Energy Panic

Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20006

The Changing Geopolitics of Energy – Part I
Key Global Trends in Supply and Demand: 1990-2020

August 12, 1998
[excerpts selected by nlpwessex]

· Oil and gas energy use rises by 75% in BTUs between 1997 and 2020.

· Industrialized world and US become steadily more dependent on
imports, with economic growth and Enhanced Oil Recovery
(EOR) acting as the major uncertainty.

· Demand from the industrialized world, however, no longer
dominates growth.

· Asia will become the dominant consuming region by 2010.

· Asia’s Imports will increase accordingly.

· China is actively competing in the "Great Game" for
Central Asia oil and has outbid US firms in some areas.

· The Middle East and the Gulf are projected to dominate
increases in oil supply.

· The growing domestic demand for oil in other developing
regions will become a major factor and with steadily limit the
export capabilities of the Middle East, Africa, and FSU.

· Pipeline, port, and tanker geopolitics will change fundamentally
during 1998-2020.

· Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Russia represent "high risk" oil suppliers
with major potential geopolitical impacts.

Graph
''Growing World and US Dependence on Imported Oil: 1990-2020"
(Av Daily Domestic Production V Demand)
-click here to see graph

"A map produced by Harvard, Unocal and others in the spring of 2002
shows the first stages in the encirlcement of OPEC. Added in August, additional troop deployment indentified by FTW, show that OPEC is not only surrounded, but about to be devided for peicemeal consumption"
From the Wilderness Publications, 21 August 2002
Click here to view map

"[Before the 1991 war] Saddam Hussein claimed that Kuwait was part of Iraq. To have and to hold it would put him on the way to achieving something that the Soviets had yearned for right after the Second War and been denied by the intervention of the United Nations, which was to be sovereign of the Gulf - and so, as Churchill foresaw and warned about, soon to be able to conquer Europe without a war by possessing 60% of the oil Western Europe lived by and so be able to dictate to countries like Britain, France, Germany, that they should abandon their precious democratic ways and get themselves governments friendly to Iraq..... two days after Saddam's invasion the United States had no more idea of going to war with Saddam than the United Kingdom had of fighting Germany three days before it declared war in August 1914. What so swiftly transformed the views and policy of the United States and the onlooking allies-to-be was the recognition, first pressed on President Bush by Mrs Thatcher and then rather late in the day realised by the King of Saudi Arabia, that once he held Kuwait there was nothing to stop Saddam from seizing the Saudi oil fields."
Goldfinger is still alive and well
Alistaire Cooke's Letter From America, BBC Online, 24 June 2002

"Trends in energy markets have been comparatively benign over the past 10–15 years: the UK has been self-sufficient in energy; commercial decisions have resulted in changes in the fuel mix that have reduced UK emissions of greenhouse gases; and trends in world markets and domestic liberalisation have reduced most fuel prices. The future context for energy policy will be different. The UK will be increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas... Increasingly policy towards energy security ...... will be pursued in a global arena, as part of an international effort.... energy security should be addressed by a variety of means, including enhanced international activity and continued monitoring.... The UK is currently one of just two G7 countries which is self-sufficient in energy..... The future for energy policy seems likely to be much less benign.... issues of energy security are likely to become more important. The UK will become increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas.... most other G7 countries already rely substantially on imported energy. ... [One way to maintain security is] to use international action to address global threats to energy security. On just about any scenario the UK will become more dependent on imports both for both its gas and its oil. There is little risk of there being insufficient gas available internationally: there is plenty, and 70% of the world supplies can be accessed from Europe. But the UK cannot be sanguine about the path that the gas will take from its source to the European market and the risks it may encounter en route..."
The Energy Review
A Performance and Innovation Unit Report - UK Cabinet Office - February 2002

"Dwindling domestic supplies and surging demand could lead to a severe gas shortage within three years, the Department of Trade and Industry warned British consumers yesterday."
Gas shortage in Britain 'due within three years'
London Times, 26 June 2002

