"....For the most part, U.S. oil policy has relied on maintenance of free access to Middle East Gulf oil and free access for Gulf exports to world markets, relying heavily on military preparedness. The U.S. has forged a special relationship with certain key Middle East exporters that had an expressed interest in stable oil prices and, we assumed, would adjust their oil output to keep prices at levels that would neither discourage global economic growth nor fuel inflation. Taking this dependence a step further, the U.S. government has operated under the assumption that the national oil companies of these countries would make the investments needed to maintain enough surplus capacity to form a cushion against disruptions. But recently, things have changed. These Gulf allies are finding their domestic and foreign policy interests increasingly at odds with America’s strategic considerations. They have become less inclined to lower oil prices in exchange for security of markets, and evidence suggests that adequate investment is not being made in a timely enough manner to increase production capacity in line with growing global needs....... The resulting tight markets have increased U.S. and global vulnerability to disruption and provided adversaries undue potential influence over the price of oil. Iraq has become a key 'swing' producer,   posing a difficult situation for the U.S. government."
STRATEGIC ENERGY POLICY: CHALLENGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
JAMES A. BAKER III INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND THE COUNCIL FOR FOREIGN RELATIONS, APRIL 2001

"Our industry can certainly be proud of its past achievements. Yet the challenges we will face in the coming years will be every bit as great as those encountered in the past, due in part to ever-increasing global energy use. For example, we estimate that world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at an average rate of about 4 to 6 percent a year. To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That's equal to about 80 percent of today's production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today."
John Thompson, President of ExxonMobil Exploration
The Lamp (published for ExxonMobil shareholders), 2003, Vol. 85 No.1

"After years of work on peak oil, it is rare for me to find a book written for the general public that can teach me something I didn’t know before. But with David Strahan’s book, 'The Last Oil Shock,' it was a different matter. While I often just thumb through this kind of books, this one was worth reading carefully, line by line. Books on peak oil, so far, have been written mostly by geologists, and in general by scientists. Their approach is normally rather impersonal and is based on the analysis of literature data. Strahan’s approach, instead, is that of the investigative journalist and it is based on interviews. The result is lively and rich in insights. For instance, Strahan manages to make a convincing case that the people in power know much more about peak oil than they care to tell to us, the poor petroleum peasants. Maybe you suspected that already, but Strahan will give you much food for thought on the matter."
The Last Oil Shock - book review
ASPO-Italy, 15 April 2007

Including Dick Cheney

"For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously in control of about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow."
Dick Cheney, Chief Executive of Halliburton, now Vice President of the United States
Speech at London Institute of Petroleum, Autumn Lunch 1999

But Cheney's Iraq Project Has Failed

"On March 27, 2003, Paul Wolfowitz, then deputy secretary of defense, predicted that Iraq's oil revenue would 'finance' its reconstruction and do so 'relatively soon.'....According to State Department figures, production has been stagnant at 2.1 million barrels per day, or 400,000 barrels per day below the immediate prewar peak (which was matched for a few months in 2004)."
Oil's Not Well in Iraq
The Weekly Standard, 10 February 2007

"The global market will need increasing volumes of oil from members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries after non-OPEC production reaches a maximum of about 50 million b/d between 2007 and 2011... A question crucial to future oil supply, therefore is: Can OPEC's old fields deliver....  Most of the supergiant oil fields have had water or gas injection installed to maintain pressure for 20-30 years. Handling produced injection fluids is a growing problem in Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and in older fields in Iraq (Kirkuk, Zubair, and Rumailah).... The oil fields of Iraq are the least depleted and least developed of any of the Persian Gulf oil producing countries, and Iraq has the potential to rapidly increase oil output.... Combined with earlier results, these predictions for OPEC yield an estimate of the world's ultimate recoverable oil reserves of 2.5-2.9 trillion bbl, with 1.29-1.66 trillion bbl remaining (1.224 trillion bbl produced to end 2003)..... It seems unlikely that OPEC can increase production at the rate that was possible in the 1960s and 1970s, when the fields were fresh and initial well production rates were higher... Only Iraq has undeveloped supergiant oil fields (West Qurna, Majnoon, and East Baghdad) and the potential to rapidly increase production to 8-10 million b/d...... The five Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the UAE) are crucial to raising OPEC production. The political situation in Iraq is unlikely to be conducive to major investment in new oil production capacity for some years. Saudi Arabia has serious internal problems, which threaten to destabilize the ruling royal family. Iran remains under unilateral US sanctions. US military intervention in the Gulf and its failure to effectively and fairly engage in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict conspire to provide a hostile backdrop to western interests in the Middle East. The combination of burgeoning future oil revenues and growing hostility to the US in the region is not conducive to major capacity expansion and will not provide a stable investment environment or offer easy opportunities to the major international oil companies to assist in any capacity expansion projects. Based on these considerations and the maturity of OPEC’s major fields, it seems more likely that OPEC’s considerable reserves will be expressed as a long plateau rather than a sharp peak. It is quite possible that the Persian Gulf countries will not raise production capacity high enough or quickly enough, either for political reasons, the slowness of internal decision-making, or the hostile security environment. The consequences of this for world oil supply are immense, with the likelihood of further military interventions and conflicts within the Middle East ….. It is unlikely, except in the high reserves case, that OPEC production will be able to meet the high demand forecast of 121 million b/d for 2025 by the US Energy Information Administration. OPEC is able to meet mid-demand growth (1.5%) until 2013-15 if OPEC’s oil reserves are low or until 2017-20 if OPEC’s reserves are high. OPEC is able to meet low-demand growth (about 1%/year) until 2020 under either reserves scenario. These forecasts suggest world oil demand is likely to be dampened by a rising oil price due to supply constraints, particularly after non-OPEC production peaks (2007-11), but also when OPEC production increases start to tail off. This could occur in 2010-15 if OPEC’s reserves turn out to be low or around 2015-20 if OPEC’s reserves are high. Oil supply will become increasingly concentrated in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union. The proportion of oil production from the main producers of the Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE) is forecast to rise to 45% in 2025 from 25% in 2003. Just seven countries – Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE and Venezuela – are expected to make up more than 60% of world oil production in 2025. For the range of oil reserves demand scenarios considered here, world oil supply is predicted to peak at 90-105 million b/d between 2016 and 2028…Based on these results, the EIA forecast of world demand of more than 120 million b/d in 2025 seems unlikely to be met by production ….. Total world oil reserves are estimated at 2.5 – 2.9 trillion bbl. The world has consumed 1.224 trillion bbl to the end of 2004, so remaining reserves are estimated at 1.3-1.7 trillion bbl (Table 1).As the different components of supply reach their maximum production rate, a series of crises in oil supply is likely over the coming decades. The first, related to the peak and decline of non-OPEC production, is practically upon us and underpins the currently high oil prices. Other factors are burgeoning world oil demand, driven primarily by China and the USA, and restricted output from Iraq. The imminent inability of non-OPEC production to meet incremental demand and its decline after 2010 precipitates the second crisis as OPEC’s diminishing spare capacity (even with Iraq’s production back to preinvasion levels) becomes less and less able to accommodate short-term fluctuations. The timing and depth of the crisis depend on world oil demand and OPEC investment in new capacity. While OPEC countries will have every incentive to make the necessary investments, the pace of past decision-making is not encouraging, and enough spare capacity may not be available in time. The third crisis, due to OPEC’s incremental supply being unable to meet incremental demand, follows in the first half of the next decade. This assumes that OPEC’s reserves are as published. If OPEC’s reserves are higher than published, this crisis may not occur until the latter half of the next decade and may be muted, particularly if demand moderates. These crises will have global economic and geopolitical significance: The oil price will be high and volatile, and demand growth will have to be curtailed..."
Oil Supply Challenges - 2: What Can OPEC Deliver?
Oil and Gas Journal, 7 March 2005
(The Author: Peter. R.A. Wells is managing director of Neftex Petroleum Advisors Ltd. He spent 12 years with Shell International in positions that included exploration manager for eastern Nigeria, followed by 4 years with BP PLC, where he was chief negotiator for Azerbaijan in 1992-3.)

However Desperate Dick Isn't Done Yet With His Criminal Scheming

"The US would also have even less justification under international law for such an attack on Iran than it had over Iraq. The UN security council would never authorise it because Iran has not breached the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nor can the US or Israel claim they had the right to a pre-emptive strike. By long-established law, a pre-emptive strike is justified only to defend against an 'imminent and certain' attack. To claim the right of self-defence against a threat that may or may not emerge in 5 years' time is to claim the right to wage aggressive war whenever one chooses. It is worth recalling that that was one of the two grounds on which Nazi leaders were convicted and executed at Nuremburg. The truth is, Iran has done nothing illegal. It has demonstrated no territorial ambitions and has not occupied any foreign country - unlike the US, Britain and Israel. It has complied with its obligations under the NPT to allow inspectors 'to go anywhere and see anything' - unlike the US and Israel which refuse this. Indeed, by comparison, Israel has refused to recognise the NPT, and holds between 200-500 thermonuclear weapons targeted at Iran and other Middle East countries. Nor do any of the West's arguments for war against Iran hold water. It is said repeatedly that Iran is about to produce a nuclear bomb, and cannot be allowed to do so. In fact, Iran is not about to produce a bomb or anywhere near it. Iran is believed to have enriched uranium to the 3.5% level, enough for use as nuclear fuel, but it would require 90% enrichment, with 50-100 kg of it, to make a single bomb. As to the argument that Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, who decides that? What right does the US have to decide who should or should not have nuclear weapons? ..... So why, against all this background, is the US so bent on attacking Iran? Two considerations are probably decisive. One is that President Bush clearly sees his role in the Middle East in messianic terms and will not let does-not-make-sense arguments stand in the way of what he regards as his manifest destiny. The other is oil. Iran holds the world's largest supplies of oil after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and holds more oil and gas combined than any other country on the planet. As Peak Oil rapidly approaches, the US demand to control the lion's share of what is left - pitifully short-sighted though such a policy is - is now the dominant driving geopolitical force in world politics today."
Michael Meacher - A war down memory lane
Gardian, Comment Is Free, 11 January 2007

'The Final Frontier'
Shell And Major Candian Bank Say
Conventional Oil Production Has Already Peaked

"My view is that 'easy' oil has probably passed its peak."
Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell
Financial Times, 24 January 2006

About: 'CIBC World Markets is the wholesale banking arm of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), one of North America's first and largest financial institutions.'

Note: This CIBC Analysis Projects That Global Oil Supply Will
Reach Only Just Over 88 Million Barrels Per Day By 2010
However A Recent Forecast From The IEA Is That Global Demand Will Reach Over 93 Million By 2010

But What Happens After 2010?
CIBC Doesn't Say Although Its Production Graph Is Clearly Flattening Out Around Then
The Editor Of Petroleum Review Forecasts Total Peak In 2011 Including Unconventionals At Around 94 Million Barrels Per Day

BBC
Why 'Peak Oil' Is A Major Threat To Climate Change

"After years of work on peak oil, it is rare for me to find a book written for the general public that can teach me something I didn’t know before. But with David Strahan’s book, 'The Last Oil Shock,' it was a different matter. While I often just thumb through this kind of books, this one was worth reading carefully, line by line. Books on peak oil, so far, have been written mostly by geologists, and in general by scientists. Their approach is normally rather impersonal and is based on the analysis of literature data. Strahan’s approach, instead, is that of the investigative journalist and it is based on interviews. The result is lively and rich in insights. For instance, Strahan manages to make a convincing case that the people in power know much more about peak oil than they care to tell to us, the poor petroleum peasants. Maybe you suspected that already, but Strahan will give you much food for thought on the matter."
The Last Oil Shock - book review
ASPO-Italy, 15 April 2007

What Do Tar Sands Mean
For Global Energy Supply And Global Warming?

