Monsanto 'MAB' progress reinforces positive FAO world food forecast

Wheat yield increases set to double

(the address of this page is www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/monsantomab.htm )

May 2001

A report in the UK's Farming News 10 May on developments in marker assisted breeding (MAB) at Monsanto adds further support to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) positive prognosis on the world's ability to feed its growing population until at least 2030 without reliance on the use of genetically engineered crops and animals.

In a news release 24 July 2000 on its latest report on global food needs and provision the FAO commented: "Can the world produce enough food to meet global demands? The answer is yes, according to a new report from FAO's Global Perspectives Studies Unit....[which] forecasts trends in food, nutrition and agriculture over the next 30 years."

Although including a brief discussion on their potential benefits and risks, significantly the quantitative analysis carried out by the FAO report did not include any contribution to global food output from GM crops due to ongoing uncertainties regarding agronomic performance, biosafety and consumer acceptance. The positive prognosis of the FAO report is based on anticipated conventional crop trends.

Nonetheless, the FAO report highlights a number of factors which are particularly relevant to the subsequent developments in conventional plant breeding that are now emerging out of Monsanto's MAB programme for wheat:

1. Cereals will continue to supply more than 50% of food consumption until at least 2030. [1]
   
   
2. Food consumption of wheat grew the fastest of all cereals in the past and will continue to do so. [2]
   
   
3. Wheat consumption per capita will continue to increase in developing countries. [3]
   
   
4. This situation will arise despite the expectation that for developing countries the growth rate in yields for conventional cereal crops for the period to 2030 will fall to 1.0 % per annum compared with the 2.5% per annum in the preceding 1961-97 period ; and to 0.8% from 2.1% for the world as a whole (annual growth in aggregate production for all crops will fall to 1.3% from 2.2%, but will still outstrip population expansion). [4]

In recent years 'life-science' companies have developed something of a reputation for failing to deliver on their promises with genetic engineering applications. Nonetheless, if they prove to be reliable the latest claims from Monsanto in respect of its MAB wheat breeding programme would indicate that even the overtly positive outcome from the FAO predictions for conventional crop production between now and 2030 will substantially underestimate actual future output levels.

In Farming News Monsanto predicts that its MAB programme could generate annual growth rates in wheat yields which are in fact more than double those used in the encouraging FAO projections. Moreover, it seems increasingly likely that these developments will simultaneously provide spin-off applications for conventional breeding programmes in other major staple crops.

According to Monsanto's Dr Peter Jack: "There may be some mechanisms common to all crops that contribute to major characteristics, such as yield, but genes that control yield are complex. In the past, the number of samples that could be analysed limited exploitation of DNA marker technology. Automation has greatly increased throughput, so projects that until recently seemed impossible are now feasible."

The MAB developments at Monsanto follow similar advances at Syngenta in relation to conventional oilseed rape breeding reported in the UK farming press the week previously. These advances represent an application of modern biotechnology which is likely to achieve public acceptability in a way which those promoting methods which incorporate recombinant DNA into farm plants and animals are finding increasingly difficult to emulate.

NATURAL LAW PARTY WESSEX
nlpwessex@bigfoot.com
www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex

Footnotes:
[1] "Agriculture Towards 2015/30", FAO, 2000, p35
[2] Ibid, p36
[3] Ibid, p61
[4] Ibid, p25, 95, 96, 119

Full 'Farming News' Article on Monsanto's MAB wheat breeding programme - click here
More on MAB

Dismantling the myth of genetics as the principal constraint on responsible global agricultural production

Letter to Director General of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation - June 2001