"Brian Wilson, the Energy Minister, said that Britain will become heavily dependent on imported natural gas .... the Energy Minister predicted that 70 per cent of Britain’s electricity would be generated from gas by 2020 and 90 per cent of the fuel would need to be imported... Mr Wilson’s comments come after rumours that the Government’s White Paper is likely to water down a previous target that renewable sources of energy account for a fifth of power generation by 2020.... The Energy Minister, who is in Algeria [yet another Islamic country whose internal affairs we will no doubt start meddling with as our energy dependency on it grows, nlpwessex] discussing the possibility of importing liquefied natural gas to Britain, said that the issue of future gas supply should not be overlooked."
UK 'will depend on imported gas'
London Times, 21 February 2003

"The removal of Saddam is, in effect, the removal of the last threat to the free flow of oil from the Gulf as a whole. There is nothing like it anywhere else in the world. It's the big prize."
Gerald Butt, Gulf editor of the Middle East Economic Survey
London Times, 11 July 2002

Merchants of Death
Britain Promotes 50 Year War For Oil

"The Government is facing a battle with leading car manufacturers over the car of the future after deciding that fossil fuels will not be phased out for at least another 50 years. Ministers have rejected a proposal to convert Britain’s cars to hydrogen by 2025, and called on manufacturers to develop more efficient models powered by petrol or diesel. However, several manufacturers, including BMW, have invested hundreds of millions of pounds in developing emission-free cars that run on hydrogen.... The Carbon Trust, a government-funded body that promotes low-carbon technology, has advised ministers that to meet this target they should ensure that hydrogen is widely used to power cars by 2025.... Prototypes of BMW’s hydrogen powered 7-series have driven 100,000 miles during development without problems. The engine can run on both hydrogen and petrol, meaning that cars could be driven before a network of hydrogen filling stations was established. "
Minister is set for collision on move to hydrogen cars
London Times, 22 April 2002

Oil and Gas Dependency Means World War,
and Crimes Against Humanity

It's Time To Abandon The Hydrocabon Based Global Economy

Solar Energy, Agriculture and World Peace - click here

Remove The Visionless Oil Men From The White House
They Are Obstructing The Development Of Alternative Energy Programmes
And Spreading War Throughout The Globe

Hot Cheney's Energy Policy - Did Sept 11 victims die for Enron? - 8 March 2002 Hot

"A quarter of Britain’s electricity needs could be met by building the world’s largest complex of wind farms in the North Sea off East Anglia, the former research arm of the Atomic Energy Authority said. AEA Technology concluded after a study, backed by Britain’s second biggest electricity company, that technology had advanced so much and costs had fallen so far that it was now economically and techically viable to build 40 offshore wind farms by 2020."
Wind farm plan for East Coast
London Times, 26 July 2002

"[One] reason for the Middle East's excessive economic power is the assumption that oil must remain the world's dominant energy source for at least the next 20 or 30 years. But there is nothing inevitable about the dominance of oil. Car engines that can run on liquified natural gas and fuel cells have already been developed by several motor manufacturers. Vast amounts of electricity can be generated from wind, nuclear, solar, biomass and other non-oil sources, all of which have the additional advantage of eliminating carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect. Why are these new technologies not already in use, or at least built into long-term energy planning, which still rests overwhelmingly on oil? The global energy and motor industries believe it is in their interests to delay for as long as possible the transition from oil."
"The West must break its addiction to oil"
Anatole Kaletsky, London Times, 18 October 2001

"But there are three major obstacles which must be overcome before we can take oil off the list of key objectives for our military and foreign policy. These obstacles are the the difficulty of changing official thinking, the vested interests of the oil companies, and the need for a transition strategy....Once free of the oil imperative many objectives for reducing the tax burden of defense spending and enabling a stronger world development policy will be easier....At a time when many feel all too helpless in the face of unfolding military activity a change in fundamental strategy is something that we can and should work for....Citizens in a democracy must be actors and not just observers or victims. "
London Observer, 7 October 2001

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Armitage and the UK National Security Adviser
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