"Alberta's oil sands will become the most important source of new oil in the world by 2010 as conventional crude dries up, CIBC World Markets says in its latest monthly report. Alberta will sit on one of the most valuable energy sources in the world by that time, and one of the few still open to private investment, said Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, the bank's wholesale banking arm. He added that conventional oil production around the world apparently peaked in 2004. Rubin found that total oil supplies around the world grew by less than one million barrels a day last year. None of that growth came from outside the OPEC sphere. ... Rubin looked at 164 upcoming oil fields in his study and found that new oil is, in fact, being discovered and it is coming on stream. But more than half simply balances declining production from existing fields in the North Sea and Kuwait's Burgan region. Rubin does expect a net gain in oil production in coming years, but it will be small and getting smaller. Rubin expects 3.6 million barrels of new oil to come on stream in 2006, but 2.2 million barrels will go to replace declining reserves elsewhere, leaving just 1.4 million barrels of new oil. He expects 1.5 million barrels of new oil in 2006 and 2007, but less than a million barrels a day in 2008. Energy companies are finding new oil, but most of it will come from non-conventional sources. Ocean oil rigs are the primary source of new oil today, with Alberta's oil sands tomorrow, with expansion projects rivaling those of Saudi Arabia. Suncor Energy Inc. and its predecessor, Great Canadian Oil Sands, have been developing the oil sands near Fort McMurray in northern Alberta since 1963. But the project was hobbled by the difficulties and expense of extracting crude oil from what is essentially a oily sand."
Alberta oil sands to star now we're post-peak: CIBC World Markets
CBC News, 11 January 2007

Too Little Oil To Come From Oil Sands?
Expanding Oil Sand Production Is Likely To Be A Struggle

"The answer to America's oil addiction lies in Canada. Or so goes one line of thinking. As oil supplies got tighter and crude prices soared over the last few years, tens of billions of dollars flowed into an effort to develop the biggest oil reserve outside Saudi Arabia: Alberta's oil sands. Along with the development rush have come rosy predictions on how much this secure, close, proven supply of oil might yield. Four million, 6 million, even 10 million barrels a day, which is nearly half America's total daily consumption and would easily replace all imports from the Middle East. The only thing is, those numbers may be far too high."
Curing oil sands fever
CNN, 7 October 2006

"Global oil demand growth is seen rising 2% annually through 2011, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, in a forecast that is more optimistic about the rate of future energy consumption compared with previous five-year periods, because of rapid growth in Asia. World oil consumption growth is expected to rise on average by 1.8 million barrels a day over the five-year period, from 84.5 million barrels a day in 2006 to 93.3 million barrels a day in 2011, the Paris-based IEA forecast in its medium-term report for 2006-2011. The 2% annually growth rate in consumption compares with growth of 1.8% in 2001-2006, and 1.4% in the 1996-2001 period.... oil producing nations and international oil companies need to continue to sink money into new capacity over the next several years. The IEA said Chinese oil consumption growth is expected to rise annually by 5.7%, more three times the oil demand growth pace in the U.S., while Middle East countries as a whole will use oil at an average annual rate of 4.9%."
IEA: 2006-2011 Global Oil Demand Growth Seen Rising 2% a Year
Dow Jones Newswires, 6 February 2007

Or Too Much?
What The Expansion Of Oil Sands Production Would Mean For Climate Change

"Other new hydrocarbon energy frontiers include heavy oils and where oil is contained in sand and shales... But they are more carbon-intensive and increase the urgency of finding ways of tackling carbon emissions...."
Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell
Financial Times, 24 January 2006

"Whilst it has taken 145 years to consume half of the 2-2½ trillion barrels of conventional oil supplies generally regarded as the total available, it is likely that, given the huge increases in demand from China and India, with rates of growth of 7pc-10pc a year in economies supplying two-fifths of the world population, the other half will be largely consumed within the next 40 years. The significance of this can hardly be over-stated. Oil is the fundamental underpinning of our civilization. Alternatives like biofuels, ethanol or biomass can play a marginal supportive role but nowhere near on the scale required.... Some 98pc of global crude oil comes from 45 nations, of which more than half may have peaked in oil production, including seven of the 11 Opec nations.Major oil field discoveries fell to zero for the first time in 2003. Worse still, the excess capacity held by Opec nations has dwindled, from an average of 30pc to about 1pc of global demand now. The political significance of this is almost incalculable. World oil and gas production is declining at an average of 4pc-6pc a year, while demand is growing at 2pc-3pc a year.... Global oil production is 84m barrels a day. As the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration, John Thompson, said in 2003: 'By 2015 we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.' That is not just a problem of better technology. Additional oil on that scale is not available. There are three options to escape this dilemma. One, which the US is ruthlessly pursuing, is to grab by force of arms the lion's share of what remains. A second is to shift into unconventional sources of oil - tar sands, extra heavy oils and gas to liquids processing. A third is to accelerate the switch out of oil altogether into renewable sources of energy, especially wind power, biomass, tidal power and solar. What is so disturbing is that long-term global policymaking on this, perhaps the biggest decision this century, is virtually non-existent and driven instead by self-destructive short-termism. The first option was the real reason behind the first Gulf War in 1991, to deter Saddam gaining control of the Saudi oilfields. It was also a major reason for the orchestrated revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, as well as the military interventions in Afghanistan and Yugoslavia, all of which offer key oil transit routes from the Caspian Sea Basin, which holds the world's biggest untapped fossil fuel resources, worth up to $5 trillion. Equally it is also one major reason for Russian intervention in Chechnya, part of the northerly transit route between the Caspian and Black Sea under current Russian control. It is certainly another reason for US concern about Iran, holding only slightly lower oil reserves than Iraq. But, above all, option one was the main trigger for the Iraq war. Of more than 80 oilfields discovered in Iraq, only about 21 have been at least partly developed. Despite this, Iraq's proven oil reserves exceed 110bn barrels but its total reserves are likely to be far more, perhaps even 200bn barrels more. This explains US determination to control this fulcrum but it has involved an escalating political, military and economic price that must make this option unsupportable even for the US. An alternative strategy is to take advantage of the rising oil price to develop unconventional oil sources, notably the Athabascan tar sands in Canada and the Venezuelan Orinoco heavy oils. However, the downsides in terms of cost, manpower, water shortages and, above all, CO2, are prohibitive. Cost-wise, the International Energy Agency reckons that investment needed in oil and gas over the next 25 years to meet an expected 50pc increase in global demand, will be $5 trillion, equivalent to more than four times the entire GNP of the UK. The biggest constraint, however, is environmental. It takes almost as much energy to mine, process, refine and upgrade the oil extracted from tar sand as the energy contained in the light oil produced. Worse still, the processing releases five to 10 times more greenhouse gases than a barrel of conventional oil. This is the exact opposite to the scientists' requirement for the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 60pc by 2050. The third option is clearly the right way forward - a new energy world order. The potential for powering the world economy via renewables is almost infinite. Governments should now be switching to this option, far faster and on a far greater scale."
Michael Meacher - Former Blair Minister
Our only hope lies in forging a new energy world order
Daily Telegraph, 26 June 2006

But This Is How Tough It Is Getting
The Fantasy Nuclear Tar Sands 'Solution'

"Nuclear companies and those mining Canada's oil sands are poised to team up to separate crude from deep Earth and pump it to the surface. Reactors are being pushed as a more economical and environmentally friendly alternative to the natural gas now used to fuel oil-sands projects, but the stigma of nuclear energy -- and its ability to do the job -- remain an obstacle. The high price of crude makes oil sands attractive to develop, a process where hydrocarbons mixed with sand, water and clay over millions of years and under the Earth's pressure are extracted, separated, refined to a synthetic oil and sent to market.  'It's quite energy intensive,' Jeffrey Collins, director of Global Oil for Cambridge Energy Research Associates, told United Press International. 'There is still a strong gain positively in terms of the amount of energy you're able to get out of it versus the energy you use.' Canada is the world's seventh-largest oil producer at 3.1 million barrels per day and the No. 1 supplier for the United States. Most of Canada's production is from conventional crude, but 'the vast majority of Canada's reserves are actually in oil sands' in an area the size of Florida, Collins said. More than 1 million bpd of Canada's oil is from sands. That could triple in 10 years. But as sands production increases, so does its demand for energy, mostly supplied by natural gas. The Energy Information Administration, the data arm of the U.S. Energy Department, predicts demand for natural gas in North America alone will increase by 1.1 a year through 2030. Canada's appetite jumped 1.9 percent in 2003. Canada's reserves are the 17th-largest in the world, but the EIA predicts a net decrease in production through 2030.... The World Nuclear Association estimates natural gas is 60 percent of an oil-sands facility's operating costs. But the price of natural gas jumped 6 percent in the past week alone, to $7.56 per thousand cubic feet, down from the $8.51 average last year and well above the $2 levels of the 1980s and 1990s..... There are still a number of roadblocks to clear, at least before Canadian sands are powered by nuclear reactors. Canada's Alberta province, where nearly all its sands are located, has never had any nuclear power. It would likely need the general approval of the community, including a large indigenous population. The Canadian House of Commons' Committee on Natural Resources issued a report this month entitled, 'The Oil Sands: Toward Sustainable Development,' in which it put a hold on nuclear energy 'until the repercussions of this process are fully known and understood.' .... The report cited worries over the waste produced by nuclear plants and questions about nuclear energy's ability to deliver the needed steam. And the committee was uncomfortable not knowing whether the sands would need one or numerous large reactors to power operations, or an even greater number of smaller models. There are two types of oil-sands operations. The more shallow deposits are harvested in a strip-mining-style, where Earth is peeled back and massive trucks and shovels remove the wanted product. It's then super-heated with water or steam, and the molasses or tar-like bitumen is removed. 'Right now mining is the largest component, more than 60 percent of production of oil sands,' Collins said. 'More than 80 percent of global reserves' are too deep for mining 'the low-hanging fruit.' Two primary technologies -- called 'in situ' (Latin for 'in place') -- have been developed for deep extraction. Cyclic Steam Stimulation uses high-pressure steam delivered through pipes to heat up the heavy bitumen, which is brought to the surface. For Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, a method gaining in popularity, Collins said, two parallel pipes are drilled vertically and then jut in a 90-degree angle. The top pipe injects steam, and the one below collects the bitumen and draws it to the surface. Both in situ and surface mining bitumen needs further intensive processing and upgrading so that it is capable of being refined or sent away in a pipeline. A number of nuclear companies, led by Energy Alberta, which has plans to bring two reactors online to power sands operations by 2017, are looking to provide the energy needed for such projects."
Analysis: Nuclear-powered oil sands
United Press International, 30 March 2007

"No decision should be taken on the use of nuclear energy to extract oil from Canada's oil sands until the 'repercussions of this process are fully known and understood', the House of Commons Standing Committee on Natural Resources has recommended. Proponents say that using nuclear energy to produce the steam and electricity required to extract tar-like bitumen from the oil sands cuts carbon dioxide emissions and would be cost competitive with natural gas. It is estimated that a reactor of some 600 MW capacity could supply a processing plant producing 60,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil per day. In its report, the committee concluded that almost 20 such reactors would be needed to meet the production growth planned to 2015, when Canadian output from oil sands is forecast to reach 3 million barrels per day. Smaller reactors, with capacities of some 100 MW, could be more suitable for individual projects, given the limitations of shipping steam, the report said. Hot water can be transported over about 75 km, while steam can only be sent over some 25 km. However, those opposed to the concept of using nuclear plants to power oil sands production raised concerns about dealing with the resulting radioactive waste and the impact on the already depleted water supply. Energy Alberta Corp has proposed a C$5.5 billion ($4.7 billion) project which could see a two-unit Candu plant operate in the north of the province of Alberta to provide elctricity to oil sands operations. The first of the twin reactors could come online by 2016, the second following a year later."
Committee studies nuclear for oil sands
World Nuclear News, 29 March 2007

Dream On!

