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The future of … society Feb 1999

It is often remarked that society has become fragmented as a result of the impact of cars. They have enabled us to work and play with people over a much greater range, with telephones, efficient post and easy international travel helping too. As a result, many of us hardly know our neighbours, but have business and social contacts all over the country, even in other countries. People can find new friends via the Internet in discussion groups, games and multi-user domains (MUDs). As the Internet upgrades to the global superhighway, we will see geography becoming less and less important in our relationships and interactions. Computer generated virtual spaces will enable us to meet in virtual coffee bars, or conduct business meetings in a virtual environment populated by agents, transaction loggers, interpreters and secretaries, some of them maybe even human.

But Humans are still gregarious and still tribal. We will have an increasing choice of friends and be increasingly able to stay in high quality contact with our loved ones. The changes we will see will be simply substitution of our geographically based relationships by ones based on common interest, attractiveness or common values. These are the cybercommunities I mentioned last month. They may be at least as cohesive as any geographically based community. If there is increasing geographic fragmentation, it will be more than offset by stronger support networks on the net. People will have a higher quality of life, not a lower one. We will not see people withdraw and become isolated, with huge mental problems. The people who socialise on the Internet for hour after hour may be sneered at by many, but they are probably meeting as many friends as the most outgoing partygoer. Their affiliations may not be traditional, but they will be just as sound. The front door is not locked, but when we are tired or it’s raining, we can stay and still stay in touch. But perhaps the people who will gain most are the old and the frail, many of whom suffer terribly from loneliness in today’s society, their families living hundreds of miles away, often with few friends nearby. For some, their only human contact is the check out assistant in the local supermarket. These are the real casualties of the current fragmentation people complain of. But in ten years, they will be able to sit down and have a cup of coffee and a chat across a huge wall hung screen as if they were in the same room. The network will even help them find friends by the dozen. It may not be quite as good as actually being in the same room, but it must be better than gazing at the TV. Surely reducing loneliness will be one of the greatest social benefits from the superhighway.

But we will still associate with our local community and IT will help here too. Community networks are springing up all over the UK, keeping people informed on local matters, and enabling them to take an informed and active role in the community. These community networks are growing fast and may well become one of the most successful parts of the Internet.

A likely effect of teleworking will creation of local telework centres where neighbours can work side by side for different companies. Certainly, many of us don’t have enough space for an office at home. Getting to know our neighbours via work may reinforce the sense of local community too. We may then have an interesting pair of orthogonal communities. Our geographic communities will be strengthened, but we may also have a strong sense of belonging to one or more cybercommunities. Pushing this to the limits, we may speculate of dual citizenship.

But won’t society be split into the ‘haves and the have nots’. Well, a 133MHz Pentium PC will soon be available for about the same as an average TV set, network computers will be even cheaper. Larger displays will find their way into our homes in abundance as their price falls. The cost of telecommunications will continue to fall rapidly. If there is a split at all, it will be‘wills and will nots’, a split based on choice, not ability to pay. There are already next generation luddites who don’t want to go any further into a high technology society. While some of us may choose to use IT to the utmost to have a high standard, they may run a self sufficient opt-out society, with more traditional work and social structures. I have to respect their right to an alternative lifestyle, but doubt how popular it would be. Maybe in a utopian future, almost everyone will appreciate the advantages conferred by future technology. Only time will tell for sure, but we must never forget that we have a choice of future.

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