Copyright Ian Pearson, BT Futurologist

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The future of the high street

March 2002

The high street many years was quite different from today. Outlets on the high street change hands with alarming regularity, so we are well used to change. We don't always notice the difference between the cases where a clothes shop is replaced by another clothes shop, and where it is replaced by a cybercafe. The overall flavour of the high street evolves gradually, reflecting the gradual change in our everyday lives, and hence the marketplace. The main downward pressures on the high street today are from an almost universal deterrence to cars, yielding an increasing dominance of out-of-town and eventually internet shopping, as well as the march of telephone and internet banking and direct travel booking. In the future, we can expect even fewer banks, building societies, travel agents, furniture shops and white goods shops. The vacant properties are often filled by discount retailers, software and mobile phone shops, coffee bars and the occasional internet café. Discount retailers are a rapidly growing sector, and based on the USA, have quite some way to go in the UK.

The strong current presence of phone shops is more transient, reflecting the rapid growth of this market and the need for competitors to capture market share. This sector will mature quickly over the next few years, and we will see more generic IT and mobile appliance shops replacing the single-brand shops of today. We are about to witness an explosion of the range of gadgets available, most of which will not be tied to a particular network. Shops that stock a wide range without the constraints of a single network operator will have a strong advantage. If there are any brand-specific shops left in this sector, they are more likely to be run by the manufacturers than network operators. These shops are more to do with lifestyle and tribalism than the need for gadgets.

The other growth areas also reflect changing lifestyles. Young people have much more money to spend and the video games market is growing fast. As machines become ever more powerful and games continue to improve, this trend will continue.

The growth of coffee bars, internet cafes, and store restaurants reflects the growing need for the so-called third place. Household size continues to fall, and people increasingly live apart, while the scope for socialising at work is decreasing. Many people telework, and politically correct workplace regulation often makes socialising at work into a career risk. Consequently, there is a growing demand for places to meet and socialise other than the home or office. Growing disposable income thus enables a significant 'third place' market that is being captured by Starbucks, Sushi bars and restaurants, and we also see a generation of mall-rats who spend their days hanging around malls doing nothing in particular. We don't yet have many day clubs (apart for Age Concern drop-in centres), but we should expect them too in the near future.

Other articles on this site look in more detail at the future of shops, arguing that they too will largely evolve into try-on outlets, and act more as a themed leisure location than they do today, where shopping is just one activity.

In terms of infrastructure, the high street will change technologically, but almost invisibly. Phone boxes will evolve into mobile network hubs, and also may emit a positioning field, allowing triangulation down to centimetre accuracy. People will be able to find places and other people much more easily, and communicate with them using video or high speed messaging. Personality matching software in either the network or the mobile will be capable of finding other people with similar interests, acting as electronic ice-breaker in many situations. Cities have always been about crowds and networking. The high street of tomorrow facilitates this role even more.

So while some parts of today's high street will evaporate into history, the vacant lots will gladly be filled. The high street will increasingly become a place of socialising and lifestyle shopping. There is little sign of forthcoming urban decay or people deserting the high street.