"Uranium demand is expected to increase by 50% in the next 25 years and will exceed supply within the next decade."
Michael Angwin, executive director of the Australian Uranium Association
Uranium to top $1bn 'by end of decade'
The Australian, 22 March 2007

Peak Oil And Global Warming
How Gordon Brown Blew The North Sea Oil And Gas Legacy

The Bombshell In Gordon Brown's 2007 Budget
That Nearly All The Media Missed

"A £2.8bn black hole in North Sea tax revenues has opened up after Chancellor Gordon Brown was forced to admit he has got his sums badly wrong on last year's controversial raid on oil and gas revenues. Latest projections suggest the Treasury is finally admitting the North Sea's oil and gas reserves are in terminal decline. Brown last year doubled the supplementary tax charge on North Sea companies to 20% which, with existing rates of corporate tax, means the oil and gas companies are paying about half their North Sea revenues in tax. The Chancellor justified the increase on the super-profits being made by the oil companies. But buried in his Pre-Budget Report yesterday was an admission by the Chancellor that there will be a significant shortfall in the forecast tax take, reckoned to be around £2.8bn, next year because the Treasury has misjudged the increasing difficulty and cost of lifting the dwindling North Sea reserves. The report says this year's tax take will be on budget at just over £10bn. But while the oil is trading at $9 a barrel above the Treasury's projections, the 2007-8 take of £10.7bn is 'a much more modest increase than assumed in the Budget 2006 forecast'. The Pre-Budget Report admits to a catalogue of miscalculations, not least a significant drop in North Sea output this year, down 8% in the third quarter of 2006, 38% lower than in 2000. Output is expected to drop by 3% a year until 2011. 'The structural decline since 2000 reflects the rundown of reserves in the North Sea and increasing extraction costs for the remaining oil and gas,' says the report."
The £2.8bn North Sea black hole
Evening Standard, 7 December 2006

"Although Gordon Brown urges the members of the Opec oil producing cartel to increase production to bring down prices, he will be quietly rubbing his hands with glee at the benevolent effect dearer energy is having on the UK's public finances. With all the taxes levied on the North Sea oil and gas industry he, like previous chancellors, stands to make billions from the rise in prices which yesterday saw Brent crude break through the $50 a barrel level for the first time. But Mr Brown should enjoy it while it lasts. The fact is UK oil and gas, which has given a big boost to the economy for the past two and a half decades, is running out fast. At current rates of extraction, the last drop of oil could be sucked out of the North Sea fields in about 10 years' time. Oil output is already down by a quarter since peaking in 1999 at about 2.8m barrels per day (bpd), although the current production of 2.1m bpd is in line with the average of the past 20 years. At the present rate of decline, according to the UK Offshore Operators' Association, the country will cease to be self-sufficient in 2007, production will drop to 1m bpd by 2010 and dry up little more than five years later.... Britain is also running out of gas from the North Sea. Given that a large chunk of the country's electricity generation depends on gas, the shortfall will have to be made up by imports. 'You can see that production levels of oil and gas have dropped sharply over the last two years and that is set to continue, with fundamental consequences for the economy,' says David Page, an economist at Investec bank in the City. He is talking about everything from employment and tax receipts to the balance of payments and the pound.... Oil has kept the British economy lubricated since the late 70s when production started. It has provided tax revenues of almost £200bn over that period in today's prices, equivalent to a fifth of current-day gross domestic product and nearly half of one year's current tax receipts. North Sea tax revenues were about £5bn a year be tween 2000 and 2003, equivalent to nearly 2p off the basic rate of income tax. Mr Brown had pencilled in about £3.6bn of revenues for the current year on the assumption of an average oil price of $31 a barrel for London Brent. But with oil prices having jumped more than 65% since the start of the year, revenues will be nearly double the Treasury's estimate. Last year the oil and gas industry in Britain accounted for about £23bn, or 2.5% of the economy. It directly employed 260,000 people. Britain is still a significant producer of oil and gas. Last year it was the world's 11th largest oil producer and fourth largest gas producer. It has been self-sufficient in oil for the past 20 years and that is likely to continue for another three, at which point the UK will become a net importer. The decline is showing up in data from the Office for National Statistics. Last month it reported a deficit on trade in oil of £61m in July. Although small in terms of Britain's trading position and though it has since been revised to a small surplus, it was the first deficit since August 1991 and alarmed the City and political circles. From now on, monthly oil trade deficits will become a regular feature. As recently as two years ago, a monthly surplus of £500m was the norm."
Britain's bounty is running dry
Guardian, 12 October 2004

UK Treasury Increasingly Strapped For Cash
How Chaos In Iraq Hit BP's Chances Of Replacing Falling North Sea Production
And Why Its Relationship With Tax Hungry New Labour Has Wobbled

"BP employs a focused exploration strategy in areas with the potential for large oil and natural gas fields as new profit centres..... We also manage the decline of our existing profit centres in Alaska, Egypt, Latin America, Middle East, North America gas and the North Sea."
Exploration and Production
BP Annual Review 2006

"Energy giant BP is interested in working on a range of oil and gas projects in Iraq, but is waiting for the country's parliament to pass an oil law and for security to improve before increasing its role, a senior BP executive said on Monday. International companies have been jostling for position as they look for a potentially lucrative stake in Iraq's oil future. The country holds the world's third largest oil reserves and needs billions of dollars of investment to boost output and overhaul ageing infrastructure. 'Eventually where we get involved will be up to Iraq,' Steve Peacock, president of BP's Middle East and South Asia Exploration and Production unit, told reporters at an energy conference in Dubai. 'But I think we can help in all areas: enhanced oil recovery from existing fields, in discovered and not developed fields, or in exploration.' A draft oil law that Iraq's cabinet endorsed in February is awaiting parliament's ratification. Peacock said it would take some time after the law is passed for contracts to be negotiated and for BP to send people to work in Iraq because of the security situation in the country. 'Physical security on the ground... may be the thing that takes the longest,' he said. BP would also wait for assurance that any contracts would survive changes in government, he said. BP has been providing assistance to Iraq's oil company in the south around the Rumaila field, he said. The North and South Rumaila fields are already partially developed and have combined potential output capacity of 500,000 barrels per day. BP would not look at involvement in Iraq's Kurdish region in the north until the oil law had been passed, even though security in the region is better than elsewhere in the country, he said."
BP Eyes Role in Iraq, Awaits Oil Law, Security
Reuters, 16 April 2007

"Lord Browne, chief executive of BP and one of New Labour's favourite industrialists, has warned Washington not to carve up Iraq for its own oil companies in the aftermath of any future war. The comments from the most senior European oil executive.... will ... serve to underline concern that the US is primarily concerned with seizing control of Saddam Hussein's oil and handing it over to companies such as ExxonMobil rather than destroying his weapons of mass destruction..... Lord Browne's views will be listened to carefully in Downing Street because the BP executive team has such close links with the UK government that it was once dubbed Blair Petroleum. A number of former BP executives, such as Lord Simon, have been seconded into Whitehall while one of Mr Blair's personal assistants, Anji Hunter, joined Lord Browne's team. "
BP chief fears US will carve up Iraqi oil riches
Guardian, 30 October 2002

'It's The Money Stupid'
The BP/New Labour Oil Timeline

2007

"BP is Britain's biggest company, the fifth largest in the world. It employs 17,000 people in Britain and contributes £1.3 billion every year in tax revenue. Everyone who owns a car buys BP fuel, and everyone who has a pension fund is likely to be a shareholder. Asked in a recent interview whether there was anyone in Britain more powerful than him, Gordon Brown named four men, all businessmen. First on his list was Lord Browne, until this week boss of BP, ennobled by this Government in 2001 and dubbed the Sun King for the way he had built BP into an industry giant..... Four months ago, this newspaper was approached by Lord Browne's former lover, a young Canadian called Jeff Chevalier. We were told by him that, despite being honoured in public and befriended in private by the Chancellor, Lord Browne thought the Government's taxes on business so damaging that he had to consider drastic changes in the way BP operated. According to Mr Chevalier, Lord Browne threatened to move BP's headquarters abroad. If carried out, such a move would be devastating, not only for the Government's tax revenues but for the tens of thousands of highly-paid jobs an international business such as BP sustains when headquartered in Britain. This was a business story of great significance - but obviously Mr Chevalier's account had to be checked, and calls were put in to BP, outlining what he was saying. The first response came from a public relations consultant working directly for Lord Browne. He told us that while Mr Chevalier had been Lord Browne's lover, it was completely untrue that Lord Browne had made the alleged threat, and in any case Lord Browne never, ever discussed business matters with Mr Chevalier. At 10am the following morning, The Mail on Sunday's Political Editor took a phone call from BP's highly respected public relations chief. His message was the exact opposite: of course BP had looked at the problem Mr Chevalier outlined, nor should we forget that at the time of Lord Browne's threat the Government was contemplating a windfall tax on North Sea oil profits.... Neither PR man made any issue of Lord Browne's homosexuality, which was well-known in the world of business and politics. Neither was it to be the focus of our story beyond sufficient reference to explain how a 27-year-old Canadian had been privy to such information. We cleared space for a story which would report Mr Chevalier's claims, reflect the fact that there appeared to be conflict within BP over how to respond and include information on other major companies facing the same problem as BP and considering meeting it in the same way. What we did not know was that someone had advised Lord Browne to go to a firm of showbiz lawyers called Schillings, who represent, among others, Caprice, Naomi Campbell and Wayne Rooney, and who have built a lucrative industry in attempting to suppress embarrassing stories with Saturday afternoon injunctions.... BP's original argument that Mr Chevalier had lied about Lord Browne's threat to relocate BP headquarters had been undermined by their own contradictory briefing. So now they would argue that, because Lord Browne's relationship with Mr Chevalier was private, anything that passed between them was also private. Lord Browne then set about trying to destroy the credibility of his former lover as a witness. It was this which would lead to his sexuality being revealed by the courts, and to his resignation.... He produced a laptop Lord Browne had given him, opened it up, and sure enough it declared it was the property of BP and contained three months of Lord Browne's confidential company email traffic."
Privacy, and the perils of secret justice
Mail On Sunday, 6 May 2007

"Although there are plenty who complain that it is only shareholders who have been enriched, it is important to remember that one pound in every eight that is paid into UK pension funds by UK companies comes from BP. It is still also one of Britain's biggest taxpayers, despite the decline in North Sea oil production. Lord Browne's apparently infallible touch earned him the soubriquet of the Sun King and the title of world's most admired businessman for many years."
The Big Question: Did Lord Browne deserve to be the world's most admired businessman?
Independent, 3 May 3007

"Tony Hayward, Lord Browne's replacement, will present his plans for a reshuffle of the top team at BP when he attends his first board meeting as chief executive in Washington next week. After the traumatic departure of Lord Browne on Tuesday, at the end of a year of deteriorating morale at one of Britain’s biggest companies, Mr Hayward is looking to refresh the executive leadership and reassert a focus on safety. Mr Hayward’s first week in the chief executive’s job is expected to include a meeting with President Bush in the US capital....In his presentation to the board, Mr Hayward will also emphasise continuity with key strategies set down by Lord Browne. Among other things, BP will remain a British company. BP has mulled the idea of moving its domicile from the UK to the US, but concluded that, regardless of the arguable tax benefits, it would lose its status as a flag-carrying energy company, for ever eclipsed by Exxon Mobil."
Chairman stays as Hayward plans top BP changes
London Times, 3 May 2007

"The final months of Lord Browne's dozen-year tenure at the top of BP are set to go with a whimper rather than a bang after the company's slowing production led to a dive in profits in the first quarter of 2007. The oil major today reported a 17% slump in profits to $4.36bn (£2.2bn) from $5.2bn in the first three months of 2006. Amid BP's high-profile problems in which it has been accused of complacency over safety after the fatal Texas City oil refinery explosion and over the environment after spills on the Alaskan tundra at Prudhoe Bay, BP's figures today also revealed how badly it is being hit by the more fundamental operational worry of falling production. BP said: 'This result was impacted by lower oil and gas realisations and lower reported volumes.' BP also revealed that its cashflows for the three months are down 10% to $8bn and that's its net debt of $21.8bn had grown as a ratio of the entire value of the company to 20% from 16%."
BP on slide as Browne heads for exit
Evening Standard, 24 April 2007

"BP Slashed its growth targets yesterday as the oil major unveiled falling fourth-quarter profits that failed to prevent it boosting annual profits 15 per cent to a record $22.3 billion (£11.3bn). Lord Browne, in his last annual results before stepping down as chief executive this July, said production would fall in 2007 and only grow slightly to the end of the decade. That compared with earlier forecasts of growth at 4 per cent per annum. BP forecast production in 2007 would fall to 3.8-3.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) from 3.93 million boepd in 2006. The 2006 result was down 2 per cent on 2005.... Hayward said factors affecting BP's 'new conservative production guidance' included more focus on safety investment, and production problems ranging from the North Sea to Alaska. "
BP growth to fall but profits soar 15%
The Scotsman, 7 February 2007

"BP's domination of oil exploration on Alaska's North Slope, allowed it to become a giant which challenged Exxon and its main European rival Royal Dutch Shell for global hegemony. Not just satisfied with securing the American market place, BP concluded a landmark partnership deal in Russia giving it access through the TNK-BP partnership to one of the most valuable oilfields in the world. When [Browne presented bumper results to the world a year ago he was able to make the astonishing and true claim that one pound in every six paid into pension funds and insurance companies in Britain, came from investments in BP. Moreover, it was also the nation's biggest taxpayer helping to support the public services and the New Labour administration with which he was intimately involved. Since the high point of early 2006 Browne's world has come tumbling down around him."
Business genius who lost the Midas touch
Daily Mail, 2 May 2007

"Our forecasts of the current balance from 2007-08 to 2011-12 are affected by one major change in the last year - the sharply lower levels of production and yet higher costs in the North Sea - which have this year reduced tax revenues from £13 billion to £8 billion and for each year into the future cut them by an average of £4 billion a year."
Gordon Brown's 2007 budget
Reuters, 21 March 2007

