To View Graph Click Here
BBC TV Highlights
Imminent Energy Crisis
www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/BBCifthelightsgoout.htm
"Unless
we make decisions now our electricity will start to run out
within five years."
Professor Ian Fells,
World Energy Council
'If... the lights go out'
BBC 2, 10 March 2004
(see programme trailer below)
"This
is a very, very difficult problem to solve, and we just have
never attempted to solve a problem of this magnitude in this
country ever before."
Kelvin Beer, Gas Strategist,
Deloitte Petroleum Services
BBC 2, 10 March 2004
(see programme trailer below)
"Britain's homes could be without
light and heat for long periods by 2020 with the government being
forced to repeat the 1974 imposition of power cuts by rota, a
doom-laden report by the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE)
says today. By then, 80% of the gas to fuel Britain's power
stations and domestic central heating will be piped 'from
politically unstable countries thousands of miles away.'"
A vision of Britain in 2020: power cuts
and the 3-day week
Guardian, 1 July
2003
"Dwindling
domestic supplies and surging demand could lead to a severe gas
shortage within three years, the Department of Trade and
Industry warned British consumers yesterday."
Gas shortage in Britain 'due within three years'
London Times, 26 June 2002
"Inflated oil prices and natural gas
shortages are wiping out jobs and savings, thanks to three
decades of bungled energy policy. Get ready for more bungling...
This comes at a time when Americans are heading into their first
big energy squeeze since the 1970s: a shortage of natural gas,
the invisible resource used to heat homes, fuel kitchen
appliances, generate electricity and manufacture many of the
chemicals we use. The shortage has triggered a sharp rise in
prices that is likely to exact a heavy toll on low- and
middle-income Americans, especially those living on fixed
incomes. "
Why
US Is Running Out of Gas
Time Magazine, 21
July 2003
"Our
industry can certainly be proud of its past achievements. Yet the
challenges we will face in the coming years will be every bit as
great as those encountered in the past, due in part to
ever-increasing global energy use. For example, we estimate that
world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at
an average rate of about 4 to 6 percent a year. To meet projected
demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million
oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That's equal to
about 80 percent of today's production level. In
other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a
volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10
barrels being produced today."
John Thompson, President of
ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company
The Lamp (published for ExxonMobil
shareholders), 2003, Vol. 85 No.1
AFTER THE INVASION OF IRAQ
"The
UK is a net exporter of oil, so we have no need of the Iraqi
oil."
British Prime Minister, House of Commons, 14 April 2003
BEFORE THE INVASION OF IRAQ
"....
our energy system faces new challenges.... Our energy supplies
will increasingly depend on imported gas and oil..... we need
access to a wide range of energy sources."
British Prime Minister, Foreword to DTI Energy White
Paper, February 2003
Tuesday, 9 March 2004
In a 'drama documentary' to be broadcast on Wednesday night the BBC asks the question "Is Britain at risk of the same sort of catastrophic power cut recently seen in the United States and if so, why?" (see more programme details below).
Since June 2001 we have been reporting on the growing global energy crisis, and more recently on the special vulnerability of Britain as North Sea oil and gas rapidly deplete.
Over the next ten years North Sea oil is expected to be all but gone, and the DTI has previously predicted UK gas shortages as early as 2005.
This topic is now - at last - rising fast up the public agenda.
However, it would be a mistake to rely solely on government to provide leadership in tackling this immense issue. This is particularly because the time horizon of politicians typically stretches little beyond the next election - although so pressing is the anticipated energy crisis that it is now moving onto the edge of even that kind of timescale ( i.e. 5 to 10 years).
As a result of this fundamental weakness in the political system, which works against long term planning in a variety of areas, virtually nothing has been done about this enormous problem. Yet it is one which has been clearly visible from at least the time of the global energy crisis of 1973 when the western world discovered the real meaning of its economic dependence on OPEC.
The difference between now and then, however, is crucial. Then OPEC was able to control the situation simply by turning the oil taps on or off to its own advantage. Now even OPEC itself is no longer in control as it becomes increasingly unable to supply exploding global demand for oil and gas at the very moment when reserves are beginning to deplete faster than they are being replaced.
The whole subject is in desperate need of a major public debate along the lines of those created for the GM crops issue in the UK. Initially generated by pressure groups, the GM debate was eventually formally embraced under duress by the British government through the creation of the Agriculture and Environment Biotechnology Commission.
Pressure to address the rapidly approaching energy crisis may also initially have to come from the grass roots. The subject ought already to be the number one issue in the upcoming US presidential election. As yet it shows no signs of becoming so.
US dependency on imported oil and gas is central to the functioning of the American economy and to the execution of its foreign policy which since 911 has rapidly destabilised international relations and increased the threat of international terrorism. Iraq has now been opened up to penetration by al Qaeda, and Afghanistan is less stable than when ruled by the Taleban - the tribal warlords have returned to dominance outside of Kabul and heroin production (previously largely eliminated) has reached record levels. This increased drug production is now pouring onto the streets of the western world.
Apart from its opportunistic post-911 military activities in the oil and gas rich Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf regions the US has also being trying to topple the democratically elected government of Venezuela for some time, in large part because of the unwillingness of President Chavez to play ball over oil issues. Venezuela is one of the main suppliers of oil to the US outside of the Islamic world.
The US is also widely considered to have supported the recent revolution in Georgia for similar reasons. Like Afghanistan Georgia is part of a critical pipeline network being planned for the transport of Caspian Sea oil to global shipping routes. However, President Edward Shevardnaze had been increasingly turning towards Russia rather than the US for deals in the energy sector.
