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Future of the city – geographnic

Jan 2001

Policy conflict

It seems that cities throughout Europe are currently being designed by schizophrenic planners. One side of their personalities is determined to make sure that the city becomes a thriving lively centre where people will congregate, shop, eat, be entertained, work or simply socialise. In pursuit of this aim, they ban out-of-town shopping centres that would take business away from the city centres. Their other side sees traffic problems caused by people wanting to do these things and stops at nothing to prevent people from driving into town in their evil cars. They antiphase traffic lights, make one way systems and bus lanes, reduce car parking and increase its prices. Although their policies created the traffic problem, they still blame the motorist. Soon they will levy tolls on people wanting to drive into town. It never seems to occur to them that these policies oppose each other.

The planners mutter about public transport but apart from inside cities themselves, there isn't anything suitable for most needs. Although the planners depend critically on efficient public transport, they are badly let down by its inadequacy. Buses are infrequent and slow, with unreliable schedules, so irregular that often one is packed with an empty one a hundred yards behind. A ten minute car journey can easily become a one hour bus journey including getting to the bus stop, and waiting for the bus. The bus route is rarely direct, but visits every possible nook and cranny on the way in pursuit of higher profits by reducing the number of buses to cover an area. The bus companies don't understand that making a more regular, more direct services would encourage far more customers to use them and they would make greater profits still.

The result is that if you live in the centre of the ideal city that would result from the planners' wildest dreams, you would be able to enjoy any pursuit you like in a thriving, bustling city centre. It would be devoid of traffic and fumes; a utopian pedestrian zone with everything you could possibly want just a stone's throw away. What the planners never notice is that their plans make life miserable for everyone who doesn't live within convenient walking distance of this utopia. Driving into town is a nightmare and public transport is a nightmare. They can't even stay out of town because the out-of-town centres have been banned. The majority of society is condemned to misery for an improvement in quality of life for the minority.

Town v cyberspace

And yet conventional wisdom has it that cyberspace will never catch on. People won't shop on the network because they like going to 'real shops'. I beg to differ. Cyberspace offers convenience and efficiency coupled with low prices and total choice. The city offers misery, inefficiency, high prices, low choice, and lugging heavy or bulky goods back home on a packed bus. I think many of us will pick convenience and cyberspace shopping will flourish. A similar argument goes for theatre. When digital and internet TV take off, I will not be limited to the one play at the one theatre in my local town, but will be able to read reviews of any play anywhere and sit in virtually, without the tall fat guy sitting in front. And I'll continue to socialise primarily with friends who live out of town. Going into the city is already an infrequent occurrence for myself and millions of others. It will become more so the more the schizophrenic planners try to force it otherwise, especially unless they sort out public transport.

Enough ranting. Let's assume for a while that we educate or replace these planners. No-one wants traffic problems and we would all welcome more pedestrian centres and fewer cars. Most of us would be very happy indeed to use public transport if we got it right. So what do we need?

Future bus service

We need very frequent buses, less distance from home to the bus stop. To reduce journey time, we need more direct routes and either very punctual arrivals or at least an easy way to find out when the next one will arrive. Satellite positioning systems are already used to provide the latter service, albeit it you still need to drive to the bus stop to find out when the bus is coming unless you have instant internet access. We also need an efficient and reliable distribution service to carry our shopping when it is inconvenient to carry it home.

Bus route architects could learn a lot from telecomms network. Star architectures are OK for trunks, but really not much use for to link centres of town to individual homes, hence we have bus stops that may be several minutes walk away, and meandering routes to cover every local street in an area. We could solve this problem with local access rings. A local bus or minibus would go round in circles all day carrying people between stops close to their homes and a single node connected to a star for the main part of the journey. It could eventually be unmanned. This local bus could pick up people from their home on request via a simple phone call or internet request, helping the old and the frail or simply helping people to stay dry when it's raining.

The bus from the node to destination would only stop at a few other major nodes, instead of at every street lamp. The local access ring service would effectively remove the need for the 'park' in the park and ride schemes for many people, while greatly reducing the number of stops on the route, speeding up the service. It also would mean services that connect much closer to home. With the vast improvement in convenience and journey time, far more people would use the service, which would improve bus company profits, while reducing car pollution and congestion and generally improving the local environment. People would be able to have a drink at the theatre without worrying about driving home. They wouldn't have to worry about their car being vandalised or stolen from a car park. There would be much less traffic and congestion, making it easier to drive in when necessary. Many people would be able to survive completely without cars. Everyone wins. I will still not go into town often, but at least when I do, it would be a much more pleasant trip.

Distribution

The distribution part of the solution will happen anyway. As people shop more from home, there will be a rapidly growing distribution infrastructure, with several deliveries to homes each day. Even if people normally shop in towns, they will often buy via the network, simply because it offers more choice and lower prices. Also, we will see many shops in cities receive substantial income from manufacturers for acting as sophisticated try-on outlets. They will offer new services such as laser body scanning, and allow people to shop around electronically and order direct from the manufacturer who will manufacture the clothes to the customer's exact measurements. The retailer will adapt or die. The delivery systems will rely on a high level of trust and knowledge of the customer. They will know when the customer is at home and will be able to arrange appropriate collection, storage and delivery for any product. As well as home, they may well deliver to people at their office. This will work well with the new telework centres that we can expect, where people telework not from home but from local offices richly equipped with IT.

Security and surveillance

Security in cities is improving as we see more video surveillance. Some complain that crime simply moves elsewhere, but as the networks spread to cover most towns, we can expect overall crime to fall. The same video networks allow better traffic control and better monitoring of crowds. Local authorities will have much more information about what works and what doesn't and will be able to adjust their planning accordingly. Of course, a price is paid in loss of privacy, but so far at least, it is accepted. When improved video cameras are linked to much smarter computers that can recognise everyone's faces and effectively catalogue our movements, associations and activities, there may be more objection. When this information is additionally linked in to all the other databases, a complete picture of our everyday lives can be assembled by government or commerce. This will be much less acceptable. Finally, given that this information can be stored for ever and could be used at some future date by a less benevolent authority it becomes even more frightening.

24 hour city

In the information economy, more work is information based and can more easily be networked. With better networks and lower global telecomms prices, it is easy and cheap to work from anywhere, for anywhere. However, the world is not flat and we have time zones. If a job requires contacting people elsewhere in the world, a time shift from the traditional 9 to 5 is often needed. Many new people in any city will now be working at any hour, as well as traditional night workers. This resident night working population is further increased by the increasing number of global travellers. The city truly doesn't sleep any more. As the number of people working night increases, so we see other services such as restaurants staying open too. While daytime may still be a peak time, activities run right round the clock.

Virtual city

Future cities will exist not only as physical places, but will also have a digital presence in cyberspace. The various businesses, social institutions, and tourist attractions will be accessible via the network. Plays and concerts may be relayed onto the network and extra 'attendance' fees collected. Local commerce will gain by making their services and goods available to a wider electronic market. The cyberspace overlay on the city may generate large numbers of visits and possibly substantial revenue. Sadly, the owners of attractions in many cities are unaware of their future value and sometimes sell of rights to electronic access for a small fraction of their eventual worth.