Negatives?] --> Faithful Warrior has a difficult draw to overcome. This is a big negative around here in large fields.
[e/w alternative]--> Naviasky
5.35 Evening Standard Maiden Stakes (Class D) (2yolds) 6F £ 15,000
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Just 4 with some racing experience and that may be the decisive factor on a track as quick as this one. Those needing time to acclimatise just won’t get it here. Road to Justice and Serieux stand out and both made pleasing introductions and there appears to be little between them on form. Serieux seemed to be given a particularly considerate ride at Doncaster but still only went down by under a length to Loweswater. He gets the nod over Road to Justice who may have been a little flattered to get so close to Dark Sorcerer at York.
[#1st Choice] --> Serieux
]Positives/Negatives?] --> Only lack of experience on this track prevents me from choosing the well/speedily bred grey colt Broken Barricades (also from the Hills camp) over the selection here.
[e/w alternative]--> Broken Barricades
THE KING GEORGE MEETING -
The Flatman previews the meeting
KING GEORGE MEETING [ASCOT]
Saturday 28th July
2.00 Harry Oppenheimer Diamond Rated Stakes (Class B Handicap) 1m 2f Penalty ?15013.29 3yo plus
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Difficult handicap with 4 of the runners appearing to show their best form last time out - Culzean, Nadour Al Bahr, Ice and Down to the Woods falling into this category the latter being unlucky in running too in running well in an Ascot Listed contest. But these are infrequent winners, and I would prefer to be on Bogus Dreams who looks more straightforward and can be expected to repeat his make all tactics twice successful so far. Prize Winner is the most unexposed of these (no run last time) and could be the surprise package - he is hardly thrown in at the weights though. Vintage Premium rarely wins - ground may be too quick for him.
[#1st Choice] --> Bogus Dreams
[Positives/Negatives?] --> Catchy Word in such good form earlier this term has run as if something amiss the last twice - worth avoiding until he shows more enthusiasm for the task.
[e/w alternative]--> Prize Winner
2.35 Princess Margaret Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) 6f Penalty ?24000 2yo only fillies
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> I was most impressed by Xtrasensory at Goodwood (the useful Massarra firmly put in her place) and also by Swiss Lake's impressive maiden win at Sandown. Both look potentially high class fillies in the making. With Richard Hannon reporting Xtrasensory having a setback (pulled muscles in her back) it is possible she might come on for the outing - the Lowther reportedly the main target. On that basis, Swiss Lake is taken to dispose of her on this occasion. The others look to have plenty of improving to do to make an impact.
[#1st Choice] --> Swiss Lake
[Positives/Negatives?] -->Leggy Lou did not do much wrong at Royal Ascot but may have been slightly flattered by the bare result as she raced on the favoured stands side.
[e/w alternative]-->
3.10 Tote International Stakes (Showcase Handicap) (Class B) 7f Penalty ?87000 3yo plus
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Tillerman, Nice One Clare, Proceed With Care, Jedyedd, True Night and Needwood Blade make most appeal to me. Atavus won the Bunbury Cup in such style that his hike up the weights may not be enough to stop him here. Still has only 8:4 to carry - a real racing weight. Should be at the head of affairs which may be an advantage in such a large field - trouble in running is inevitable in these races. Low draw looks beneficial.
[#1st Choice] --> Atavus
[Positives/Negatives?] --> Tillerman is very classy and took this in style last year (brilliant Kinane ride). Had plenty of luck in running though and will need the same again - looks worth opposing on that basis. Misraah looks a top class sprinter - this step up in trip may be the wrong move.
[e/w alternative]--> Jedyedd
3.50 King George Vi And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (Class A) (Group 1) 1m 4f Penalty ?435000 3yo plus
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our Horses to Follow feature] --> Galileo
[the flatman]-->Sure to be a thorough test throughout with pacemakers on hand in the early stages and the likes of Mutamam able to follow that and force the issue in the middle to later stages. I cannot see beyond the two principals (Galileo and Fantastic Light) and I expect an epic encounter. Logic tells me the weight for age concession will be too much for Fantastic Light to concede to such a good Derby winner who it should not be forgotten is still open to further improvement. But, Fantastic Light is battle hardened and his toughness in such races is guaranteed - he to has improved throughout this season. I think it will be close and Galileo only just gets the vote thanks to the weight for age concession. Millenary (will appreciate the way the race will be run) and Storming Home (seems to be going the right way) can go well too. Could a real staying contest with the leading contenders following too fast a pace enable Millenary to get into the picture by out staying the principals - well maybe but the odds are against it.
