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Future public transport

Feb 1999

Trains

I just read that train fairs are about to rise by another 25%, even though I can already cross the Atlantic by plane as cheaply as crossing the country by train. Trains are expensive for a variety of reasons. One of the main reasons is that track is expensive to lay and maintain, but is under-utilised. A long train typically goes by every several minutes, separated by enormous distance from other trains on the same track. Much of the 'quiet time' between trains cannot be used. In telecommunications terms, this hogging of an entire 'circuit' is called circuit switching, and is also very inefficient in its use of capacity, except for a few services, because of the long quiet periods between data. Packet witching on the other hand interleaves many short 'packets' of data on the same link, making much greater use of capacity.

Suppose we were to use packet switching principles for trains. Major changes in rail infrastructure can't be made overnight so let's imagine it is 2050. By then, positioning systems such as GPS, electronic commerce and biometric identification will be taken for granted.

First, you might just say you want to come to Ipswich. Your personal computer hears you and signals to the station computer. The local public transport companies arrange for one of their cars or buses to pick you up and take you to the station. When you arrive, a few other people in the station also want to head that way and you are all told to go to ring 23, pod 15. This particular one has just arrived from Glasgow. Each pod holds only 6 people and is about car sized. When you all get into the pod, it shuts the door and leaves. At the entrance was an iris scan unit that verified your identity and you have been electronically charged for the journey. It also ensured that you didn't have to share a pod with any known criminals - they have to travel alone and pay more. The local transport agency in Ipswich has also been notified of your arrival time and has already arranged for a bus to take you to your home this time. The pod has no driver but is driven by computer. It travels along quickly, just a few feet behind the pod in front. Each pod is routed individually, but they effectively form a train with the other pods for most of their journey to cut down on wind resistance. As you arrive at Ipswich, your pod is sidelined and stops, while the others continue their journeys. You get onto your bus and arrive home soon. If a bus hadn't been convenient, a taxi would have been ordered.

The station no longer uses the long straight platforms that were needed for the old trains. Instead, a ring based structure is used to allow pods to arrive from anywhere and to go anywhere - first in, first out. Their destination is only decided a few minutes before departure when the computer knows the demand. One leaves every few seconds.

In such a system, you would never have to wait more than a few minutes for a pod, since they are assigned on request. If no-one else wants to go your way within a few minutes the pod would leave with just you on board. The public transport at your destination would dovetail with the pod service. As a consequence, public transport is much more attractive so demand is much higher, so the rail network is more efficiently used, so the prices are lower, so it is more attractive…

Buses

Bus route architects could also learn a lot from telecomms network. Star architectures are OK for trunks, but really not much use for to link centres of town to individual homes, hence we have bus stops that may be several minutes walk away, and meandering routes to cover every local street in an area. We could solve this problem with local access rings. A local bus or minibus would go round in circles all day carrying people between stops close to their homes and a single node connected to a star for the main part of the journey. It could eventually be unmanned. This local bus could pick up people from their home on request via a simple phone call or internet request, helping the old and the frail or simply helping people to stay dry when it's raining.

The bus from the node to destination would only stop at a few other major nodes, instead of at every street lamp. The local access ring service would effectively remove the need for the 'park' in the park and ride schemes for many people, while greatly reducing the number of stops on the route, speeding up the service. It also would mean services that connect much closer to home. With the vast improvement in convenience and journey time, far more people would use the service, which would improve bus company profits, while reducing car pollution and congestion and generally improving the local environment.

Cars

Most people will still have cars though. Of course, your driver license in the future will be electronic - the car simply won't start if you don't have a license. You will be recognised by your iris and the car immobiliser will disengage only if you are authorised to drive that car at that time (it may be that you have to book a time slot for your journey). The government direct initiative will ensure that your driving records, including the date you passed a test, what accidents you have had, speeding offences etc are all accessible via a single point of contact, along with any other personal records such as your criminal record. With the ubiquitous surveillance that we can expect in the future, even more information about your usual driving habits may be stored too. The positioning system in your car would enable a continuous log to be made, recording your speed, acceleration, stops, reaction times (by correlating with those from other cars) and generally make a good picture of your general competence as a driver.

Now to the point: with all this information held about you, it will be possible to integrate you and your car into a public transport system. When you are heading somewhere, you may be asked to stop and pick someone up who is going in the same direction, thereby increasing the number of people per car and reducing traffic levels. As a reward, you may pay reduced tolls, get a guaranteed parking space, or may even make a small profit on the trip. The system would ensure people's safety by only using drivers with an excellent record (even more stringent record keeping may remove bad taxi drivers from the roads). Iris scan identification in the car would ensure that your journey and the car's occupants are fully vetted, so that there is no danger of being asked to pick up a criminal. When you are a passenger, you could be sure that the person picking you up is a safe driver with a sound history.

But of course, in the car of the future, the driver may be a computer. The passengers may just watch out of the window while it is driven automatically. This would allow cars to be driven much closer together at higher speeds with fewer accidents. Because it is all fully co-ordinated, you would know exactly what time to expect to arrive, or could leave at exactly the right time to arrive at a certain time.

There would be much less traffic and congestion, making it easier to drive in when necessary, with improved journey times for everyone. Many people would be able to survive completely without cars. Best of all, travel will become much less stressful. Everyone wins.

One old concept that may eventually become feasible is car-pooling. If cars are driven automatically, and there is much more sharing, there may be much more willingness to share the ownership of the cars too. The worry that someone else might drive the car like a lunatic at your maintenance expense would vanish. The running costs could be shared easily according to usage by using simple e-commerce tools, that would allow much bigger pools to be managed. By sharing many cars among many drivers, there is less chance of there not being one available when you need one, while greater utilisation would mean less parking space and road space are needed. Another trend makes it even more likely. Car manufacturers are already considering making fewer models but putting all the options in each one. They would be electronically activated on an electronic payment. A driver could buy higher performance, better information, navigation, or in-car entertainment as options for a particular journey. Features might therefore depend more on the person than on the car chosen. The pool computer could obviously ensure that the car allocated has the required features as options when the person arranges the trip.

More ideas on future transport, can be found in 'The future of travel' which also discusses planes.