Land Resources: Now and for the Future


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TODAY:

370 000 people were born

160 000 died

World population increased by 210 000



Written by Anthony Young

 

land-resources.com

 
World Agriculture: the next 30 years

For the third time, FAO have produced a forward projection of trends in agriculture, food and forestry, World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. Previous studies were "...toward 2000" (published 1981) and "towards 2010" (1995). This latest is a magnificent version, clearly and concisely written, well-produced and with excellent Tables and Graphs. It should be in the hands of everyone concerned with food, agriculture and poverty in the developing world.

It describes the future "as it is likely to be, not as it ought to be", and comparison with past forecasts shows a good degree of accuracy. A review can only draw attention to a few salient findings:

  • In low-income countries with high dependence on agriculture, it is local food production that determines progress in food security.
  • The present widespread chronic undernourishment (800 million people) is likely to extend well into the 21st Century. The World Food Summit target of halving this number by 2015 may not be accomplished even by 2030.
  • Net cereal and meat imports, already at high levels in most developing countries, will triple over the next 30 years.
  • Sustainability will remain under threat from rural poverty, as more and more people attempt to extract a living from dwindling natural resources; the risk grows that a vicious cycle of poverty and land degradation will set in.
  • Deforestation and forest degradation are expected to slow down [but the study is not explicit in its projections]. The sustainability of natural fisheries will remain under pressure.
  • Cereal yields are expected to grow at only 1% a year in future, compared with 2.5% 1960-90 and 1.7% 1990-2000. With developing country populations currently growing at 1.4%, prospects for avoiding chronic undernutrition and recurrent famine remain serious.

Agricultural land

Since the previous study, FAO has moderated its views on the potential for further expansion in cultivated land. The old statement, that only 36% of land suitable for crop production is use, is still quoted, but with the rider that "there is also a perception, at least in some quarters, that there is no more, or very little, land to bring under cultivation". Young's estimate that a balance of 'spare land' of 50% should realistically be reduced to between 3 and 25% is quoted. We are pleased to have achieved some impact!

As a result, the projected net increase in arable area in developing countries 1997/99 to 2030 is only 120 Mha, or 12.6%. This compares with 25% between 1961/63 and 1997/99. So it is recognized that land is becoming inreasingly scarce. Yet recent trends show no increase at all in the cultivated area since about 1995.

Interactions of population growth, poverty and hunger

For the most part, population growth is treated as an independent variable, a challenge to which agriculture must respond. However, there is an encouraging recognition that (as advocated in Chapter 14 of Land Resources) these are not independent. "[We are treating] demographic projections [as] assumptions exogenous to the food and agriculture projections proper. This is not entirely as it should be." Alternative scenarios, comparing the UN High, Medium and Low population projections, are discussed in Text Box 2.3.

June 2003

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This News item is relevant to large parts of Land Resources: Now and for the Future), most particularly Chapter 13, Land, food and people.