The future of…

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The future of cars

August 2000

Today you can already buy a new car with video panels in the seat backs for games, TV and internet access. On board computers for engine management and trip information have been commonplace for years. Power socket and networking support the most demanding road warrior, while systems comprising positioning, traffic information, maps and navigation, make sure you can find your destination and get there by the least stressful route in the shortest time. Modern cars may contain hundreds of microprocessors, and dozens of electric motors, with electronic systems accounting for over 50% of the price. New engine management software can be downloaded as an extra to boost performance. Bulbs are rapidly being replaced by LEDs which have a much longer life. Braking and traction control systems are standard in many cars. Drivers are warned when they get close to car behind while parking, and prototypes are actually capable of doing all the parking automatically. Some top end cars can even automatically distance themselves from the car in front while driving, or follow the car in front, and stay in lane while on motorways. Collision avoidance systems also exist, but when an accident does happen, we may be shielded from harm by airbags in front and beside us. In terms of energy, we already see electric cars, gas or methanol powered cars, hybrid fuel-electric cars, and hydrogen fuel cells will soon be all the rage too. Even solar power can be used to top up batteries.

It might seem that as far as cars go, the future has already arrived. But advanced as they are, there is still some way to go. Many of the features listed above are so far only available on top end cars. As the costs fall, we will see them gradually become standard equipment in cheaper cars. So in the far future, we will take all the above for granted. But by then, the systems will have developed somewhat.

Road traffic navigation systems will be much more advanced. We will be able to tell our computer what time we want to arrive and it will be able to negotiate slots with the traffic management systems for the appropriate roads, to ensure we arrive there on time. With every car having automatic systems that communicate with those in other cars, it will be possible to more than double the capacity of the roads, alleviating the congestion that would otherwise result from the rapidly growing number of cars on the roads. Many traffic jams are caused by human driving characteristics. When someone sees the brake lights on the car in front, they often brake more than is strictly necessary and when this is done by a series of cars, the cumulative effect can cause a complete standstill. Sluggish response then delays recovery from the stoppage. Electronic systems can automatically lock the brakes and accelerators of a whole chain of cars together to make for a much smoother and faster journey. All cars would brake together, with only microseconds delay instead of hundreds of milliseconds. Drive by wire systems could make it almost impossible to cut dangerously in front of another driver by limiting the actions that can be initiated to those that are safe. It might be impossible to change lane unless there is a gap to move into. By ensuring that nearby cars are travelling at similar speeds, danger is reduced still further, even if a collision were to occur. We often hear that speed kills, but that is wrong. Actually speed differential kills. With these automatic driving systems in place, we will be able to get in a car and it will take us to our destination automatically and safely. Taking the human out of the system will increase safety enormously, while reducing the effects of congestion. We will have to get used to our cars being electronically locked at or below the local speed limit, which might vary according to conditions. Our car simply won't go any faster. The frustration this might cause initially might vanish when we discover it actually means we can know approximately what time we will arrive, even before we leave.

But it isn't just in terms of safety and ease that driving will change. As well as telling us which way to go, or taking us that way automatically, we will be able to get appropriate news and tourist information as we travel through an area, if we want it. Integration of the transport systems into the net will make it possible to say 'take me to the nearest chip shop', or 'find the nearest cinema showing such and such a film'. Communications systems built into the car will obviously keep us in touch as today, but we might also be able to message to cars around us. Whether being able to talk to the person in front or behind would add to or reduce road rage is debatable.

Tolling will sadly be a fact of life in the future, and our cars will include electronic tags that allow money to be debited automatically from our smart card or bank account.

Many sensors will be in the future car. Tyres can have sensors built in to monitor wear and alert when they need replaced. Similarly, pollution monitors in exhausts could ensure that emissions are kept low. Other sensors will link into safety systems such as air bags, some of which already allow for the weight of the passenger. Our cars might even respond to our emotions, picking up when we are stressed and helping us to calm down. Security system already exist that can track cars or disable them when stolen, and it might become the norm to have sophisticated identification systems built into cars which prevent unauthorised people from driving them, or take them direct to the nearest police station. Retina scans, voice prints, finger prints or several other biometrics could be used, probably in conjunction with an electronic access system.

Cars might look quite different in terms of their materials and coatings. Smart fabrics may be used inside the car for seats, keeping us comfortable. Polymer coatings that are effectively large screens may cover some of the bodywork, as well as being used for dashboard and seatback displays. Because of the danger of distracting other drivers, it is unlikely that we will see video or kaleidoscopic displays on the bodywork, though this would be feasible technologically. What is more likely is being able to change the colour of the car each day, or to use slowly changing patterns.

So our cars are changing quickly today, but there is still some scope for more exciting change. I for one can't wait.

See also the future of public transport (cars as public transport) and the future of travel