The future of gambling

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Ian Pearson, August 2005

The global online gambling market is already worth over $10Bn per year and is growing at over 20% every year. Presumably, the advantages are instantaneity, getting a quick thrill without the hassle of walking down to the betting shop, and anonymity, much as web porn has flourished because of people who don’t want to be seen buying porn magazines. Gambling sites often use graphics and gimmicks to recreate the appearance and excitement of real casinos. With immersive environments in future, users could be made to feel as if they were in a real casino. In fact, real-time footage of real casinos could be used as part of the virtual environment, either live or recorded. Virtual gamblers and attractive virtual companions could make such sites even more compelling, even if the user is the only one at the site. Although online betting shops can be linked directly to live footage of sporting events, what really surprises me is the success of virtual gambling, where people bet on the outcome of races between virtual horses that only exist in the computer. I guess it is no different really from playing with an electronic fruit machine.

Of course, with virtual world technology, imagination rules. Physical properties of materials are no barrier to the appearance of a virtual environment, where physics is optional, so entirely new sports and games could be invented for online gambling. In fact it is surprising just how little imagination has been used so far – why use virtual horses when you could bet on the outcome of alien v predator or other fictional entities? In cyberspace, there is also the opportunity to link people together to make it more of a social activity. Of course, this can be used to offer extra dimensions to real casinos as well as offer interactivity between gamblers online.

Micro-gambling seems to be making good progress too. New phone services are being linked to the lottery, spare pennies or air miles can be gambled for bigger winnings all over the place. And let’s face it, on-line purchasing can be pretty much a gamble. In spite of all eBay’s valiant efforts, and its many successes, there is still a big problem with forgeries. You might get a nice new Rolex for a few quid, but you might just get a fake. This uncertainty spoils what could be a superb market. So gambling is creeping in almost everywhere.

But not quite everywhere! Perhaps the most exciting part of gambling today might one day be eradicated. Think about having kids. Today, you take one of her ova and fertilise with one of his 200 million sperm. If you are lucky, you will get a good combination of their genes. If not, you end up with the worst brat on the street. Tomorrow, well, in 20 years anyway, you’ll be able to analyse both your genomes, pick the best possible combination of genes, fix any areas you still don’t like by adding in genes from other people, simulate the whole thing to make sure you like the result, and then push the button to create your perfect kid. No chance involved at all. If you did that today, every tabloid would run condemnatory headlines. But I’ll happily bet that by 2025, if you don’t give your child the best possible genetic start in life, you’ll be considered an irresponsible parent!