Answers


1. NS Vul

Contract 6C. Lead D6 to E's Q. Your plan?

A key hand from the first set as only Stuart and Richard reached 6C.
Fortunately, Keith found the D lead. Stuart drew trumps in two rounds (I
believe) before playing on spades. When spades split 4-2, he did not have
enough entries to dummy to get back there to cash the 5th round, so he was
one off. So his line needs spades 3-3.

I think the best line is to play on spades immediately, ruffing the 3rd
round high (unless E shows out, of course). If spades are 3-3, you are home
and dry unless E has all 4 trumps. If W shows out, as here, you cross to CA,
ruff another spade high, cross to dummy with a top trump, relying on 2-2
break, pitch a D on the last spade and play on hearts.

I think this is around a 51% chance whereas drawing trumps first is only
32%. Note that you cannot draw even one single round of trumps before
attacking the spades.

2. Love All

1C P 1D 2H
3H P 3N All Pass

Contract 3N. Lead HQ on which E throws C5 (reverse count). Your plan?

I decided to play a spade to the 5, Q and 3 (reverse count), then DA (to 4,
3 and 9), then D7 to 8 and went up with DQ, losing to the K and another H
came back (C2 discarded). Now what?

If oppos are being honest, the diamonds are not breaking and E probably has
D105 left. His most likely shape is 4045 with CA unless he's ducked SK. If
that's correct, playing off DJ and repeating the spade finesse won't be good
enough. E can't be effectively thrown in. You can only get three spades, two
diamonds, two hearts and one club that way. I tried this line and went one
off.

Instead, if you read the cards right, you can cash DJ and run C8, overtaking
with the 9. E wins with the 10 and cashes D10 but there are sufficient spade
entries to knock out CA and get back for the established C7. That way you
just lose two tricks in each red suit. I think I should have found this
line.

On a good day I might also have ducked the 2nd round of diamonds but as W
appears to have 6 points in the majors already for his WJO, I thought I was
better off playing for a 3-3 break. It looks a doubtful decision now so this
was definitely my worst hand of the day.

3. EW Vul

1C 1H
1S 3S (!)
4S

Contract: 4S. Lead D8 Your plan?

Say you win in dummy (E plays the 6) and lead S2, to 3, 9 and Ace. D2 goes
to E's Q and a small trump comes back - they split 3-2. What next?

Chasing a 20 IMP deficit, some optimistic bidding from Richard had propelled
Stuart into the thin game. With so few entries to dummy, Stuart decided to
take a deep finesse in trumps on the first round and was rewarded with a
very favourable lie. But he still had a lot of work to do after drawing my
last trump.

The winning line, as the cards lie, is to play CA and another club to the Q,
hoping to find CK doubleton somewhere, compel a H lead (or a ruff and
discard) and so avoid losing a H. With W holding CK doubleton, as here, you
also need a good guess in H, without that many clues to go on.

Stuart tried HA and another instead. Rob went up with his King and led
another heart. Stuart correctly went up with HQ, dropping my Jack, cashed
H10 but still needed CK singleton or doubleton in my hand. His luck ran out
at this point. But was this the better line?

Stuart can certainly plead bad luck on the grounds that if the cards are as
they turn out to lie, I should have returned a heart rather than a passive
trump when in with DQ. Even if declarer has HKxx and I have given him three
easy H tricks, it can't make the difference between making and going off. A
pretty defensive problem and poor defence by me!

Postscript: Stuart informs me he had CAJ10xx not AJ9xx so I can see why he
played as he did. Not such an interesting hand though!

4. Love All

1D 1S X 3S
P 4S All Pass

Contract 4S. D8 led. Your plan?

Say you win in dummy (E encourages) and lead H6 to 5, K and 2 (rev. count),
you cash HA (9, 6, 3) and ruff the 3rd round with S4 (W plays the 10, E the
J). So far so good, but now what?

I can be fairly sure the last H is with W because of the Sputnik double and
the signalling but I still seem to have about four plausible options:

(1) I can ruff a diamond, then ruff a H with the 10.
(2) I can cross to SA and ruff the last H with SQ.
(3) I can lead SQ, intending to run it.
(4) Defer the decision by playing on clubs.

(1) looks attractive at first but may not work on the actual lie. E can
over-ruff with SK, lead C10 to pard's Q, small club back to the King and
then revert to diamonds for the trump promotion. Alternatively, he leads DK
(I pitch a club), he cashes CK and he reverts to D - same effect, I think.

(3) is a line that maymake as the cards lie. Say E covers SQ: I win and ruff
my last H with the10. I now ruff a D back to hand and lead S9, relying on
the 2-2 split. If W had SJ75, then the trump promotion will still
beat me.

(4) means I'm likely to see another D come through dummy's J and it's hard
to see how it improves my chances of avoiding a trump promotion. Too deep
for me anyway.

(2) is the line I actually went for, failing as the cards lie.

Ignoring 4-0 spade breaks, which is best out of (2) and (3)?

(2) loses and (3) gains when W has SKx or either player has K singleton
(3) may lose and (2) may gain when W has SJx as here or a small singleton

BUT it is a mistake to assume that E will cover SQ with Kx or KJx. He should
see that ducking gives better chances. When SQ holds, what do you do? If you
cross to hand with a D ruff and ruff your last H, E (with Kx) overruffs and
gets the trump promotion. Alternatively, playing a 2nd trump off dummy makes
if trumps are 2-2 but fails if E had KJx. Hard to say which out of Kx and
KJx he is more likely to cover with, so it's a bit of a guess. In choosing
between (2) and (3), is this an example of PRC?

All in all I think the K singleton situations shift the odds back in favour
of (3). But I could stand corrected.