| |
 Analysis
& Selections by THE ROOK - Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs,
we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the
fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and
requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner
or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular
may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the
"ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is
the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are
the likeliest winners; (¹
NØ.1 CHOICE ),
as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; (²E/W
ALTERNATIVE ) .
Any runner from "One To Jump" our feature on horses who we think should be followed for the remainder of the 2001/2002 National Hunt season are shown before each race's
analysis /selections.
SANDOWN
Saturday 8th December
12:45 Mitsubishi Shogun H'cap Steeplechase £10000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f 110yds, penalty £6955, 8 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Open looking starter to "Tingle Creek day"... It's hard to run any of the eight runners out. There is certain to be plenty of pace, with Super Tactics, and Struggles Glory likely to take it out at a strong pace. This should in theory suit the other runners. Hurricane Lamp has been in good form of late, and a reproduction of recent efforts should see him go close, however Struggles Glory does possess a bit of class, and despite his long absence, [he hasn't run since his excellent third in the Racing Post Chase in February] he could be too good for his rivals here
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:--> Struggles Glory
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->The Land Agent
1:20 Doug Barrott Novices' H'cap Hurdle £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £7117.50, 8 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP", furlongtogo.co.uk' s national hunt
horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Idaho D'Ox (FR )
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Idaho D'Ox makes a swift reappearance after going lame when travelling smoothly at Plumpton on his last start. I thought he had eventual winner Mrs Duf in a lot of trouble when slowly up dramatically on the run to two out. If i'm correct he could be must better value than in initially apparent, and therefore he makes plenty of appeal in preference to likely favourite Marcus Maximus, who won cosily on his latest start at Kempton, and Joyeux Royal, who is a horse i've always liked, who will be a nice horse once he's strengthened up [he hasn't really been finishing his races, since coming from France with a big reputation]
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Idaho D'Ox (FR )
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Joyeux Royal (FR )
1:55 Extraman Trophy (Registered As The Henry VIII Novices' Steeplechase) (Gr. 2), £30000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, penalty £18000, 8 runners.
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP", furlongtogo.co.uk' s national hunt
horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Fondmort (FR ) , and Ei Ei
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Fondmort, Silence Reigns, Returning, and Hot Shots, are the likeliest winner of this interesting clash. Silence Reigns, will have his supporters after his recent win at Chepstow. It was a nice effort, however he did rather balloon his fences that day, and may need to be more fluent here. Returning hasn't done anything wrong this term, however she has rather capitalize on others horses misfortune to win four on the bounce, Both of these will surely go close, however will need further improvement [in my view] to beat Fondmort, who may have a little extra touch of class at his stage on their respective careers. He deserves to take this, if only to amend for his unfortunate slip at Cheltenham, when he was still travelling well upsides the eventual winner Seebald.
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Fondmort (FR )
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Hot Shots (FR )
2:30 Mitsubishi Shogun Tingle Creek Trophy Steeplechase (Showcase Race) (Gr. 1), £80000 added, 5yo plus, 2m, penalty £46400, 6 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->This is difficult to call, and far from the forgone conclusion that many have predicted. How the race will be run in fairly predictable; Edredon Bleu will attempt to make most, with the out of form Cenkos upside trying to match his stride for stride. whilst this one-sided battle commences; Flagship Uberalles, who goes for his third win in the race, Fadalko, Latalomne, and Desert Mountain will be attempt to play the role of the cat - waiting to pounce on the champion chaser in the final straight. The race really should begin in earnest from the railway fences, when no doubt the 'hold-up horses' will have finally begun to move into striking position ... what happens next isn't completely clear. Edredon Bleu for all his guts has twice failed to take this prize having won the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. Clearly, the gap between these races doesn't suit his horse that is at his best when he races are spaced out, and at evens he is plenty short enough... Can any of his rivals capitalize?.
Fadalko could if back to his best , but one needs a leap of faith to back him after a lacklustre run behind Best Mate at Exeter. Desert Mountain is underestimated here, but this bridle horse would need everything to go right .... and a little bit more to take this. Flagship Uberalles appears to be best fresh, and has already beaten Edredon Bleu to take this, and is sure to go close, however I wouldnt be surprised if Brian Ellison's faith in Latalomne isn't finally fulfilled here, Whilst holes can be picked in his form, there was plenty to like about the way he strode clear of his rivals at Cheltenham's Open Meting. The likely strong pace is going to play to the strengths of this son of Zilzal, and if he puts in a clean round of jumping I wouldnt be at all surprised if he shook up the principals. If you want to have a bet on this event then I'd take a chance on him, however this isn't really a betting race, and I'd keep bets to a minimum and enjoy the spectacle.
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Latalomne (USA)
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->
3:05 William Hill H'cap Hurdle (Listed Race), £55000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £31900, 11 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->First Ballot, who many have down as a lively outsider for the Champion Hurdle, will surely need to win this handicap hurdle off of 10-13 to have any chance in that event > he clearly is well handicapped having improved on the flat since an easy win at Kempton last term, and could be a difficult horse to peg back here however Martin Pie has a stranglehold on this event, and in Belle D'Anjou, and Image De Marque II, he has two horses more than capable of taking this prize. Neither has done anything wrong this term, so the choice if mount for A P Mc Coy was clearly difficult, therefore it has to be significant that he went with the remarkable Image De Marque II, who has improved out of all recognition recently, and is now somewhere near her promising best form when trained in France. A fifth win in the last five weeks is a distinct possibility. Rooster Booster's recent record in handicap events makes him worthy of eachway support
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:--> Image De Marque II (FR )
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Rooster Booster,
3:40 williamhillcasino.com H'cap Hurdle, £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 6f, penalty £7410, 14 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP", furlongtogo.co.uk' s national hunt
horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Morimont (FR ) , Montreal (FR ) and Oliver Cromwell
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->I think that we have a strong hand in the finale, and I'd be disapointed if one of the horses from our horses-to follow feature didn't take this, even with the likes of Wontcostalotbut, Ice Crystal, and Doublet, Oliver Cromwell hasn't run for 287 days, but was clearly improving leaps and bounds at the end of last term. He hasn't won on his reappearance though, and whilst he should get into the frame it may pay to watch him today, and side with Montreal, who may be better than the bare facts of his latest win at ascot suggest. He appeared to hit the front plenty soon enough for him, and may have won a little more cosily he'd been held up a little longer... hopefully he played late ... and decisively
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:--> Montreal (FR )
[²e/w alternative]:-:--> Oliver Cromwell
|
|
