The future of…

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The future of sport

Feb 2001

I'm rubbish at most sports (except archery), so I'm probably the least appropriate person to write about sport generally, but the 'future' of bit hopefully qualifies me to speculate about what might be coming down the road that I also won't be any good at. I was recently involved in discussing the field with the Sports Council and we discovered there are many areas where changes will affect sport. Here are some of the trends that are likely.

As the population gradually gets older, we may see an increased focus on 'gentle sports' such as swimming, Tai Chi, bowls etc. Reducing retirement age might mean that more people have more time to spend, leading to an overall increase in sporting activity. Of course, a decreasing proportion of 'young people' sports will be seen.

Shortage of skills and labour force in many areas will lead to immigration being encouraged. We will probably see a corresponding increase in various 'ethnic' sports, as well as stronger links with sport in other countries. At the same time, changing work patterns will see many people teleworking. There will be some re-building of 'community' as people telework closer to home and are involved in local community networks. There will also be a greater need to turn to sports to fill the social needs that might suffer with some teleworkers. We will thus have greater participation in local sports activities, which are better organised and co-ordinated. Similarly, more single person households will imply a demand for more sport to fill social needs. However, there will need to be greater flexibility regarding timing, since many more people will work unconventional hours.

As people use computers and the net much more in the future, there will be exploration of niche sports as people become more aware of the diverse possibilities open to them. Computers will greatly enhance many sports. We will see significant overlap of computer games and sports, as a range of force feedback technology makes for computer games that are increasingly physical. Such equipment may also be used in training, guiding the student in exactly the optimal movements, eliminating bad habits as soon as they start. Artificial intelligence will enable sports personalities to be emulated so that anyone can play against top level players via their games machine. Glasses with head-up displays, active contact lenses or wall sized screens will all provide a superb visual environment in which to participate or spectate. Sports heroes might make more money from recording their behaviours on DVD and competing with every Tom, Dick or Harriet virtually thereafter, than from actually playing in the real world. We can expect that such developments would increase the overall skill levels in every field.

Many computer games are networked today, and a big surprise when this trend started was just how many people want to be spectators in computer games. Having been trashed by a competitor, they want to see someone else fall victim later. Most people logged onto networked games platforms are just watching rather than playing. It can't be long before we see major TV events at the top levels of some popular games (there have already been a few minor series based on computer games). These 'finger sports' may take a significant proportion of sports revenue, though there will doubtless be fierce debate as to where the boundaries of 'real' sport lie when nerds start taking some top sports prizes.

Changes in work have also reduced the amount of risk that people are exposed to, and this might be one of the reasons for the growth of high risk sports. If so, we may see far more of them in the future. I had an idea a decade ago that people could anchor themselves in the middle of large inflatable spheres in which they would roll down hills, jump out of planes and so on. This idea was independently invented a few years later as Zorbing, and now even has a white water rafting variant. There is no limit to how daft some people will be in search of thrills. With a little airbag or instant gel technology, skydiving could evolve nicely with various 'open just before impact' derivatives, or perhaps make use of rocket-packs. Robotic gladiators is inevitable, all we need do is replace the crude machines from Robot Wars with androids.

Biotechnology will impact greatly in the sporting world. We frown on people using drugs to improve their results, but we don't complain about people winning events simply because they were fortunate to be born with better genes - even if those genes in some cases lead to the natural production of those same drugs. When we can tweak a person's gene pool before conception, during pregnancy or even after birth, genetic issues will undoubtedly surface as a major debate. Why are basketball players tall, why is there not a short players' league? Why do we only stream men and women in most sports, even though variations within each sex are much greater than those between them? Surely we should have more streaming and more use of handicaps to ensure that what we value is the amount a person achieves with what they were born, rather than an absolute target. After all, a 600lb gorilla is stronger than any man, but they don't feature very often in the Olympics. We will have to consider to what degree genetic modification and enhancement is acceptable. What about screening embryos against disease. Even this might confer a small advantage since filtered individuals will not have lost training time. But biotechnology will go much further than genetic manipulation. Many kinds of synthetic implants will become possible, some bionic. Use of implanted sensors in the body might enhance training and give enhanced biofeedback to improve performance during events, smooth signals into muscles etc. Perhaps we just need several new streams, and accept that people will try to improve their performance. We may happily pay to watch better tennis or football, even though the players are all on drugs and genetically optimised. So long as they are segregated from the 'natural' league, we may find sport copes well.

On a more positive note, biotechnology improvements will ensure that most of us stay much healthier for much more of our lives, and will therefore be able to participate and enjoy sports much more. Learning about our genetic profiles may help us to focus on those sports to which we are best suited, or those that would enhance our health the most. The changes ahead are mostly beneficial, and sport can look forward to a very healthy future. But I'll still be rubbish.