"Energy giant BP is interested in working on a range of oil and gas projects in Iraq, but is waiting for the country's parliament to pass an oil law and for security to improve before increasing its role, a senior BP executive said on Monday. International companies have been jostling for position as they look for a potentially lucrative stake in Iraq's oil future. The country holds the world's third largest oil reserves and needs billions of dollars of investment to boost output and overhaul ageing infrastructure. 'Eventually where we get involved will be up to Iraq,' Steve Peacock, president of BP's Middle East and South Asia Exploration and Production unit, told reporters at an energy conference in Dubai. 'But I think we can help in all areas: enhanced oil recovery from existing fields, in discovered and not developed fields, or in exploration.' A draft oil law that Iraq's cabinet endorsed in February is awaiting parliament's ratification. Peacock said it would take some time after the law is passed for contracts to be negotiated and for BP to send people to work in Iraq because of the security situation in the country. 'Physical security on the ground... may be the thing that takes the longest,' he said. BP would also wait for assurance that any contracts would survive changes in government, he said. BP has been providing assistance to Iraq's oil company in the south around the Rumaila field, he said. The North and South Rumaila fields are already partially developed and have combined potential output capacity of 500,000 barrels per day. BP would not look at involvement in Iraq's Kurdish region in the north until the oil law had been passed, even though security in the region is better than elsewhere in the country, he said."
BP Eyes Role in Iraq, Awaits Oil Law, Security
Reuters, 16 April 2007

"So was this what the Iraq war was fought for, after all? As the number of US soldiers killed since the invasion rises past the 3,000 mark, and President George Bush gambles on sending in up to 30,000 more troops, The Independent on Sunday has learnt that the Iraqi government is about to push through a law giving Western oil companies the right to exploit the country's massive oil reserves. And Iraq's oil reserves, the third largest in the world, with an estimated 115 billion barrels waiting to be extracted, are a prize worth having. As Vice-President Dick Cheney noted in 1999, when he was still running Halliburton, an oil services company, the Middle East is the key to preventing the world running out of oil. Now, unnoticed by most amid the furore over civil war in Iraq and the hanging of Saddam Hussein, the new oil law has quietly been going through several drafts, and is now on the point of being presented to the cabinet and then the parliament in Baghdad. Its provisions are a radical departure from the norm for developing countries: under a system known as 'production-sharing agreements', or PSAs, oil majors such as BP and Shell in Britain, and Exxon and Chevron in the US, would be able to sign deals of up to 30 years to extract Iraq's oil.... Britain and the US have always hotly denied that the war was fought for oil...."
Blood and oil: How the West will profit from Iraq's most precious commodity
Independent, 7 January 2007

2006

"The UK became a net importer of oil for most of 2006, according to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in Aberdeen. 'It is time for the UK government to let go of the idea that the UK will be a net oil exporter until 2010 and accept we are now dependent on imports,' ODAC said.  Data published by the UK Department for Trade and Industry showed that the UK imported oil during every month in 2006 except for June.... Crude oil production in the UK in 2006 was an estimated 1.6 million b/d, while consumption was an estimated 1.7 million b/d."
ODAC: UK was net oil importer in 2006
Oil and Gas Journal, 13 March 2007

"A £2.8bn black hole in North Sea tax revenues has opened up after Chancellor Gordon Brown was forced to admit he has got his sums badly wrong on last year's controversial raid on oil and gas revenues. Latest projections suggest the Treasury is finally admitting the North Sea's oil and gas reserves are in terminal decline. Brown last year doubled the supplementary tax charge on North Sea companies to 20% which, with existing rates of corporate tax, means the oil and gas companies are paying about half their North Sea revenues in tax. The Chancellor justified the increase on the super-profits being made by the oil companies. But buried in his Pre-Budget Report yesterday was an admission by the Chancellor that there will be a significant shortfall in the forecast tax take, reckoned to be around £2.8bn, next year because the Treasury has misjudged the increasing difficulty and cost of lifting the dwindling North Sea reserves. The report says this year's tax take will be on budget at just over £10bn. But while the oil is trading at $9 a barrel above the Treasury's projections, the 2007-8 take of £10.7bn is 'a much more modest increase than assumed in the Budget 2006 forecast'. The Pre-Budget Report admits to a catalogue of miscalculations, not least a significant drop in North Sea output this year, down 8% in the third quarter of 2006, 38% lower than in 2000. Output is expected to drop by 3% a year until 2011. 'The structural decline since 2000 reflects the rundown of reserves in the North Sea and increasing extraction costs for the remaining oil and gas,' says the report."
The £2.8bn North Sea black hole
Evening Standard, 7 December 2006

"Yet again, Gordon Brown has to had to tell us there is less tax revenue coming in than he had forecast. That's the ninth budget or pre-Budget in a row that this has happened. The only difference to the previous eight is that this time, few of us had expected him to have to break bad news. It turns out, though, that £3bn worth of revenues expected from North Sea oil are not there. That's three billion the chancellor couldn't afford to lose. As a result of that, Mr Brown has had to make a modest tax increase. The overall net tax rise is £2bn a year."
Revenue gloom forces Brown's hand
BBC Online, 6 December 2006

"BP served up more bad news for investors yesterday in a third-quarter trading statement that showed production was down, refining margins had slumped and the company had paid more tax.... The third frustration for the BP chief executive, Lord Browne, had been the chancellor's North Sea taxes. Gordon Brown raised oil company taxes in his pre-budget statement last year, pushing BP's rate up from 35% to 40%."
Falling oil prices and higher tax take add to BP's woes
Guardian, 5 October 2006

"Research from nef (the new economics foundation) and WWF reveals that although the UK Treasury is still dependent on oil, as domestic supplies dwindle, the opportunity is slipping away to invest prudently the sector’s windfall profits.  The briefing, Hooked on oil: breaking the habit with a windfall tax, for the first time quantifies Treasury revenue from a range of oil-and gas-specific taxes and duties.  This reveals that, in Britain, around £1 in every £12 of government income comes from the oil and gas sector.  The briefing asks whether with so much income from fossil fuels, there is a powerful short-term disincentive to ‘kick the fossil fuel habit.’.... Unlike Britain, Norway understood that the windfall wealth from its accidental inheritance wouldn’t last forever.   It prudently set up a substantial fund to invest oil surpluses to ensure that future generations would benefit once the oil was gone."
‘Windfall tax’ call on oil companies as profits announced
New Economics Foundation, 23 October 2006

"Activists from the Hands Off Iraqi Oil campaign today delivered a warning to oil company BP that it will face massive public outrage if it continues in its attempts to 'rip off' Iraqi oil. They were demonstrating at the company's Annual General Meeting in London's Docklands against the role BP has played in lobbying for a controversial new oil law in Iraq. The law would transfer control over the majority of the country's huge oil reserves from the public sector to multinational companies, for the first time in 35 years. BP has been at the forefront of efforts to gain access to Iraq's oil since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. - In 2003 and 2004, successive BP executives left to work as oil advisers to the occupation authorities in Iraq, paid for by the UK government. - One of these advisers wrote a 'Code of Practice' for the Iraqi Oil Ministry, which called for multinational companies to play the major role in developing Iraq's oil, and for the Ministry's policies to be compatible with those of BP. - Since 2003, BP has also been one of six major oil companies working through a lobbying organisation called the International Tax and Investment Centre (ITIC) to push for the handover of control of Iraq's oil to transnational oil companies. - Together with the other major oil companies, and the British government, they have pushed the Iraqi government to agree to allow companies to take control of Iraqi oil production through controversial long-term contracts known as 'production sharing agreements'."
BP warned against Iraq oil 'rip-off' at AGM
Platform, 12 April 2006

2005

"Chancellor Gordon Brown has announced a rise in the tax levied on North Sea oil producers in the wake of record crude prices. Under the measure, the government's supplementary charge on energy companies will rise to 20% from 10%.... Economists at Deloitte said the increase was double the 5% they had expected and would raise £1.4bn for the Treasury's coffers next year and £5.2bn by the end of 2008.... The oil industry lobby group, the UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA), said it was 'shocked' by the chancellor's decision. 'At a single stroke, the Treasury has rewritten the industry's future. It will severely undermine business confidence,' warned the UKOOA chief executive, Malcolm Webb. 'This has been done not once but twice in the space of just three years and we fear that this time the North Sea will not be as resilient.' The rise could cost BP alone £400m a year, analysts said, if the oil price stands at about $60 a barrel. 'Governments levy taxes and we will do what we have to,' said a BP spokesman. 'But any extra tax that we pay is money that is no longer available for investment in North Sea oil and gas fields.'... The new tax rise will take effect from 1 January 2006."
Brown doubles North Sea oil tax
BBC Online, 5 December 2005

"At the time it all seemed too much - too plainly far-fetched - for Jeff Chevalier to take in. But here he was, a 25-year-old once-penniless Canadian male prostitute, sitting down to dinner with the Prime Minister of Great Britain. And the two men were liberally helping themselves from a £3,000 bottle of claret. The wine was the personal choice of Lord Browne of Madingley - the boss of British Petroleum, Britain's most senior businessman and host of the dinner party in question. 'Mr Blair didn't know what it was but he absolutely loved it,' Mr Chevalier recalls. 'It was a 1983 French claret.'... The cosy dinner for Tony Blair in the summer of 2005 came amid a seemingly endless merry-go-round of dinners, lunches, soirees and parties that Mr Chevalier was summoned to by his tycoon lover, 34 years his senior..... Today, in an exclusive interview in The Mail on Sunday, Jeff Chevalier gives a stunning account of the extravagance of life at the top of BP. His testimony will raise important questions about Lord Browne's taste for the high life - together with his eagerness to lavish company largesse on his young lover, and the access that Mr Chevalier was thereby granted to privileged information.... The Mail on Sunday is prohibited by court order from disclosing the details of Lord Browne's dinner-table conversation with the Prime Minister. This is a shame, since the encounter casts revealing light on the two men - and on the overlap that exists between their business and their personal relationships. Both pre-eminent in their fields, they made use of each other for the benefit of their respective organisations - and then, perhaps, for the benefit of themselves. We can say, however, that Mr Blair was in reflective mood, and mused on life after Downing Street. Lord Browne listened sympathetically and offered suggestions. The dinner took place just a few days before Mr Blair and his wife Cherie flew off to Singapore for some last-minute championing for London to host the 2012 Olympic Games. Cherie did not attend the meal. But Anji Hunter, who had been Tony Blair's 'gatekeeper' before leaving to work for Lord Browne at BP, was invited..... [On another occasion] A dinner and lunch guest was Peter Mandelson, a former Cabinet member and now a European Union Trade Commissioner. He arrived for dinner with his own long-time partner, Brazilian Reinaldo da Silva. Mr Chevalier recalls: 'There were only the four of us and I remember thinking the moment I met them what an odd couple they were. Peter was very smooth and charming, appearing to hang on John's every word.' The non-stop socialising was part of the corporate culture instilled at BP by Lord Browne. It seemed, too, that the peer was not above using the prestige of BP to get privileged treatment for himself.... According to Mr Chevalier, Lord Browne also saw his friendships in terms of people he could derive mutual business benefit from."
The True story about Lord Browne - by ex-rent boy lover
Mail On Sunday, 6 May 2007

2004

"BP's chief executive delivered a serious setback to hopes of rebuilding Iraq when he said that the oil company has no future there. John Browne, one of Tony Blair's favourite industrialists, indicated he had given up on Iraq because the political and security situation in the country had deteriorated so much. Yet only 18 months ago he was extremely enthusiastic about prospects, lobbying in Washington and London to ensure American rivals did not cut him out of the action.... The pessimistic view about the future in Iraq was expressed hours after Lord Browne had met the prime minister at the launch of a new climate change organisation.The downbeat message contrasts with the optimism expressed in the autumn of 2002 when the BP chief was desperately worried that American firms would monopolise Iraq once Saddam Hussein was overthrown. 'We have let it be known that the thing we would like to make sure, if Iraq changes regime, is that there should be a level playing field,' Lord Browne had said. Western oil firms originally hoped there would be a bonanza as the country with the second biggest oil reserves in the world expanded its production dramatically. But these aspirations have evaporated as the hopes of peace following invasion by American and British forces have given way to ferocious guerrilla attacks."
BP ready to quit in blow to rebuilding hopes
Guardian, 29 April 2004

