US EIA Oil Production Forecasts

"I think in total the [EIA] outlook is much too high for production and it’s unrealistic for the world to be expecting such high numbers from all of the producers, including Saudi Arabia ..... I think this is a rather dangerous situation for the US government policy to be based on."
Sadad al-Husseini
former vice-president for exploration and production at Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco
Channel 4, 26 October 2004

EIA PROJECTED INCREASES IN PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO 2025 EIA International Energy Outlook 2004
Country	M bpd 2025	% Increase From 2001
Saudi Arabia	22.5	121
Iraq	6.6	136
UAE	5.2	93
Kuwait	5.0	108
Iran	4.9	32
Qatar	0.8	33
PERSIAN GULF OPEC TOTAL	45.0	101
Venezuela	5.6	75
OPEC TOTAL (including others)	61.5	89
NON-OPEC TOTAL	64.6	38
WORLD TOTAL	126.1	59
Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2004 - Appendix D, Table D1 (p 213)

"The whole industry laughs at it, [the EIA oil supply
projection]. They are perhaps unaware of how unrealistic these numbers are. Should we be worried? Yes."
Sadad al-Husseini
former vice-president for exploration and production of Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco
Dow Jones newswire, 27 October 2004

"Al-Husseini said he wanted to call their figures to task because they shape major government policy decision more than any other agency's data."
Ex-Saudi Oil Exec Criticizes US Govt Oil Supply Forecast
DJ Ex-Saudi Oil Exec Criticizes US Govt Oil Supply Forecast
Dow Jones newswire, 27 October 2004

"The energy crisis we are in today is entirely different from the temporary problems we experienced in 1973-74, 1979-86, 1990-91 and 2000..... There was always sufficient worldwide geological capacity to produce additional barrels of crude oil to meet the world's needs. No longer. In the next major energy crisis, that capacity will likely be eroded. So the crisis should have a severe impact, be global in scope, and be difficult to solve. Plainly, it will be unprecedented.... Over the next 25 years, a new world energy economy will arrive in three waves. We are near the top of the first and smallest one, a warning wave. A second more powerful wave likely will hit in the 2009-2010 period when the non-OPEC world may reach its all-time highest output of crude oil, subsequently declining to become ever more dependent on OPEC for incremental barrels of production. The final wave should break around 2020, or earlier, as even OPEC's vast reserves are tapped at a maximum rate of production. After that, oil volume should head down and keep falling, never to revive..... An international economic disturbance of this magnitude will create potential conflicts between nations and civil competition within societies. These could be a trial for us and for our children, made worse in the early years by our lack of preparation and our failure to understand what is already happening to us."
The Gathering Storm
Energy Bulletin, 15 November 2004