#1st Choice] --> Galileo
[Positives/Negatives?] --> Galileo should not be an odds on shot with such a tough opponent in Fantastic Light in opposition.
[e/w alternative]-->Storming Home
4.25 Mirror Of Portugal Diamond Handicap (Ladies Race) (Class C) 7f Penalty ?8716.50 3yo plus
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> My two against the field are Dress Rehearsal and Tornado Prince. The former, representing Sir Michael Stoute is no worldbeater (only modest form at Ripon and Windsor) but he has farmed this race over the past twenty years. His chances have to be respected - he has a draw to die for and a good jockey. His poor run last time may have been on account of the soft ground. Tornado Prince (sure to be tuned up) is principally opposed because of the fast conditions which although he can perform on he definitely prefers some give.
[#1st Choice] --> Dress Rehearsal
[Positives/Negatives?] -->The draw and jockeyship will be crucial here and for that reason stakes should be kept to a minimum here.
[e/w alternative]-->Janiceland
5.00 European Breeders Fund Crocker Bulteel Maiden Stakes (Class D) 6f Penalty ?6711.25 2yo only colts and geldings
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Group 1 entries for Shakran and Wing Commander (by Royal Applause who is excelling) make these worthy of close inspection. Inspection at the paddock is the key to this race, but without that advantage, the token selection goes to the well regarded Macaw for whom the words of support from Manton have been particularly strong.
[#1st Choice] --> Macaw
[Positives/Negatives?] -->
[e/w alternative]-->
5.35 Jwaneng Diamond Stakes (Handicap) (Class C) 1m 4f Penalty ?8927.75 3yo plus
[±±"THE FURLONG POLE!!"±±]
[Runner[s] from our "#########" feature] -->
[the flatman]--> Quite a modest handicap to complete the card. The selection's effort behind Ulundi is the form pick. Added to that, both in that race and previously he ran as if he would appreciate this step up in trip. If, that can bring about some improvement he would appear to have first class claims here. Mana D'Argent always runs a game race but usually finds a couple too good. Marrakech who is lightly raced may have some improvement in him (more than many of these) and may be able to sneak a place under 10-0.
[#1st Choice] --> Thundering Surf
[Positives/Negatives?] -->Establishment is likely to be quite short in the betting for a horse whose overall profile is modest if you take away his last Ascot victory.
[e/w alternative]--> Marrakech
THE JULY MEETING -
The Flatman previews each day of the meeting
Newmarket
Thursday 12th July
2.05 Weatherbys Superlative Stakes (Class A) (Listed Race) 4 runners 7F Penalty £12,995 2 Year Old only
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Imtiyaz
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
A poor turnout for the money on offer and an unoriginal selection from me. In disposing of Sparkling Water at Sandown (6 lengths), the selection showed he can handle the ground/distance and has a good deal of ability. He will be suited by this stiff 7F. Redback who has run creditably all year may make him pull out all the stops if this turns into a sprint. He does however lack the scope for improvement of the Loder colt.
2.35 Glyn Hopkin Handicap (Class C) 13 runners 8F Penalty £8,482 3Year Old only
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Smirk
" [e/w] Alternative" => Banjo Bay
I am unsure exactly why Smirk ran so poorly at York but he seemed to run too free (this often happens at the Knavesmire where horses get stirred up) and may also not have appreciated the firm ground. Today's easier surface may assist and a return to his Newmarket form on his penultimate start should be good enough here. Smirk is very well regarded by connections. Putra Pekan will appreciate this stiff mile but may have a few too many pounds on his back, Marika (a horse listed in our Future Winners section) can also go well but may find herself taken on for the lead here which may upset her. With Whale Beach disappointing, Satyr one paced, Haasil probably represents the biggest threat (stable quiet though) as she has been laid out for a race when the softer ground returned. She was quite I impressive at Ripon. I cannot get too excited by Spanish Spur who disappointed last time at Ascot for no obvious reason - may have enough weight to stop him. Banjo Bay (running well and in good heart) gets the each way vote.