"Although Gordon Brown urges the members of the Opec oil producing cartel to increase production to bring down prices, he will be quietly rubbing his hands with glee at the benevolent effect dearer energy is having on the UK's public finances. With all the taxes levied on the North Sea oil and gas industry he, like previous chancellors, stands to make billions from the rise in prices which yesterday saw Brent crude break through the $50 a barrel level for the first time. But Mr Brown should enjoy it while it lasts. The fact is UK oil and gas, which has given a big boost to the economy for the past two and a half decades, is running out fast. At current rates of extraction, the last drop of oil could be sucked out of the North Sea fields in about 10 years' time. Oil output is already down by a quarter since peaking in 1999 at about 2.8m barrels per day (bpd), although the current production of 2.1m bpd is in line with the average of the past 20 years. At the present rate of decline, according to the UK Offshore Operators' Association, the country will cease to be self-sufficient in 2007, production will drop to 1m bpd by 2010 and dry up little more than five years later.... Britain is also running out of gas from the North Sea. Given that a large chunk of the country's electricity generation depends on gas, the shortfall will have to be made up by imports. 'You can see that production levels of oil and gas have dropped sharply over the last two years and that is set to continue, with fundamental consequences for the economy,' says David Page, an economist at Investec bank in the City. He is talking about everything from employment and tax receipts to the balance of payments and the pound.... Oil has kept the British economy lubricated since the late 70s when production started. It has provided tax revenues of almost £200bn over that period in today's prices, equivalent to a fifth of current-day gross domestic product and nearly half of one year's current tax receipts. North Sea tax revenues were about £5bn a year be tween 2000 and 2003, equivalent to nearly 2p off the basic rate of income tax. Mr Brown had pencilled in about £3.6bn of revenues for the current year on the assumption of an average oil price of $31 a barrel for London Brent. But with oil prices having jumped more than 65% since the start of the year, revenues will be nearly double the Treasury's estimate. Last year the oil and gas industry in Britain accounted for about £23bn, or 2.5% of the economy. It directly employed 260,000 people. Britain is still a significant producer of oil and gas. Last year it was the world's 11th largest oil producer and fourth largest gas producer. It has been self-sufficient in oil for the past 20 years and that is likely to continue for another three, at which point the UK will become a net importer. The decline is showing up in data from the Office for National Statistics. Last month it reported a deficit on trade in oil of £61m in July. Although small in terms of Britain's trading position and though it has since been revised to a small surplus, it was the first deficit since August 1991 and alarmed the City and political circles. From now on, monthly oil trade deficits will become a regular feature. As recently as two years ago, a monthly surplus of £500m was the norm."
Britain's bounty is running dry
Guardian, 12 October 2004

2003

"The Bush administration made plans for war and for Iraq's oil before the  9/11 attacks, sparking a policy battle between neo-cons and Big Oil, BBC's Newsnight has revealed..... Two years ago today - when President George Bush announced US, British and  Allied forces would begin to bomb Baghdad - protesters claimed the US had a secret plan for Iraq's oil once Saddam had been conquered. In fact there were two conflicting plans, setting off a hidden policy war between neo-conservatives at the Pentagon, on one side, versus a combination of 'Big Oil' executives and US State Department 'pragmatists'. 'Big Oil' appears to have won. The latest plan, obtained by Newsnight from the US State Department was, we learned, drafted with the help of American oil industry consultants. Insiders told Newsnight that planning began 'within weeks' of Bush's first taking office in 2001, long before the September 11th attack on the US....The industry-favoured plan was pushed aside by a secret plan, drafted just before the invasion in 2003, which called for the sell-off of all of Iraq's oil fields. The new plan was crafted by neo-conservatives intent on using Iraq's oil to destroy the Opec cartel through massive increases in production above Opec quotas. The sell-off was given the green light in a secret meeting in London headed  by Ahmed Chalabi shortly after the US entered Baghdad, according to Robert Ebel. Mr Ebel, a former Energy and CIA oil analyst, now a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told Newsnight he flew to the London meeting at the request of the State Department.....Philip Carroll, the former CEO of Shell Oil USA who took control of Iraq's oil production for the US Government a month after the invasion, stalled the sell-off scheme.... Ariel Cohen, of the neo-conservative Heritage Foundation, told Newsnight that an opportunity had been missed to privatise Iraq's oil fields..... New plans, obtained from the State Department by Newsnight and Harper's Magazine under the US Freedom of Information Act, called for creation of a state-owned oil company favoured by the US oil industry. It was completed in January 2004 under the guidance of Amy Jaffe of the James Baker Institute in Texas. Formerly US Secretary of State, Baker is now an attorney representing Exxon-Mobil and the Saudi Arabian government.... "
Secret US plans for Iraq's oil
BBC News, 17 March 2005

"A few years ago, many thought the North Sea to be in terminal decline – at least from the point of view of the Supermajors as they looked to manage their exit from the North Sea. A new breed of low cost operators had begun to move in and take on this ageing asset base which was failing to attract the level of investment required to sustain production. Never was this more visible than when BP sold their iconic operating stake in the Forties field to Apache for $1.3b in early 2003."
United Kingdom: Back To The Future - Exploring The Options For The 21st Century North Sea
Deloitte, 2 May 2007

"Energy giant BP has moved to boost profit margins at the expense of volumes after announcing the sale of the Forties field, one of the oldest in the North Sea, and a swathe of small Gulf of Mexico assets to US independent producer Apache, for US$1.3 billion (£810 million). The sale, which brings Apache into the North Sea for the first time and boosts its overall output by 29 per cent, is part of BP’s ongoing review of operations announced last year after the company suffered the embarrassment of downgrading its production growth expectations. Completion of the deal is expected in the first half of this year. Forties is still the largest UK find ever made and dates back to 1970. It once peaked at 500,000 barrels per day, but its production is now about 48,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, less than 6.5 per cent of BP’s North Sea output."
BP's Forties field sold for £810m
The Scotsman, 14 January 2003

"Tony Blair held a private dinner with Lord Browne one month after he was reelected in 2005, in which he discussed life after Downing Street, it emerged yesterday. Despite pledging at the general election to serve for a full third term, the Prime Minister was already talking to his closest City confidants about life after politics. Earlier this year rumours surfaced in the City that Mr Blair may join BP after leaving Downing Street or start a venture capital company with Lord Browne. Neither side has commented on these suggestions. Whether or not such plans were discussed, the meeting underscores the connections between the Prime Minister and Lord Browne. Indeed it was organised by Anji Hunter, Mr Blair’s closest aide, who left Downing Street to work for BP in late 2003....."
BP was nicknamed ‘Blair Petroleum’
London Times, 2 May 2007

"British oil company BP PLC has put a team to work on a strategy for its future in oil-rich Iraq, people familiar with the situation said Tuesday. The news follows a meeting in London at the weekend where Iraqi exiles and U.S. state department officials agreed that international oil firms should take a leading postwar role in reviving Iraq's oil industry. Oil companies and the U.S. and British governments have been unwilling to talk openly about the future of the oil industry in Iraq. They fear fueling accusations that the invasion of the country by U.S. and British troops was motivated by a desire to get western hands on the world's second largest reserves of crude. But concerns are already growing among European companies that a U.S.-dominated postwar administration will give first bite of the Iraq oil cherry to its own companies. In February this year, as war clouds gathered, BP Chief Executive John Browne voiced those concerns, saying: 'The most important thing for us is that there remains a level playing field when it comes to consideration for activity in Iraq.' And BP, the world's third largest oil company whose links to Iraq oil date back to the 1920s, does not plan to be caught off guard if oil contracts and concessions are to be handed out.  'There has been a team working on Iraq for some time now in BP,' said one source. Another said the team's activities were largely limited to 'exchanges of information and keeping a watching brief on developments.'"
BP maps out Iraq strategy
Reuters, 9 April 2003

".... our energy system faces new challenges.... Our energy supplies will increasingly depend on imported gas and oil..... we need access to a wide range of energy sources."
British Prime Minister
Foreword to DTI Energy White Paper, February 2003

"The prime minister, Tony Blair and Russian president Vladimir Putin were closely involved in the signing of this week's groundbreaking deal between BP and TNK. The successful conclusion of the merger helped to heal memories of a dispute which opened up when Mr Blair personally intervened in a wrangle BP was having in Russia. All of this underlines the close links between Big Oil and politics, while confirming more particularly the way Mr Blair and BP have a working arrangement that has led to the company being dubbed 'Blair Petroleum'. A Downing Street spokesman confirmed that Mr Blair had discussed the $6.75bn (£4.2bn) merger move by BP - the biggest foreign investment in Russia's history. 'Since the first meeting between the two men in St Petersburg in 2000 they have both been committed to forging closer and more successful business links between Britain and Russia so it is not surprising that this deal was discussed,' he said. More surprising to many observers was that Mr Blair wrote a personal letter just over three years ago to Russian president Vladimir Putin arguing the case of BP when it was mired in a legal battle over Sidanco with the same Alfa Group it now calls a partner. Mr Blair, in the letter to Mr Putin, describes BP's assets as 'an important British interest in Russia' and claims BP has a 'global reputation for integrity'. He points out he is taking a 'close personal interest' in the dispute and ends the letter, dated September 7 1999, warning: 'The case is being closely followed by other major foreign investors in Russia and will be critical to future in-flows of foreign direct investment, so vital to Russian economic revival.' BP declined to say whether it had asked Mr Blair to intervene. 'You will have to ask Number 10 why they sent it,' said a company spokesman."
Prime minister argues case for 'Blair Petroleum'
Guardian, 13 February 2003

2002
(MI6 - Aka BP, Aka 'Blair's Petroleum' - Lied To Hoon)

"But Geoff Hoon, who was defense secretary in Prime Minister Tony Blair's government from 1999 until 2005, said intelligence officials had believed Saddam was amassing weapons of mass destruction and that the allies did not lie about why they went to war..... Hoon defended the decision to go to war on the basis of intelligence that believed Iraq was building up an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction — intelligence he now accepts was wrong. 'I've been present at a number of meetings where the intelligence community was fixed, and looked in the eye and asked are you absolutely sure about this? And the answer came back  'Yes, absolutely sure,' Hoon was quoted as saying. Hoon said he felt no need to apologize."
Cheney Iraq role reviewed in Britain
Associated Press, 2 May 2007

"A second senior MI6 officer is resigning in a shake-up of the top ranks of Britain's secret intelligence service, the Guardian has learned. MI6's director of operations, who cannot be named for reasons of personal security, is to take up a job in the City. He follows Mark Allen, the director responsible for anti-terrorism, who left in the summer to join BP."
Another top MI6 officer quits
Guardian, 6 December 2004

"A retired MI6 officer has been appointed to a top post at BP-Amoco, the British-based oil company..... John Gerson was director of security and public affairs at the agency and was embroiled in attempts to suppress disclosures by the former MI6 officer Richard Tomlinson. Mr Gerson took early retirement from what was effectively the post of deputy head of MI6 at the end of last year. Last month he became one of BP's vice-presidents for government and public affairs. His appointment was approved by the cabinet secretary, Sir Richard Wilson. MI6 has close links with oil companies, the 'revolving door' syndrome, in the same way as armed forces officers have close links with defence companies. Rolls-Royce has employed former MI6 officers to help win contracts in the Middle East, and merchant banks have taken some on. During the first reading of the intelligence services bill, Lord Mackay, the conservative lord chancellor, told peers in 1994 that MI6 protected the 'economic wellbeing' of the country by keeping 'a particular eye on Britain's access to key commodities, like oil...'"
Former MI6 officer gets top post at BP
Guardian, 8 May 2000

"The choice of Iyad Allawi, closely linked to the CIA and formerly to MI6, as the Prime Minister of Iraq from 30 June will make it difficult for the US and Britain to persuade the rest of the world that he is capable of leading an independent government. He is the person through whom the controversial claim was channeled that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction could be operational in 45 minutes.... After the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraq National Accord (INA) party, which he helped to found, became one of the building blocks for the Iraqi opposition in exile. The organization attracted former Iraqi army officers and Baath party officials, particularly Sunni Arabs, fleeing Iraq. In the mid-1990s the INA claimed to have extensive contacts in the Iraqi officer corps. Dr Allawi began to move from the orbit of MI6 to the CIA. He persuaded his new masters that he was in a position to organize a military coup in Baghdad."
Exiled Allawi was Responsible for 45-Minute WMD Claim
Independent, 29 May 2004

"As the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, was once again forced to defend the justification for going to war, the Iraqi exile group in London which claims to have supplied MI6 with the intelligence about Saddam's 45-minute capability admitted that the information might have been completely untrue. Nick Theros, the Washington representative of Iyad Allawi, who headed the Iraqi National Accord in exile, said it was raw intelligence from a single source, part of a large amount of information passed on by the INA to MI6. He told the Guardian: 'We were passing it on in good faith. It was for the intelligence services to verify it.'... The claim that Saddam could deploy chemical or biological weapons within 45 minutes was highlighted by Tony Blair's preface to the dossier issued by the government in September 2002 in the run-up to the war..... But Mr Theros said the information now seemed to be a 'crock of sh**'. 'Clearly we have not found WMD,' he said. Mr Theros works with his father, a former US ambassador, to promote the political affairs of Mr Allawi, who is now a member of the Iraqi governing council in Baghdad. He said the Iraqi officer who claims to have been the original source of the intelligence had in fact never seen inside the purported chemical weapons crates upon which his 45-minute claim was based. The former INA spy, who calls himself Lieutenant Colonel al-Dabbagh, although this is not his full name, is now said to be 'in hiding'. At the time, he says, he commanded a frontline unit. He told the Sunday Telegraph and NBC television that before the September 2002 dossier was published he smuggled out sketchy intelligence about WMD to MI6 via a general in Baghdad working for the INA...... Sir Richard Dearlove, head of MI6, did not deny in evidence to the Hutton inquiry that the intelligence for the 45-minute WMD claim came second-hand from a single source who was a senior Iraqi army officer."
Iraqi who gave MI6 45-minute claim says it was untrue
Guardian, 27 January 2004

"Lord Browne, chief executive of BP and one of New Labour's favourite industrialists, has warned Washington not to carve up Iraq for its own oil companies in the aftermath of any future war. The comments from the most senior European oil executive.... will ... serve to underline concern that the US is primarily concerned with seizing control of Saddam Hussein's oil and handing it over to companies such as ExxonMobil rather than destroying his weapons of mass destruction..... Lord Browne's views will be listened to carefully in Downing Street because the BP executive team has such close links with the UK government that it was once dubbed Blair Petroleum. A number of former BP executives, such as Lord Simon, have been seconded into Whitehall while one of Mr Blair's personal assistants, Anji Hunter, joined Lord Browne's team."
BP chief fears US will carve up Iraqi oil riches
Guardian, 30 October 2002

"[BP's] Lord Browne's said that most exploration for new supplies had halted [in Iraq] when the Iraqis nationalised their industry.... he believed there was a plenty of oil and gas waiting to be discovered in Iraq and that BP should be in prime position to capitalise [after a war with Iraq] because it had found most of the country's oil before being thrown out in the 1970s...."
BP chief fears US will carve up Iraqi oil riches
Guardian, 30 October 2002

"While the days of ownership have long past, BP's ties with the British government are still so close that rivals call it 'Blair Petroleum'...One Whitehall insider says there is a 'meeting of minds' between Tony Blair and Browne, who is a regular visitor to Downing Street. Both men admire the other's leadership... This rapport is reinforced by the presence on Browne's staff of former New Labour officials still close to Number 10. Anji Hunter, Blair's childhood friend and former special assistant, is Browne's director of communications. Nick Butler, strategic policy adviser, is a former Labour candidate and friend of Jonathan Powell, Blair's chief of staff... Browne has encouraged BP managers to make use of secondment programmes to ministries, mostly the Department of Trade and Industry, but also the Foreign Office and Treasury. There are four BP employees at the DTI. "
Oiling the political engine
Financial Times, 2 August 2002

"Fuel is our economic lifeblood. The price of oil can be the difference between recession and recovery. The western world is import dependent. ....So: who develops oil and gas, what the new potential sources of supply are, is a vital strategic question...The Middle East, we focus on naturally."
Prime Minister's speech at the George Bush Senior Presidential Library, Texas
10 Downing St, 7 April 2002

2001
(New Labour Gets Closer To The BP Cash Cow)

"Lord Browne took over at BP, nicknamed 'Blair Petroleum' on account of its intense new Labour contacts, in 1995, one year after Mr Blair became the opposition leader. [Lord Browne] was knighted in 1998 and made a life peer by Mr Blair in 2001. The friendship and cooperation has been close."
BP was nicknamed ‘Blair Petroleum’
London Times, 2 May 2007

"The UK oil giant BP made a profit of £9.75bn ($14.2bn) in 2000. Shell and Exxon Mobil have also seen profits hit record levels. With this in mind Chancellor Gordon Brown is considering moves to introduce a windfall tax to stop oil companies from profiteering."
Petrol profits: Should there be a windfall tax?
BBC Online, 16 February 2001

"The woman seen as Prime Minister Tony Blair's closest and most trusted aide is to leave the government for a job at oil giant BP.... [Anji Hunter] has been a permanent fixture at the prime minister's side since he first became Labour leader in 1994 ...[and] is widely seen as the prime minister's door keeper..."
Blair's closest aide resigns
BBC Online, 8 November 2001

"Anji Hunter will be among New Labour friends when she starts her new job as director of communications at BP - nicknamed Blair Petroleum for its close links with the government. The chief executive John Browne is close to the prime minister and a grateful Mr Blair added a peerage to the oilman's knighthood after he helped end the fuel protests of summer last year. Ms Hunter knows Lord Browne well from his frequent trips to No 10 and she is on first name terms with Nick Butler, an unofficial Blairite adviser who is the oil giant's policy chief....Barely a month after Peter Mandelson was forced to quit as trade and industry secretary over his secret £373,000 cheap home loan from Geoffrey Robinson, BP paid his hotel and travel expenses to a conference in Paris, according to the register of members' interests...BP and Labour point out the company also has close ties with some leading Tories; both the former chancellor Lord Howe and the ex-foreign office minister Lord Garel-Jones bank cheques as advisers. Nevertheless, BP appears to have been embraced by the New Labour establishment and is thought to be the government's favourite oil giant."
Among friends at 'Blair Petroleum'
Guardian, 9 November 2001

2000

"The 2000 Budget could mark a watershed in the relations between the Labour Party and the business community.... The CBI has also joined in criticism of the government for boosting taxes on companies' foreign earnings, which some big firms say will cost them billions of pounds..... Many prominent Labour business supporters have now left the government, or their businesses.... Prominent businessmen Lord Simon of BP, and Geoffrey Robinson have both left the government...."
Budget alienates business
BBC Online, 29 March 2000

1999

"As far back as 1999, he had Iraq on his mind. In a speech in Chicago at the height of the Kosovo crisis, Blair explicitly linked Milosevic with Saddam Hussein: 'two dangerous and ruthless men.'"
Why You'll Miss Tony Blair
TIME, 3 May 2007

"Mr Hoon also expressed regret over the government's claim in the run-up to war that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, which, he now accepts, turned out to be false. He said he had 'gradually come to the acceptance' the weapons did not exist. But he insisted the government had acted in good faith. He still does not understand why the intelligence proved to be false. 'I've been present at a number of meetings where the intelligence community was fixed, and looked in the eye and asked are you absolutely sure about this? And the answer came back 'Yes, absolutely sure'. Mr Hoon added: 'I saw intelligence from the first time I came into office, in May 1999 - week in, week out - that said Saddam had weapons of mass destruction  ... I have real difficulty in understanding why it was, over such a long period of time, we were told this and, moreover, why we acted upon it.... ' 'Whatever else I did, even if say people say it was catastrophically wrong, I wouldn't agree with it, but I could live with it. But I can't live with the idea that I was telling lies, because I wasn't."
Hoon admits fatal errors in planning for postwar Iraq
Guardian, 2 May 2007
(see 1997 below for the answer to Hoon's puzzlement)

1998

"The merger of BP and Amoco is creating one of the strongest energy and petrochemical companies in the world, with a market capitalisation of $110bn and interests in more than 70 countries world wide. Before the deal, BP boasted a turnover of £43.5bn ($71bn), had 56,450 employees world wide and produced 1.25m barrels oil per day. The Amoco merger propels BP into a new dimension and is possibly the high point in the history of the company which was first registered in 1909 under the name Anglo-Persian Oil. But the company's origins go back to 1901, when a wealthy Englishman, William Knox D'Arcy, ventured into the Iranian desert to search for oil....1951 was a crucial year in the company's history. Iran decided to nationalise the company's assets, which back then were the UK's largest single investment overseas. Three years later the conflict was resolved - in the same year that the company was renamed British Petroleum Company.....The Iranian crisis had convinced BP that it had to broaden its activities. In the following years the company started explorations in other Middle East countries, like Kuwait, Libya and Iraq. But its most important moves were into the North Sea and Alaska in the 1960s. Finding oil in British waters and discovering the biggest oilfield in the United States at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska transformed the company....A new management, under Lord Simon of Highbury, Peter Sutherland and later Sir John Browne, set tough targets for debt reduction, profitability and cost-cutting. Four years later profits trebled, and BP had managed a turn-around - moving from the bottom of the industry into the top quarter. Now, 97 years after William Knox D'Arcy set off to explore the Iranian desert, the company has transformed itself into BP Amoco, one of the world's largest oil producers, and Britain's largest company."
Business: The Company File From Anglo-Persian Oil to BP Amoco
BBC Online, 11 August 1998

"[Azerbaijani dictator President] Aliyev's arrival was welcomed by Britain and America, which have a strategic interest in securing oil rights.... Blair gave [Aliyev] red-carpet treatment when he visited London in 1998 to sign a friendship treaty and $13 billion (£9.5 billion) in contracts with BP and other British firms...."
BP accused of backing 'arms for oil' coup
Sunday Times, 26 March 2000

"It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Tomorrow New Labour’s ethical policy will drown symbolically in a poisonous cocktail of blood and oil when the Queen shakes hands with Azerbaijan’s President Aliev. Her Majesty may be forgiven for thinking this is one export-driven photo-opportunity too many. The Queen has dutifully entertained tyrants of all stripes but she has never had to shake hands with a SMERSH agent before.... Today, as President of Azerbaijan his secret police regularly arrest scores of critics allegedly plotting against him and thousands languish in his old haunts, the ex-KGB prisons. Others simply disappear. Yet Aliev’s Azerbaijan is respectable. There is one word to explain this bizarre fact: Oil.... Azeri democracy was uniquely Aliev-style.... oil decreed that Aliev had won 98.9% of the votes - a modest 1% fall from his last Soviet-era total... A gaggle of ex-Tory MPs and former Foreign Office diplomats know the value of keeping in with Aliev. So does a host of stars of George Bush’s Administration... [now] Tony Blair is wining and dining Aliev..."
Aliev In Britain
Daily Mail, 20 July 1998

"Lord Browne took over at BP, nicknamed 'Blair Petroleum' on account of its intense new Labour contacts, in 1995, one year after Mr Blair became the opposition leader. [Lord Browne] was knighted in 1998 and made a life peer by Mr Blair in 2001. The friendship and cooperation has been close."
BP was nicknamed ‘Blair Petroleum’
London Times, 2 May 2007

"'Blair started talking about getting rid of Saddam Hussein way before September 11 ... in 1998. So I think that on Iraq he was more ready than Bush, who only really came into this conversation after 9/11."
Lady Catherine Meyer, wife of former British US Ambassador, Christopher Meyer
Independent, 20 March 2007

1997

"The friendship and cooperation has been close. In 1997 the Prime Minister loaned Number 10 to Lord Browne for a deal-signing ceremony between BP and Sidanco, a Russian oil company."
BP was nicknamed ‘Blair Petroleum’
London Times, 2 May 2007

"Tony Blair yesterday appointed Sir David Simon, one of the country's most pro-European industrialists, as a minister responsible for promoting British business in Brussels. Sir David, the chairman of British Petroleum and a strong advocate of the single currency, was made Minister for Trade and Competitiveness in Europe. The new post is attached to the Department of Trade and Industry and the Treasury. The Queen will give Sir David a peerage to allow him to carry out his role. He resigned from BP yesterday to dedicate himself to Government, but he will not draw the £31,125 salary. The Prime Minister said the appointment of a top industrialist to a key Government post showed his determination to build 'a modern and dynamic economy in partnership with business.'"
BP chairman to be EU Minister
Daily Telegraph, 8 May 1997

