Copyright Ian Pearson, BT Futurologist

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Future power

May 1999

There is an increasing number of global institutions and companies, with much speculation that mega-corporations of the future could have more power than national governments. But the technology over the next few years not only moves the goal posts but changes the whole nature of the game. We can be certain that future socio-economic structure will be even more complex than today's.

For instance, it is very clear that the rapid growth of the internet will soon enable very large network based communities. Some will be communities of shared cultural identity, religion, political persuasion, business ethics, social values and so on. Many will be small and of little consequence but some will have huge memberships and consequently huge economic and political power. They may even have their own currencies. Bearing in mind that almost instantaneous communication is possible with the whole membership of a community, such a possibility should be taken seriously. People may belong to any number of such communities, in their respective roles. These network communities could thus be more significant than geographic communities. In business, we will see high growth of virtual companies, which can be completely global and very dynamic. These will link people and computers together regardless of location, and make money from all over the world. Network based information companies introduce new problems of taxation collection, especially since some will have no human employees at all. There will be pressure to introduce global taxation of some form. Since these companies will be increasingly de-coupled from geographic bases, there will also need to be an increase in global regulation for such companies.

By contrast, information technology is likely to lead to stronger local geographic communities. As part of internet spread, community networks are springing up everywhere, allowing people to participate more easily and fully in their local community. Equally importantly, as technology gradually automates much of the mechanistic and even intellectual side of human work, so it can be expected that people will refocus on the human side and community activity will grow in importance. People may begin to take their sense of identity from their place and relationships in the community, rather than their job. In such a world, the network is a tool to enhance local community life, and brings decision making capability to the most local level. Identity may become more tribal again. Another technology push in this direction is the rise of the local telework centre. As business becomes more virtual and often more global, people may have to change jobs frequently. They will not wish to move house frequently, so there is a strong need to telework. It is clear that most people do not want to work from home all the time as they need the social contact that comes with going to the office, and would get cabin fever if they are permanently stuck at home. Local offices filled with hot desks, equipped with future teleworking technology will act as local telework centres. People need walk a short distance to work, reducing pollution and congestion on roads. Also, they will be working with people who come from the same local area, again building the strength of the local community.

So there are two parallel trends. One is to a stronger local community, able to make and manage local decisions and involving the whole community. The other is to increased globalisation and to non-geographic communities and businesses. So is possible to envisage a world with strong global regulation that determines the rules for companies regardless of where they are based and operate, with a common global standard. This may also ensure common human rights, legal systems etc. This would ensure that people everywhere operate on the same basic rules. However, decisions that affect only local communities could be made locally much more efficiently and effectively. With a global regulatory environment and micro-local government, there could be little left to do for regional or national level institutions. We may see a strong polarisation of power.

But it will never be simple. Geographic and network based structures will also interact, corporately and socially, giving a multi-dimensional tribalism where people belong to many, often orthogonal but sometimes competing communities. Today's world is complex, but we ain't seen nothing yet.