The future of…

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The future of globalisation

With today's technology, the world doesn't seem as big as it used to. Satellites and other spacecraft can circumvent the earth in a few hours, and telecomms allows people to chat regardless of their location. So while the world is physically and culturally diverse, we have become accustomed to a global overlay that links us all into a single community, at least in the developed world. Increasingly, things need to be regulated globally, such as environmental action, trade, radio spectrum, and air traffic control procedures. The economies of scale needed to bring costs of electronic goods down to acceptable levels also dictate that many electronic standards are regional or global, rather than national.

But even though this globalisation has a long way to go, many people already object to it, arguing that global business controls too many of the decisions, and sometimes doesn't treat people as well as it should. I have no axe to grind, but can see that a problem lies ahead. As we proceed, there will be more socio-economic effects for people to complain about, while at the same time it will be easier for people to co-ordinate their response. They will be able to do so much more effectively and with greater force since more people will be involved. And they will mostly be networked.

The problems are manyfold and complex, but one of the root causes is the fact that some institutions are geographically independent, whereas government is highly geographic. Governments can only regulate effectively within their own geographic boundaries. Outside of these boundaries, they can only ask nicely and hope that other governments will co-operate. Non-geographic institutions such as global businesses can exploit these differences in constraints by carrying out operations in less regulated areas and selling products and services in countries where they would otherwise be unable to operate. They may gain a significant advantage compared to locally based operators. Exploitation varies enormously. Some companies use child labour and pay very low wage rates in developing countries. Others set up parts of their operations in countries (e.g. UK) where workforces are easier to dismiss to give them greater flexibility. Others may adopt environmental practices in distant lands that would never be permitted if they were carried out in countries where they sell the end products. So the main cause for complaint seems to be that some global companies exploit variations in regulation and social conditions to engage in practices that increase their competitiveness compared to more responsible companies, thereby legally increasing profits while causing harm to people, economies or the environment. So many issues are included under this umbrella that is often hard to see the commonality between the various protesters in recent actions. In fact, such is the broad scope, that many people use globalisation protests as an opportunity to complain about anything, even if it has nothing to do with globalisation.

Some time in the distant Star Trek future, we will all agree globally on regulation and will have an effective world government that always acts sensibly. Not a chance. Not even in Star Trek timescales. At best, we will get some global agreement and co-operation on some issues and have a few more global regulatory bodies with a few more teeth than today.

But whether or not global businesses are a problem, and I agree that some are, they are not the only problem. Entire countries can behave irresponsibly. I have no official say in US elections so little influence over their policies, but have to put up with the disproportionate increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that they cause. In today's overpopulated technological world, effects are often global while decisions are mostly local. But I believe this will all change very soon. The net is bringing new hope.

Like the global institutions that don't answer to any single authority, the net is global. People of like mind can link to others of like mind anywhere on the planet. They become a power base, their economic muscle instantly capable of being co-ordinated in a single swift action. Companies may resist or circumvent local laws by physically acting outside that jurisdiction, but can't hide from a net based action. Governments may resist sanctions or trade wars threatened by other governments trying to pressurise them into behaving responsibly, but will find it harder to resist massive cyber-attacks on their network infrastructure and economy by a globally distributed opponent. Today, the net is hard to use, expensive to access, sluggish and inefficient, and not many of the world population have access to it. In a few years time, we will have most of the world's population on-line, using a highly efficient net, integrated into most of their every-day activities. Globalisation will include people at a grass roots level as well as the big companies and governments. We will then be able to make our views heard and acted on. This power could be hijacked by a few lunatic fringe pressure groups who may cause chaos, but we will hopefully find ways of dealing with that and if we survive at all, ultimately it could be a force for democracy.

But one big problem will remain. People may agree all over the world that we should look after the environment a little better than we do now, and may agree on some other big issues too. But on many issues, there will not be consensus. We can't even get global agreement on basic human rights. There is deep disagreement on many fronts. Today, many potential conflicts are only avoided by convenient geographic separation between the opposing cultures. Where we see opposing cultures share the same space in the physical world, we see frequent wars. It is easier to accept a different point of view when it is thousands of miles away. But in the networked, globalised world of tomorrow, we will all share the same pace with all other cultures. How well we learn to deal with it will determine our survival chances.