"Last September 24th, as Congress prepared to vote on the resolution authorizing President George W. Bush to wage war in Iraq, a group of senior intelligence officials, including George Tenet, the Director of Central Intelligence, briefed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iraq’s weapons capability.....According to two of those present at the briefing.... this time the argument that Iraq had a nuclear program under way was buttressed by a new and striking fact: the C.I.A. had recently received intelligence showing that, between 1999 and 2001, Iraq had attempted to buy five hundred tons of uranium oxide from Niger, one of the world’s largest producers... On the same day, in London, Tony Blair’s government made public a dossier containing much of the information that the Senate committee was being given in secret—that Iraq had sought to buy 'significant quantities of uranium' from an unnamed African country... President Bush cited the uranium deal, along with the aluminum tubes, in his State of the Union Message, on January 28th, while crediting Britain as the source of the information: The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought 'significant quantities of uranium from Africa.'....Then the story fell apart. On March 7th, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in Vienna, told the U.N. Security Council that the documents involving the Niger-Iraq uranium sale were fakes.... Some I.A.E.A. investigators.... speculated that MI6—the branch of British intelligence responsible for foreign operations—had become involved, perhaps through contacts in Italy.... Forged documents and false accusations have been an element in U.S. and British policy toward Iraq at least since the fall of 1997, after an impasse over U.N. inspections....A former Clinton Administration official told me that London had resorted to, among other things, spreading false information about Iraq. The British propaganda program—part of its Information Operations, or I/Ops—was known to a few senior officials in Washington.... dozens of unverified and unverifiable intelligence reports and tips—data known as inactionable intelligence—[were] to be funnelled to MI6 operatives and quietly passed along to newspapers in London and elsewhere. 'It was intelligence that was crap, and that we couldn’t move on, but the Brits wanted to plant stories in England and around the world,' the former officer said. There was a series of clandestine meetings with MI6, at which documents were provided, as well as quiet meetings, usually at safe houses in the Washington area..... None of the past and present officials I spoke with were able to categorically state that the fake Niger documents were created or instigated by the same propaganda office in MI6 that had been part of the anti-Iraq propaganda wars in the late nineteen-nineties (An MI6 intelligence source declined to comment.)....[However] What is generally agreed upon, a congressional intelligence-committee staff member told me, is that the Niger documents were initially circulated by the British—President Bush said as much in his State of the Union speech—and that 'the Brits placed more stock in them than we did.' It is also clear, as the former high-level intelligence official told me, that 'something as bizarre as Niger raises suspicions everywhere.'... "
WHO LIED TO WHOM?
New Yorker, 24 March 2003

"The Secret Intelligence Service has run an operation to gain public support for sanctions and the use of military force in Iraq. The government yesterday confirmed that MI6 had organised Operation Mass Appeal, a campaign to plant stories in the media about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. The revelation will create embarrassing questions for Tony Blair in the run-up to the publication of the report by Lord Hutton into the circumstances surrounding the death of Dr David Kelly, the government weapons expert. A senior official admitted that MI6 had been at the heart of a campaign launched in the late 1990s to spread information about Saddam's development of nerve agents and other weapons, but denied that it had planted misinformation. 'There were things about Saddam's regime and his weapons that the public needed to know, said the official. The admission followed claims by Scott Ritter, who led 14 inspection missions in Iraq, that MI6 had recruited him in 1997 to help with the propaganda effort. He described meetings where the senior officer and at least two other MI6 staff had discussed ways to manipulate intelligence material. 'The aim was to convince the public that Iraq was a far greater threat than it actually was,' Ritter said last week. He said there was evidence that MI6 continued to use similar propaganda tactics up to the invasion of Iraq earlier this year. 'Stories ran in the media about secret underground facilities in Iraq and ongoing programmes (to produce weapons of mass destruction),' said Ritter. 'They were sourced to western intelligence and all of them were garbage.' .....Blair justified his backing for sanctions and for the invasion of Iraq on the grounds that intelligence reports showed Saddam was working to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. The use of MI6 as a 'back channel' for promoting the government's policies on Iraq was never discovered during the Hutton inquiry and is likely to cause considerable disquiet among MPs. A key figure in Operation Mass Appeal was Sir Derek Plumbly, then director of the Middle East department at the Foreign Office and now Britain's ambassador to Egypt. Plumbly worked closely with MI6 to help to promote Britain's Middle East policy. The campaign was judged to be having a successful effect on public opinion. MI6 passed on intelligence that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction and rebuilding its arsenal. Poland, India and South Africa were initially chosen as targets for the campaign because they were non-aligned UN countries not supporting the British and US position on sanctions. At the time, in 1997, Poland was also a member of the UN security council. Ritter was a willing accomplice to the alleged propaganda effort when first approached by MI6's station chief in New York. He obtained approval to co-operate from Richard Butler, then executive chairman of the UN Special Commission on Iraq Disarmament. Ritter met MI6 to discuss Operation Mass Appeal at a lunch in London in June 1998 at which two men and a woman from MI6 were present. The Sunday Times is prevented by the Official Secrets Act from publishing their names. Ritter had previously met the MI6 officer at Vauxhall Cross, the service's London headquarters. He asked Ritter for information on Iraq that could be planted in newspapers in India, Poland and South Africa from where it would 'feed back' to Britain and America. Ritter opposed the Iraq war but this is the first time that he has named members of British intelligence as being involved in a propaganda campaign. He said he had decided to 'name names' because he was frustrated at 'an official cover-up' and the 'misuse of intelligence'. 'What MI6 was determined to do by the selective use of intelligence was to give the impression that Saddam still had WMDs or was making them and thereby legitimise sanctions and military action against Iraq,' he said."
Revealed: how MI6 sold the Iraq war
Sunday Times, 28 December 2003

1995

"Lord Browne took over at BP, nicknamed 'Blair Petroleum' on account of its intense new Labour contacts, in 1995, one year after Mr Blair became the opposition leader. "
BP was nicknamed ‘Blair Petroleum’
London Times, 2 May 2007

"A private intelligence firm with close links to MI6 spied on environmental campaign groups to collect information for oil companies, including Shell and BP. MPs are to demand an inquiry by Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, into whether the secret intelligence service used the firm as a front to spy on green activists. The firm's agent, who posed as a left-wing sympathizer and film maker, was asked to betray plans of Greenpeace's activities against oil giants. He also tried to dupe Anita Roddick's Body Shop group to pass on information about its opposition to Shell drilling for oil in a Nigerian tribal land. The Sunday Times has seen documents which show that the spy, German-born Manfred Schlickenrieder, was hired by Hakluyt, an agency that operates from offices in London's West End. Schlickenrieder was hired by Mike Reynolds, a director of Hakluyt and MI6's former head of station in Germany. His cover was blown by a female colleague who had worked with him. Last night he refused to comment. Reynolds and other MI6 executives left the intelligence service after the cold war ended to form Hakluyt in 1995. It was set up with the blessing of Sir David Spedding, the then chief of MI6, who died last week. Christopher James, the managing director, had been head of the MI6 section that liaised with British firms. The firm, which takes its name from Richard Hakluyt, the Elizabethan geographer, assembled a foundation board of directors from the Establishment to oversee its activities, including Sir Fitzroy Maclean, Ian Fleming's model for James Bond. Baroness Smith, the widow of John Smith, the late Labour leader, was a director until the end of last year. The company has close links to the oil industry through Sir Peter Cazalet, the former deputy chairman of BP, who helped to establish Hakluyt before he retired, last year, and Sir Peter Holmes, former chairman of Shell, who is president of its foundation. MPs believe the affair poses serious questions about the blurring of the divisions between the secret service, a private intelligence company and the interests of big companies. Hakluyt refutes claims by some in the intelligence community that it was started by MI6 officers to carry out 'deniable' operations.... Hakluyt was reluctant to discuss its activities. Michael Maclay, one of the agency's directors and a former special adviser to Douglas Hurd when he was Conservative foreign minister, said: 'We don't ever talk about anything we do. We never go into any details of what we may or what we may not be doing.'"
MI6 'Firm' Spied on Green Groups
Sunday Times, 17 June 2001

1993
(Iraq Deja Vue - BP/MI6 Regime Change In Azerbaijan)

"A secret intelligence report accuses BP, Britain's biggest company, of backing a military coup which installed a ruthless KGB hardman in the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan. An intelligence officer says BP... later consolidated its position with the new regime when the middlemen arranged to supply the incoming government with military equipment in an 'arms-for-oil' deal.... Aliyev's arrival was welcomed by Britain and America, which have a strategic interest in securing oil rights. BP has close links to British intelligence and employs several former MI6 officers... The Turkish intelligence document, a report on the alleged role of BP and Amoco in the events surrounding the 1993 uprising, claims the companies were 'behind the coup' in which president Abulfaz Elchibey was overthrown and some 40 people died. The report says: 'As a result of our intelligence efforts, it has been understood that two petrol giants BP and Amoco, British and American respectively, which together forms the AIOC [Azerbaijan International Oil Consortium], are behind the coup d'état carried out against Elchibey in 1993.... Lord Simon of Highbury, Tony Blair's former trade minister... was BP's group chief executive at the time of the coup..."
BP accused of backing 'arms for oil' coup
Sunday Times, 26 March 2000

"In September 1992, BP pulled off a coup that unnerved its competitors and appeared to put the British firm back on top. Former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher arrived in Baku and handed the Azerbaijani government two BP checks totaling $30 million. The money was a down payment for a proven field called Chirag and for an unproven bloc called Shak-Deniz. To Azerbaijani officials, a deal with BP was tantamount to a deal with the British government; not only did visiting British officials lobby relentlessly for the company, but for months Britain's diplomatic mission to Azerbaijan had operated out of the BP offices."
A British 'Coup'
Washington Post, 4 October 1998

1989
(Fall Of Berlin Wall)

"Duplicity and chicanery are their stock-in-trade, so is it any surprise that spies sometimes break their own rules? More surprising is the mess that [MI6] the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) has made of dealing with Richard Tomlinson, a renegade spook whom it fired in 1995. Running a secret intelligence organisation is a difficult business, now that the moral discipline of the cold war has crumbled: when spying for your country is about making its big businesses richer, rather than subverting totalitarianism, patriotism may not be enough to keep a disgruntled ex-employee quiet."
Breach birth
The Economist, 25 January 2001

"With the end of the Cold War, MI6's role has fundamentally changed and it now has many more potential targets. Terrorist groups, and so-called 'rogue' states, are now high profile targets. Networks of new agents will be required as intelligence 'needs' constantly shift. Industrial espionage, furthering British trade interests has moved into the area of national interest. Gathering intelligence on friendly governments, obtaining advanced knowledge of their negotiating positions or changes in alliances, are also now ever more important targets for MI6. The Intelligence Services Act 1994 formerly acknowledged its existence.... R6 Industrial, Commercial & Financial. Worked closely with both the Treasury and the Bank of England, as well as Merchant Bankers such as Hill Samuel; Hambro's; Kleinwort Benson; Morgan Grenfell; Brandts; Cootes and the Midland. Solicitors firms such as Slaughter & May were also part of the network of important contacts, along with Thomas Cook; ICI; BP; Shell; Lonrho and RTZ."
The Mechanisms of an Oppressive State - UK Intelligence And Security Report
AFI Research, August 2003

"Britain came under unprecedented pressure from its European partners yesterday to reveal the extent of its involvement in a US-led spying network said to be used for industrial espionage. Portugal, the current holder of the European Union presidency, announced it would raise the issue at a forthcoming meeting of interior ministers, despite formal insistence from London that nothing illegal was taking place. Britain and the US both wrote to the EU's enterprise commissioner, Erkki Liikanen of Finland, to say that they were doing no wrong, but a heated European parliament debate on the Echelon electronic surveillance system left open the possibility that MEPs would demand a formal investigation into the allegations. And Britain's letter, written by its EU ambassador Sir Stephen Wall, fuelled speculation by referring to 'safeguarding the nation's economic well-being' as one of the reasons for which telecommunications could be legally intercepted. But he denied that British facilities were used by other states to gain commercial advantage. Echelon, established during the cold war and operated by the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, is reportedly capable of intercepting millions of telephone, fax and email messages. James Woolsey, who headed the CIA from 1993-95, has already admitted what to many had long seemed obvious - that the US secretly collects information on European firms.... Until yesterday, Echelon was a minor issue rumbling along almost unnoticed in the European parliament. But Portugal's surprise decision to raise it in the council of ministers puts it into a different league. It will alarm British ministers concerned about the image of an either-or-choice between the US or Europe. It will also boost interest in the intelligence services at a time when allegations about Libyan dirty tricks and the loss of laptops by secret agents is attracting unwelcome attention.... Duncan Campbell, the British investigative journalist, has claimed that the US used Echelon to beat the European consortium Airbus to a major plane deal with Saudi Arabia in 1994... Robert Evans, a Labour MEP, said British MEPs would block calls for an investigation."
Britain accused of aiding industrial espionage by US
Guardian, 31 March 2000