3.05 Darley July Cup (Showcase Race) (Class A) (Group 1) 20 runners 6F Penalty £133,400
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Three Points
" [e/w] Alternative" => Cassandra Go
I feel that the horses with a low draw will be at a considerable disadvantage here as most of the principals are drawn high. I'm pretty sure the race will develop stands side and unless those drawn low can tack across they may see the race being resolved on their right hand side. Three Points did little wrong in the Cork and Orrery and holds many of these on that running. His ability to perform on an easier surface could see him reverse the decision with Harmonic Way. Cassandra Go has run out of her skin all year and I expect her to go close again. Shibboleth (supplemented) must also go well but has had plenty of racing in recent weeks. Pipalong can also go well but a place maybe the best she can hope for being drawn one if I am right about the draw. She could be an unlucky loser.
3.40 Ladbrokes Bunbury Cup (Handicap) (Class B) 20 runners 7F Penalty £32,500 3 Year Old plus
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Camberley
" [e/w] Alternative" => Judicious
Might be worth chancing that Camberley can return to his best on this easier surface (where he has shown his best form in the past) despite his two poor runs this year. 7F looks his trip. Judicious is also best at 7F in my view and if judged on his smart penultimate start must go close. Often finds trouble though which is likely here. Border Subject is also worthy of close inspection (considered a Group horse at home) but did run poorly last time. Salty Jack is readily opposed over this trip and in this company. Perhaps, the best longshot is Intricate Webb.
4.10 Bedford Lodge Hotel Maiden Stakes (Class D) 8 runners 10F Penalty £5,434 3 Year Old only
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Putra Sandhurst
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
The selection comes here after competing unsuccessfully in the Epsom Derby where he was fancied by many. Inexperience (got stirred up) was probably his greatest undoing there and he disappointed. A reproduction of the form on his only other start behind Perfect Sunday in the Lingfield Derby Trial sets a good form standard which will take some lowering by the newcomers here. Their late introduction to the racecourse suggests they have needed time and are not likely to be rushed by connections. Only Alexius has a G1 entry (St Leger) which probably indicates the connections expectations of this bunch. Take Putra Sandhurst (who has further G1 entries to his name later in the season) to put them firmly in their place.
4.45 Chippenham Lodge Stud Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class D) 11 runners 6F Penalty £5,577 2 Year Old fillies.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Morouj
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
Golden Sonata, Gossamer, Karamah and Morouj hold the G1 entries. Positive signals have been given about the homework of Morouj and little has been heard of the others in the field including the G1 entries. The market will guide and any money for the Noseda filly will be particularly significant. I cannot get too excited by those who have run, the best of which might be Jerpahni who may appreciate this tougher trip but I have to give the nod to Morouj.
Newmarket
Wednesday 11th July
2.05 Bahrain Trophy (Class A) (Listed Race) £25,000 added, 3 y old only, 1.6F £15,312
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Arrive
" [e/w] Alternative" => Bosham Mill
Ascot's Queen's Vase is probably the key to this contest. Bosham Mill ran a quite extraordinary race there (if you
haven't seen it watch the video) and one must conclude he is not entirely straightforward. When In Rome and Year Two Thousand did best of those in that contest and both can go well again but there may not be much between them. Shaandar so impressive at Newbury may appreciate this step up in trip but the stable is relatively quiet. Arrive has done very little wrong and looked very progressive at Salisbury last time, not hard pressed at all to land the spoils. In a difficult race to call, I 'll take a chance that Arrive can stay this extra 3F (not sure to on breeding) but has looked in his races as if it will not be a problem. He acts on the ground. Bosham Mill is well capable of a surprise and can quite easily turn Ascot form around.
2.35 TNT July Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) £40,000 added, 2 year old colt and geldings, 6F £23,200
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Funfair Wane
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
Looks a match between the selection and Meshaheer. While it is clearly folly to oppose David Loder juveniles, (I
didn't yesterday) the selection is clearly no mug and will definitely handle the ground conditions. Meshaheer who was an unlucky loser of the Coventry Stakes will take some beating but has only raced on a fast surface so far. He is not worth taking a short price about in my opinion and I expect there to be little between the two at the death - at around 3-1+ Mick Channon's horse may be worth a small investment.
