- summer '98 box office predictions -
how did we all do?

Well, that long hot summer was neither long, hot or barely even a summer. Still, from a cold December day it seems idyllic.

Enough rambling, let's see how Empire, Premiere and I did in the annual guessing game that is "Pick The Blockbuster". Remember, Empire and I were guessing UK grosses, while Premiere were going for the US. So here are the final, real UK top 10 blockbusters with their respective grosses:

	Actual	Gross	Empire	Premiere (US)	Me
1	Dr Dolittle	19.7m	Godzilla (4)	Armageddon (3)	Saving Private Ryan (2)
2	Saving Private Ryan	17.3m	Lost In Space (8)	Godzilla (4)	Godzilla (4)
3	Armageddon	16.5m	The Avengers (20)	The Mask Of Zorro (n/a)	Lost In Space (8)
4	Godzilla	16.0m	The X-Files (11)	Saving Private Ryan (2)	Small Soldiers (16)
5	There's Something About Mary	14.3m	Saving Private Ryan (2)	Small Soldiers (16)	Armageddon (3)
6	Sliding Doors	12.3m	Lethal Weapon 4 (13)	The Truman Show (9)	6 Days, 7 Nights (17)
7	Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrells	11.1m	6 Days, 7 Nights (17)	Malan (12)	The Avengers (20)
8	Lost In Space	10.7m	Out Of Sight (n/a)	BASEketball (n/a)	Mulan (12)
9	The Truman Show	9.4m	Dr Dolittle (1)	Lethal Weapon 4 (13)	Lethal Weapon 4 (13)
10	The Wedding Singer	9.3m	Mercury Rising (26)	The Horse Whisperer (14)	The X-Files (11)

  The next...

  11. The X-Files 8.4m
  12. Mulan 8.1m
  13. Lethal Weapon 4 7.3m
  14. The Horse Whisperer 5.6m
  15. City Of Angels 5.1m
  16. Small Soldiers 5.0m
  17. 6 Days & 7 Nights 4.7m
  18. Grease 4.1m
  19. Barney's Great Adventure 2.3m
  20. The Avengers 2.2m

  26. Mercury Rising 1.1m

As you can see, no-one had the first clue really, though Premiere were probably closest overall (despite guessing the US box office). My only claim to smugness was in recognising Saving Private Ryan (also the no 2 film in the US). Godilla under-performed, Lost In Space even more so, and The Avengers was a total shocker, grossing less than the critic's choice, Barney's Great Adventure. Empire had this at number 3, which would have earned it around 16 million quid - instead it took barely over two.

But I reckon things turned out just fine. I orginally wrote "May the best film win", and by and large, that's what happened. Particularly good to see the excellent showings of Sliding Doors and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrells, both the product of first-time British writer/directors. The latter film had a budget of £1m and took eleven times that in this country alone - just shows what one talented bloke can do. Also good to know that most of the films that underperformed were, essentially, rubbish. You'd almost be foolish enough to believe that people were getting tired of the "Bigger Is Better" rule of sequel thumb...

Two other films that came from nowhere - and dominated the US box office - were Dr Dolittle and There's Something About Mary. Looking at the make-up of the top 10, only three films were what could easily be catergorised as blockbuster "Event" movies - Armageddon, Godzilla and Lost In Space. Instead we had four comedies (three romantic), a low budget actioner, a war film and whatever The Truman Show is - sci-fi? Combined with the shocking performance of some huge budget movies (The Avengers, Small Soldiers, and - ye Gods - Mercury Rising), surely this sends a clear message to the studios about what people want to see. Some have waxed lyrical about how the World Cup drew the young males away, yet that doesn't explain the similar outcome in the US, who have barely even heard of the World Cup...

So looking to next year, one movie should dominate the entire summer run. July 16th is the day - school's out, and Star Wars: The Phantom Meanace is released. If that doesn't break every box office record in the book during it's first week, I'd be amazed. But can it rival Titanic's long term performance? Tricky... for a comparison between the Big Boat movie and this summer's number 1, Dr Dolittle, the latter took 19.8m wile the former took a gobsmacking 69.0m. So far, Titanic is quite unique in recent box office history, and Star Wars will have to be a fairly remarkable film to touch it. We can all hope...

That June prediction in full...

So, here goes, my guesses as of 3/6/98, for the UK. Unlike Empire, I'm going up to October to include the UK unleashing of Small Soldiers, Mulan and Armageddon. Underpinning many of the guesses is a general feeling that the public is a degree more tired than usual of "event" films, after last years disasterous Batman & Robin and Speed 2. Indeed, the prospect of a Full Monty type surprise shouldn't be discounted, and should at least be hoped for. So, for once, may the best movies win.

1. Saving Private Ryan

World War II is now to Speilberg what Vietnam is to Oliver Stone, but this is getting some sensational advance buzz. Titanic showed that people want a little meat in their movies again, and are tired of ones that are just spectacle. Speilberg is a known master, and the ever-bankable Tom Hanks refreshing after a long absence.

2. Godzilla

Great trailer, even is advance word is poor. It worked for ID4, but won't generate the same grosses.

3. Small Soldiers

Potentially the most original of the family fare, mixing live action, Toy Story-style CGI and Tommy Lee Jones. People want something new... this is certainly more fresh than:

4. Lost In Space

Terrible advance word knocks back the potential of this seemingly can't-fail franchise. And speaking of advance word...

5. Armageddon

Cannes roared with laughter in all the wrong places in May - the film gets a US release in July, so not much time to fix it. Deep Impact made quite a bit of dosh, but was almost universally reviled for playing it too straight. Apparently, Armageddon does the same thing. Oops.

6. Six Days And Seven Nights

Never underestimate Harrison. Good, meaty scriptwriter should give Ford and America's second most famous lesbian, Anne Heche, something to chew on. As it were.

7. The Avengers

Something of a dark horse, this, with little advance word on its quality. Whatever word there is, however, ain't all that great, so it looks like yet another big budget, small expectation event.

8. Mulan

Disney animation, so nuff said. But the Chinese Army? Huh?

9. Lethal Weapon 4

Solid, unspectacular. The only bone fide sequel in the summer releases though - for that we can all be grateful.

10. The X-Files

Fanatical yet cult (ie.minority) following should give this some clout I guess.

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.All reviews / articles copyright Guy Rowland (1998)