Copyright Ian Pearson, BT Futurologist

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The future of mobile phones

Ian Pearson, BT Futurologist, Nov 2004

Today the mobile sector is associated with relatively high call charges. However, development of ad-hoc networking technology may result in free calls in a few years time. Essentially, devices will set up their own networks, just by linking to its nearest neighbours, in most cases via a very low power radio connection. If there is a sufficient density of such devices, then calls can be routed right across town on an ad-hoc network, hop by hop. With no network operator, there need be no call charge. Cybiko’s portable games machines already allow communication between their users on the fly, but ad-hoc nets have yet to be developed as a mainstream competitor to the mobile networks. Once phones include such technology as standard, they could automatically search for free networks that they can use, or try to set one up, and only use paid-for nets when there is no suitable alternative. Similarly, software radio will enable devices to access any available radio network. It assembles radio signals in the software domain on fast digital signal processing chips instead of using dedicated hardware locked to each radio system. This makes them very versatile, and opens up lots of opportunities to minimise call costs. Even before these technologies become routine, we will see phones that work across wireless LANs to get cheaper calls on the fixed network.

Directional messaging will let people send text messages just by pointing their phone at another person. This has obvious uses for flirting in clubs and pubs, enhancing the main current use for text messaging. Instant messaging is also coming to phones, having been around for many years on the net, but is not just for text, and includes new ‘push-to-talk’ services. These resemble walkie-talkie communications and lets people talk to others in a group with a single button push. Groups of teenage girls can chat all the time. This won’t even need a button in future. Star Trek communications such as ‘beam me up Scotty’ rely on the computer knowing who ‘Scotty’ is, and sends the voice sample to Scotty. ‘Scotty, beam me up’ would be even faster. The processing available on mobile phones will be easily up to the job, given that most people have few enough regular contacts whom they would wish to communicate with in this way.

Another socialisation enhancement that we might expect is the use of positioning to let us look at our phone display and see immediately whether any of our friends are nearby. It would certainly be useful when shopping on a Saturday morning, if you can tell at a glance if one of your friends is also in town. Services such as these could be developed further into full blown tracking services for children, but need careful design of privacy tools.

Today, ring tones are already a big market, and we are just seeing the beginning of downloading dial tones, but perhaps these will go all the way to ‘I’m driving, but will be stopping soon’ tones. There is certainly a market for phones that let the caller send ring tones, such as ‘Hello John’. Again, there is a strong need to build in precautions, and the recipient would need to authorise groups of people to use these, otherwise they could be exploited by advertising companies and quickly lead to a plague of junk and prank calls.

Phones are certainly getting smaller and lighter, and we will soon be able to print phones or other mobile devices directly onto thin plastic membrane, and stick it to our skin, just like a temporary tattoo that children use. This is just one of hundreds of uses of ‘active skin’. Others include printing circuitry directly onto and even into the skin, monitoring blood chemistry and nervous system activity. Imagine a phone printed on your wrist, with a full blown touch sensitive colour display that is not just a PDA and phone, but also a medical monitor, or a video tattoo, and may be as much body adornment as utility. Even smart makeup is being considered, that aligns particles in the makeup with an electric field just like in an LCD display. This will allow makeup to change all the way through the day according to location and context. It may be programmed using a digital bathroom mirror. Active skin will make it much easier to build security into mobile phones when they are used as electronic cash wallets, by adding direct biometric ID. Phones may also be built into jewellery in the near future.

Sadly, all this new functionality implies more computing in the mobiles, and this attracts the attention of virus writers and hackers. The first mobile phone virus has already been demonstrated, and it will not be long before viruses are a major problem.

As the storage capacity of mobiles rapidly increases, we will see less need to connect to the net to download MP3 tracks or access the net. A lot of the stuff we need will be actually on the phone itself, having been downloaded in advance by our home PC based on our diary.

Another change that will affect our uses of mobile technology is the advance in smart environments. Tiny chips will be everywhere, for storage, processing, sensing and communications. The so called ambient intelligence that results will provide us with all manner of IT services everywhere we go. We will soon use head-up displays, that give us Terminator style augmented reality overlays on the real world. We will see a highly personalised view of the world around us, with our own preferred architectures instead of having to see the real world. Ugly people in our field of view could be digitally enhanced into supermodel clones. A wide range of entertainment games will be developed that make good use of this overlay. And we will have more intuitive interfaces to let us control the devices around us.

And finally, our mobiles will act as active electronic diaries. Cameras and microphones, built into discreet badges or pendants, will automatically record key scenes and events during our day, and download them later onto our home storage.

Timeline – when can we expect these?

Since many of these technologies already exist in labs or in small scale use, I think the best dates to list are where they start to make a significant impact on the market. These are just my best guesses for these.

Ad-hoc nets, allowing free text messages calls between mobile users 2007

Ad-hoc nets, allowing free low quality voice calls between mobile users 2010

Software radio allows phones to access wide range of nets 2010

Directional messaging 2008

Instant voice messaging without using buttons (i.e. not push-to-talk) 2010

Phone displays that show where your friends are 2010

Caller-sent ring tones 2007

Phones printed on skin 2015

Skin-based remote electronic monitoring of blood chemistry 2015

Skin-based electronic links to nervous system 2018

Digital bathroom mirror to adjust cyber-appearance 2012

Smart electronic makeup 2015

Mobile phone viruses start becoming a problem 2005

Augmented reality overlays on head up displays 2012

Automatic audio-visual diary-keeping 2010