3.10 Bonusprint Stakes (Showcase Handicap) (Class B) £40,000 added, 3 year old only, 10F, 26,000
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Arabie
" [e/w] Alternative" => Pole Star
I was much taken by Arabie's effort at Ascot where two out (this trip) he was all over the winner until Beekeeper swept by. I think time will tell that was a creditable effort and that form stands out here. In the hope that he can prove effective on the easier service he is the confident selection to beat the principal danger Pole Star. But, I think this is all about Arabie's ability to show continued progression and handle the different conditions rather than worrying about the opposition unduly - I believe he will prevail.
3.40 Falmouth Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) £60,000 added, 3 year old plus fillies, 8F, £34,800
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Proudwings
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
This looks to rest between Danceabout (lightly raced and laid out for this), Dear Daughter (progressive and fine effort at Ascot but may appreciate further), Sheppard's Watch (progressive, good turn of foot and in great heart). With these opponents likely to attract significant interest in the betting market, I suggest there might be considerable value here about the German representative Proudwings who has form of an equal/better level than most of the participants in this contest and will appreciate the ease in ground conditions. A consistent individual I suspect he has a greater change of pace than that of the principal danger Danceabout who often comes late with a long steady run. Here's hoping.
4.15 E.B.F Swaythling Memorial Novice Stakes (Class D), £10,000 added, 2 year old only, 6F, £6776
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Daily Sport
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
All eyes will be on the Loder representative here (Auriferous) taking into account the stables outstanding juvenile record so far this season and probably Esenin representing Michael Tabor (money for this one will obviously be significant). I'm prepared to overlook these with Daily Sport who when thrown into the deep end at Ascot showed he was a good swimmer! (5 of 24 to Irony) shaping with plenty of promise. This sets a reasonable form standard (and is slightly better than that offered by Million Percent and Loweswater who may need further than 6F to show his best. Daily Sport may appreciate this 6F and can make experience pay.
4.45 Paul Malone 4oth Year Selling Stakes (Class E), £7,000 added, 2 year old only, 7F, £4,862
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Cop My Gator
" [e/w] Alternative" => Tioga Gold
In a poor seller, Honeypoint has at least won his only race at this level (only narrowly at Yarmouth however). Dispol Evita has similarly won two minor contests. You would hope the top stable of Brian Meehan (represented by Tioga Gold) would know the time of day in a contest like this and despite this one's modest form to date his chances are worthy of close inspection. A similar sort is Cap My Gator (Callaghan) who has been performing at an average level in a higher grade than this but as this won't take much winning he can take advantage of this drop in class.
5.20 Reg Day Memorial Handicap (Class B), £15,000 added, 3 year old plus, 16F, £10,270
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Turnpole
" [e/w] Alternative" => Yorkshire
The progressive Order is likely to be a warm order here and this improving individual would have every chance if he stays. This is likely to turn into a real test of stamina however (both the stiff track and the likely ground conditions by this stage should ensure this) and he may simply be outstayed at the end of the day. Turnpole is in great heart at the moment and is a very useful stayer when in his current frame of mind. He gets the vote over Yorkshire (does not race very often) but when he does he is invariably wound up - this race should be run just the way he likes it and his come from behind style may enable him to land the spoils if Turnpole falters.
Tuesday 10th July
2.05 Strutt & Parker Maiden Stakes (Class D) £8000 added, 2yo only, 7f, penalty £5486.00, 13 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Dubai Destination
" [e/w] Alternative" => Sweet Band
2.35 H & K Commissions (Bookmakers) Handicap (Class D) £12000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £8502.00, 20 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => So Tempting
" [e/w] Alternative" => Iron Mountain
3.05 Cherry Hinton Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) £50000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £29000.00, 7 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Silent Honor (Recommended)
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
3.40 Princess Of Wales's Pearl And Coutts Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) £60000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, penalty £34800.00, 9 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Zindabad
" [e/w] Alternative" =>
4.10 Racingpost.co.uk Fillies' Rated Stakes (Class B Handicap),£15000 added, 3yo only fillies, 7f, penalty £9071.20, 11 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Palatial
" [e/w] Alternative" => Ashlinn
4.45 Jane Of Newmarket Rated Stakes (Class B Showcase Handicap) £15000 added, 3yo only, 6f, penalty £9251.00, 13 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Polar Kingdom
" [e/w] Alternative" => Macaroon
5.15 Ngk Spark Plugs Soham Handicap (Class D) £10000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £6890.00, 15 runners.
"THE FLATMAN" =>
" [#1st] CHOICE " => Effervesce
" [e/w] Alternative" => Brave Burt
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