Although the Georgian people are clearly pleased to see the back of Shevardnaze, promotion of local democracy was not the motive for US support of their revolution. At more or less the same time the US was turning a blind eye to the fraudulent 'election' of Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan because of his support for the same pipeline network and other deals with increasingly desperate western energy companies. The impending energy crisis is the foremost element driving this process.
In order to begin to appreciate the magnitude of this global energy problem please visit our "GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS LOOMING" web page at www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm.
If you have only a little time to absorb the material there then just look at one item close to the top of the page - this is the graph of global oil and gas production plotted against demand to 2015. It was published in a report only last month by ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company.
To View Graph
Click Here
If you understand that graph, you are likely to understand what is looming.
Despite the brave face put on this situation by Exxon in their report the graph was published only shortly after the London Times had confirmed (26 January) that "Oil groups face growing pressure to quit the North Sea amid evidence of global failure to find big new oil deposits. The world’s top ten energy companies are failing to find enough new crude to replenish their reserves... Shell this month scared investors when it cut a fifth of its reserves to 'unproven' status. The outcry led Wood Mackenzie to study the industry’s top ten and the consultancy has concluded they are finding fewer barrels."
A month later the New York Times (24 February), reported that "[Saudi Arabia] oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years. Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply.... An internal Saudi Aramco plan, the experts said, estimates total production capacity in 2011 at 10.15 million barrels a day, about the current capacity. But to meet expected world demand, the United States Department of Energy's research arm says Saudi Arabia will need to produce 13.6 million barrels a day by 2010 and 19.5 million barrels a day by 2020.... Edward O. Price Jr., a former top Saudi Aramco and Chevron executive and a leading United States government adviser, says he believes that Saudi Arabia can pump up to 12 million barrels a day 'for a few years.' But 'the world should not expect more from the Saudis,' he said. He expects global oil markets to be in short supply by 2015.'...". Saudi Arabia is the biggest supplier of oil to the global economy - and by far.
Think about these recent reports when looking at the Exxon graph. Then watch the BBC on Wednesday night.
NATURAL
LAW PARTY WESSEX
nlpwessex@btinternet.com
www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex
| "If... the lights go out" will be broadcast on BBC Two on Wednesday, 10 March, 2004 at 2100 GMT. |
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctwo/listings/programme.shtml?day=wednesday&service_id=4224&filename=20040310/20040310_2100_4224_15945_60
If... The Lights Went Out
Wed 10 Mar, 9:00
pm - 10:00 pm 60mins
| The south-east of
England is plunged into darkness following a terrorist
attack on a gas pipeline in Russia. It is the biggest
power cut Britain has ever seen. The scenario is fictional, but the interviews and the issues are real. If... is a new series of drama documentaries that takes the major issues of the day and projects them into the near future. Interweaving inventive storytelling and rigorous journalism, and drawing on evidence and predictions from internationally respected experts and commentators, If... offers an authoritative reflection on the decisions being made in contemporary Britain today. If The Lights Go Out is set in the winter of 2010 and Britain is struggling to generate enough electricity to cope with demand. It paints a scenario of a future in which the south-east of England is plunged into darkness. Householders are left with no water or electricity, traffic is gridlocked, tube trains are stranded underground and airports closed. As the situation worsens, emergency services are affected and lives are put at risk. |
Subtitles Stereo Widescreen
Website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/if
If...the lights go out |
Could Britain be facing a widespread, catastrophic power cut in the future? The short answer is yes. "Unless we make decisions now our electricity will start to run out within five years," Professor Ian Fells, World Energy Council. In our scenario, set in the winter of 2010, Britain is struggling to generate enough electricity to cope with demand. We've used most of our reserves in the North Sea and are already heavily dependent on imported gas to generate electricity, the majority of which we buy from Russia. But a terrorist attack on a gas pipeline in Russia has a disastrous affect on Britain. We see the crisis from the point of view of Bill McAllister, the newly-appointed energy minister, who thought back-up systems were in place. However, after the Russian gas pipeline goes down, he finds he quickly runs out of options. By evening rush-hour, whole sections of the country begin to lose power, including the capital city London. Lives at risk Very quickly the south east of England is plunged into darkness; householders are left with no water or electricity, traffic is gridlocked, tube trains are stranded underground and airports closed. As the situation worsens emergency services are affected and people's lives are put at risk. "The effect in the UK could be very quick indeed. "This is a very, very difficult problem to solve, and we just have never attempted to solve a problem of this magnitude in this country ever before," says Kelvin Beer, Gas Strategist, Deloitte Petroleum Services. Has the deregulated electricity industry put us at greater risk of black-outs? Do the current crises in coal-fired and nuclear power generation - and the fact that Britain's reserves of gas are running out - mean that power cuts will be a way of life in the future? During the programme, we interview today's energy experts who give us their view on what's happening in energy policy. They explain how falling prices, rising consumption, industry regulation and privatisation have, and could, affect Britain's electricity business. "The trouble is there's no clear line of authority, there's no clarity as to who exactly is responsible," says energy economist Dieter Helm. "If you want the lights to stay on, if you want security of supply, if you want what a modern economy needs you have to be absolutely clear what your priorities are, who has the right powers and how they will be exercised, then the market works. "But we're a long way from that
point yet, and that is the challenge that should be at
the Department of Trade and Industry's door morning, noon
and night. " Ofgem factsheet - Securing Britain's electricity supply (96K) |
NATURAL LAW PARTY WESSEX
nlpwessex@btinternet.com
www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex
