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The recent FAO study World Agriculture: towards 2015-2030 estimates that over the next 30 years there will be an increase of 120 Mha, or 12.6%, in the area of cultivated land in less-developed countries, a substantially lower figure than in earlier estimates.

Yet current data fail to support this presumed potential for expansion. Rather, they suggest that since the mid-1990s, no more land is being taken into cultivation. The following shows the FAOSTAT data for all less-developed countries, for low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs), showing both reported arable land, and the slightly less unreliable figures for all cereals, area harvested (i.e. including multiple cropping).

 

Arable land and cereal area harvested (million hectares)
	All LDCs arable plus perm.crops	All LDCs arable	LIFDCs arable	All LDCs cereals area harv.	LIFDCs cereals area harvested
1990	828	732	518	429	330
1991	830	733	515	432	331
1992	833	735	528	434	333
1993	841	741	533	428	329
1994	844	740	533	435	336
1995	853	747	535	435	335
1996	856	749***	536	445***	343
1997	857***	749	537	440	343
1998	857	749	539	443	345***
1999	857	749	540***	442	345
2000	857	748	540	434	338
2001	n.d.	n.d.	n.d.	435	335
2002	n.d	n.d.	n.d.	427	329

*** Year since when there has been no expansion of area

For each set of data, *** marks the year in which the maximum land area was reached, following which there has been no secular increase at all.

Since the average cereal yield has remained static at 2700 kg/ha 1996-2000, rising only to 2800 kg/ha 2001-2002, cereal production in less-developed countries has also failed to increase (1996-1999 mean 1214 Bt, 2000-2002 mean 1200 Bt).

There could be no clearer indication of the need for more investment in agricultural research and extension, and in the agricultural sector in general; and for greater efforts to reduce degradation of this limited resource of land..

June 2003

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Background on (topic of this page) is given in Chapter 13, Land, Food and People, of Land Resources: Now and for the Future.