1956
(Lies For Oil - The British Prime Minister And His Foreign Intelligence Service)

"The underground bunkers beneath Whitehall had been busy since July, and the 'arthritic' British war machine was already creaking into action. A top-secret meeting at Sèvres between the three allies (the Israelis turning up in hats and dark glasses) to plot the final moves was foolishly recorded on paper. Eden was thrown into a panic. The French and Israelis refused to destroy their copies, but the evidence was clear: a squirming Eden was up to no good."
The long shadow
Guardian, 4 November 2006

"At the official level Eden's immediate response was refined both by Whitehall planning, lead by the Foreign Office, and by discussions with the US government.....  Britain's foreign intelligence service MI6 wanted to go much, much, further. Under the American Freedom of Information Act I've obtained a CIA memorandum from April 1st 1956. Presented for the first time in a documentary, it records two days of meetings between MI6 Deputy Director, George Young, and his CIA counterparts."
Professor Scot Lucas
Suez - The Missing Dimension
'Archive Hour' Interview, BBC Radio 4, 28 October 2006

"With hindsight it's clear that Eden was already committed to military action [against Egypt in 1956]. Approaching the problem through the United Nations was unlikely to work, since in international law Nasser probably was within his rights to nationalise the Suez Canal Company. With the likelihood of armed conflict in mind, in fact  Eden would ultimately engage in an illegal secret pact with France and Israel to provide a pretext to start it..... no one outside of a very few close confidants knew of Eden's single minded commitment to a military solution, and still less about the very secret plan hatched with the French and Israelis to provide a pretext for that military action to start.... Government preparations for war went largely unreported in detail having been the subject of two 'D' notices. That's the system by which press and broadcasters agree voluntarily to restrict reporting of matters relating to national security. Meanwhile unknown to any but his closest inner circle the plan for the Israelis to invade Egypt, thus allowing Britain and France to intervene on the pretext of keeping the waring sides apart, was ready to be put into action."
'A Comfort to the Enemy'
BBC Archive Hour, Saturday 4 November 2006 20:00-21:00 (Radio 4 FM)

"The Suez Crisis, which occurred 50 years ago, was the full stop at the end of the British Empire......Middle Eastern oil was as essential, in 1956 as now, to the economy and security of the United States, Europe and world trade..... Only in October did Eden adopt the joint Anglo-French-Israeli plan that was indeed a disaster.....  The world community had an essential interest in the free flow of oil through the canal."
Lord William Rees-Mogg
Suez: why I blame it on Ike
London Times, 24 July 2006

"The intelligence dossiers which asserted that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction represented the agreed truth at the time - shared by '90% of the world', including Hans Blix - but they failed to reflect the 'thinness' of some of the sources, Lord Butler of Brockwell told MPs yesterday. Making a skilful defence of his much-criticised report into the pre-war intelligence, Lord Butler insisted that no one - neither Tony Blair nor John Scarlett, now head of M16 - could be held responsible.... The circulation of papers to cabinet ministers before their Thursday meetings - which his committee said should be improved - had been declining since 1945. Faced with the charge that the decision to go to war was the most personal by a prime minister since Sir Anthony Eden invaded Suez in 1956, Lord Butler countered that Lady Thatcher had done the same over the Falklands crisis."
'No one to blame' for flaws in Iraq dossier, Butler tells MPs
Guardian, 22 October 2004

1953
Britain's Long Tradition Of Foreign Policy Scheming
To Prop Up BP As Cash Cow For UK Economy

"He was the Sun King: the brightest star in British business, a global power and an adored confidant of prime ministers. Then, last week, he managed to lose both his job and his reputation....On Monday evening Lord Browne of Madingley, then still chief executive of BP, gathered a few close friends for dinner at his home in Chelsea. The mood was sombre; for John Browne, who had entertained Tony Blair and Gordon Brown at the same table, this was a humble last supper....Dapper, diminutive and urbane, Browne has always seemed the antithesis of the Texan oilman portrayed in Hollywood films. But oil was in Browne's blood: his father, a former Army officer, worked for the Anglo-Persian oil company, the forerunner of BP."
End of the affair
Daily Telegraph, 5 May 2007

"Action of both houses of the Iranian Parliament in voting to nationalize the oil industry again had focused attention on the Middle East to which the center of gravity of the world's oil production is being shifted rapidly. Coming in the midst of negotiations with the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Ltd., to revise the present agreement, the proposed nationalization move may be for the purpose of getting better terms from that company, the only important factor in oil operations there. Since Anglo-Iranian is owned by British interests, with the British Government holding a majority of the stock, nationalization of the Iranian oil properties would be a severe blow to the British economy. With current production about 700,000 barrels of crude oil daily, the loss of revenue to the British would sharply reduce the amount of exchange available for the purchase of raw materials. Already hard pressed to obtain enough foreign exchange to make the necessary purchases of raw materials abroad, Britain had been relying largely on its foreign oil operations to meet the exchange deficiency over the next few years. To do this, a vast expansion of its Middle East oil operations, including those in Iran, had been projected. Realizing the importance of Middle East oil to British economy, the United States Government, since the end of World War II, through Marshall Plan funds and other aid, has been pushing the expansion of refineries in Europe for the processing of that oil. Through this program, it had been hoped that by the end of 1952, Europe would have a refining capacity capable of meeting its oil needs and that the crude oil to be processed by the refineries would come from the Middle East where British interests have roughly one-half of its estimated petroleum reserves, which represent probably one-third of the world's total. Involved in the proposed Iranian nationalization project is the world's largest refinery at Abadan. Processing around 560,000 barrels of crude oil daily, this refinery manufactures a complete line of petroleum products, ranging from aviation gasoline to heavy fuel oil. Although some of the products are moved through the Suez Canal to the United Kingdom and Europe, a large part are marketed in India and Pakistan, other areas in the Far East, Australia and Africa. The British have been active in the development of Iranian oil resources for the past half century. The original concession was obtained by W. K. D'arcy in 1901. Soon after the discovery of the first production in 1908, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, now the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, was formed. A pipeline from the discovery site to Abadan was completed in 1911 when the new refinery also was placed in operation. During World War I, Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, placed a long-term contract with the company for fuel oil. Simultaneously the British Government also bought a majority stock interest in the company."
World Eyes Iran on Oil Seizure Bid
New York Times, 25 March 1951

"Fifty years ago this week, the CIA and the British SIS [MI6] orchestrated a coup d'etat that toppled the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mossadegh [in Iran]. The prime minister and his nationalist supporters in parliament roused Britain's ire when they nationalised the oil industry in 1951, which had previously been exclusively controlled by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company [later renamed as BP]. Mossadegh argued that Iran should begin profiting from its vast oil reserves. The British government tried to enlist the Americans in planning a coup... The crushing of Iran's first democratic government ushered in more than two decades of dictatorship under the Shah... The author of All the Shah's Men, New York Times reporter Stephen Kinzer, argues that the coup planted the seeds of resentment against the US in the Middle East, ultimately leading to the events of September 11.... The coup and the culture of covert interference it created forever changed how the world viewed the US, especially in poor, oppressive countries. For many Iranians, the coup was a tragedy from which their country has never recovered. Perhaps because Mossadegh represents a future denied, his memory has approached myth."
The spectre of Operation Ajax
Guardian, 20 August 2003

More Details
New York Times document web archive - Click Here
US National Security Archive at George Washington University - Click Here

UK
'Peak Oil' Road Show

Pioneering Welsh Town
Begins The Transition To A Life Without Oil

"Lampeter is the first in a nationwide series of public meetings on making the transition from ‘cheap oil’ the Soil Association is supporting through its ‘One Planet Agriculture’ campaign..... The Soil Association is holding a nationwide series of public meetings on making the transition from ‘cheap oil’ to ‘peak oil’.Here is an account of the first meeting from Robin Maynard, director of communications for the Soil Association... [click here to read account].... Lampeter is the first in a nationwide series of public meetings on making the transition from ‘cheap oil’ the Soil Association is supporting through its ‘One Planet Agriculture’ campaign."
Soil Association starts nationwide series of meetings on 'peak oil' problem
Farmers Weekly Interactive, 11 April 2007

Harnessing Nature's Giant Power House
Solar Quantum Dot And Film Technology Rising Over The Horizon

"Rice University scientists today revealed a breakthrough method for producing molecular specks of semiconductors called quantum dots, a discovery that could clear the way for better, cheaper solar energy panels. The research, by scientists at Rice's Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology (CBEN), appears this week in the journal Small. It describes a new chemical method for making four-legged cadmium selenide quantum dots, which previous research has shown to be particularly effective at converting sunlight into electrical energy. 'Our work knocks down a big barrier in developing quantum-dot-based photovoltaics as an alternative to the conventional, more expensive silicon-based solar cells,' said paper co-author and principal investigator Michael Wong, assistant professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering.... Prior research by others has shown that four-legged quantum dots, which are called tetrapods, are many times more efficient at converting sunlight into electricity than regular quantum dots. But, Wong said the problem is that there is still no good way of producing tetrapods. Current methods lead to a lot of particles with uneven-length arms, crooked arms, and even missing arms. Even in the best recipe, 30 percent of the prepared particles are not tetrapods, he said. CBEN's formula, which was developed by Wong and his graduate student Subashini Asokan with CBEN Director Vicki Colvin and graduate student Karl Krueger, produces same-sized particles, in which more than 90 percent are tetrapods."
Quantum Dot Recipe May Lead To Cheaper Solar Panels
ScienceDaily, 4 May 2007

"Within five years, solar power will be cheap enough to compete with carbon-generated electricity, even in Britain, Scandinavia or upper Siberia. In a decade, the cost may have fallen so dramatically that solar cells could undercut oil, gas, coal and nuclear power by up to half. Technology is leaping ahead of a stale political debate about fossil fuels. Anil Sethi, the chief executive of the Swiss start-up company Flisom, says he looks forward to the day - not so far off - when entire cities in America and Europe generate their heating, lighting and air-conditioning needs from solar films on buildings with enough left over to feed a surplus back into the grid. The secret? Mr Sethi lovingly cradles a piece of dark polymer foil, as thin a sheet of paper. It is 200 times lighter than the normal glass-based solar materials, which require expensive substrates and roof support. Indeed, it is so light it can be stuck to the sides of buildings. Rather than being manufactured laboriously piece by piece, it can be mass-produced in cheap rolls like packaging - in any colour. Rather than being manufactured laboriously piece by piece, it can be mass-produced in cheap rolls like packaging - in any colour. The 'tipping point' will arrive when the capital cost of solar power falls below $1 (51p) per watt, roughly the cost of carbon power. We are not there yet. The best options today vary from $3 to $4 per watt - down from $100 in the late 1970s. Mr Sethi believes his product will cut the cost to 80 cents per watt within five years, and 50 cents in a decade. It is based on a CIGS (CuInGaSe2) semiconductor compound that absorbs light by freeing electrons. This is then embedded on the polymer base. It will be ready commercially in late 2009. 'It'll even work on a cold, grey, cloudy day in England, which still produces 25pc to 30pc of the optimal light level. That is enough, if you cover half the roof,' he said. 'We don't need subsidies, we just need governments to get out of the way and do no harm. They've spent $170bn subsidising nuclear power over the last thirty years,' he said. His ultra-light technology, based on a copper indium compound, can power mobile phones and laptop computers with a sliver of foil.... The sector is poised to outstrip wind power. It is a remarkable boom for a technology long dismissed by experts as hopelessly unviable.... Mike Splinter, chief executive of the US semiconductor group Applied Materials, told me his company is two years away from a solar product that reaches the magic level of $1 a watt. Cell conversion efficiency and economies of scale are galloping ahead so fast that the cost will be down to 70 US cents by 2010, with a target of 30 or 40 cents in a decade.... 'The beauty of this is that you can use it in rural areas of India without having to lay down power lines or truck in fuel.' Villages across Asia and Africa that have never seen electricity may soon leapfrog directly into the solar age, replicating the jump to mobile phones seen in countries that never had a network of fixed lines. As a by-product, India's rural poor will stop blanketing the subcontinent with soot from tens of millions of open stoves."
Monday view: Cheap solar power poised to undercut oil and gas by half
Daily Telegraph, 18 February 2007

But Meantime Pressures Continue To Build
Peak Oil 'Newsbites'

'Peak Oil'
GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS LOOMING
www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm

"My view is that 'easy' oil has probably passed its peak."
Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell
Financial Times, 24 January 2006

NATURAL LAW PARTY WESSEX
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